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Chart 5: French Sales of Manuf. Goods (3m avg)
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
Total (% 3m/3m annualised)
Sales excl. autos (% 3m/3m annualised)
-12
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep
07 08 09 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
Volume index Dec (f) Nov Oct Dec 09
SA-WDA
% m/m -0.5 2.8 -0.6 1.4
% y/y -0.3 1.5 -0.3 5.4
Key Point:
The surge in sales seen in November should be
partly corrected in December, despite very strong
car sales.
BNP Paribas Forecast: Correction
France: Hh Consumption of Manuf. Goods (December)
Release Date: Tuesday 25 January
Retail sales of manufactured goods were extremely strong
in November, rising 2.8% m/m. This was due to a
combination of favourable factors. Christmas shopping
started early, cold weather favoured sales of winter clothes
and shoes (+2.9% m/m) and, most importantly, car sales
soared 14.9% m/m. Since that gain was triggered by the
prospect of the end of the car sales incentive (EUR 500 per
car), car sales will increase further in December. However
sales will remain below end-2009 levels as the incentive
was twice that amount at the time.
The decline in sales of other items should outweigh the
positive impact of car sales in December. Sales of
electronic items seem to have lost momentum in the last
few months. The cold weather may have maintained
demand for clothes and shoes, but the level of sales has
probably eased. In any case, snowy and icy weather surely
curbed sales in the week leading up to Christmas, with little
prospect of catch-up thereafter. This slower pace of sales
in the second half of December likely continued into early
January, in particular because of the late official starting
date for the seasonal sales.
The correction of the November surge is thus likely to be
split over the following two months.
Chart 6: US Consumer Confidence
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
Jan (f) Jan 2H Jan p Dec
Conference Board 54.0 - - 52.5
Michigan Sentiment 73.5 74.3 72.7 74.5
BNP Paribas Forecast: Up
US: Consumer Confidence (January)
Release Date: Tuesday 25 January
The Conference Board Index of Consumer Confidence
dropped to 52.5 from 54.3 in December. In January, we
expect a partial rebound in the index to 54.0. While
consumer confidence measures have struggled to find a
consistent upward path lately, it should continue trending
upward as the economy continues to expand and the
labour market gradually improves. Indeed, according to the
latest Beige Book, “Labor markets in most Districts appear
to be firming somewhat”. In addition, earlier this month, the
latest weekly index of consumer sentiment by Langer
Research Associates (formerly known as the ABC News
Consumer Confidence Index), increased to the highest
level since 2008. However, certain factors such as surging
gasoline prices and high unemployment rates should
continue to limit confidence from accelerating above the
recent trend.
Key Point:
In January, we expect a partial rebound in the
Conference Board index to 54.0 after the previous
month’s decline.
Market Economics 20 January 2011
Market Mover
73
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