Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

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Chart 2: US Dollar Index (DXY) – Double-top targets a decline towards 76.25 DXY posted a doubletop during Nov/Jan, 89 88.35 now favouring a deeper medium-term 87 decline toward the 76.25 double-top 85 83.55 objective. Accelerating 83 bearish weekly 81.45 momentum risks an 81 even larger dive towards 75.50 and 79 80.10 potentially 74. Use short-term rebounds 77 towards 79.50-80.00 75.65 75 resistance to initiate 31-May-10 28-Jul-10 24-Sep-10 23-Nov-10 DXY short positions. Source: BNP Paribas USDMXN has posted a sharp decline during the past 6 weeks breaking long-term 12.0440 Fibonacci support and trading at levels last seen during the Lehman crisis. This decline saw USDMXN become deeply oversold. We now expect a rebound off the recent 11.9440 low towards the 12.17-12.23 area. Source: BNP Paribas USDTRY has broken sharply lower through November’s major uptrend support. The bearish trend reversal has been validated by the further break below 1.5375 key support. We now expect a multi-week decline towards 1.5150-1.49. Use short-term rallies towards the 1.56-1.57 area to enter sell setup. Chart 3: USDMXN – Rebounding off multi-year low 13.60 13.40 13.20 13.00 12.80 12.60 12.40 12.20 12.00 11.80 11.60 13.40 31-May-10 12.10 13.20 12.45 28-Jul-10 13.25 24-Sep-10 12.15 Chart 4: USDTRY – Breaking lower through major uptrend 1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.5965 21-May-10 1.6065 1.4810 20-Jul-10 1.5355 16-Sep-10 1.3830 12.60 23-Nov-10 1.5920 19-Nov-10 81.30 20-Jan-11 11.95 20-Jan-11 1.5935 20-Jan-11 Source: BNP Paribas Andrew Chaveriat 20 January 2011 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 64 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Currency Spot Trade Recommendations Date NOKSEK 1.1355 Sell 1.1360, stop 1.1440, target 1.1060 20 Jan 2011 AUDMXN 11.930 Sell 11.980, stop 12.120, target 11.600 20 Jan 2011 AUDUSD 0.9890 Short at 1.0050, stop 1.0150, target 0.9420 19 Jan 2011 AUDCAD 0.9900 Short at 0.9995, stop 1.0090, target 0.9460 19 Jan 2011 USDCHF 0.9630 Long at 0.9560, stop 0.9460, target 0.9990 18 Jan 2011 USDJPY 82.70 Long at 82.40, stop 81.40, target 85.40 17 Jan 2011 USDKZT 146.95 Short at 147.00, stop at 149.50, target 135.00 28 May 2010 Source: BNP Paribas Andrew Chaveriat 20 January 2011 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 65 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
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Market Economics | Interest Rate St
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The obvious focal point is the Summ
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such shocks at the moment, such as
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US monetary conditions, because the
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Chart 9: Asia- Ifo Expected Inflati
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President Bullard was generally sup
Page 13 and 14: Canada: Betting on Investment and E
Page 15 and 16: Eurozone Inflation: Forecast Revisi
Page 17 and 18: optimism on Germany, in last week
Page 19 and 20: On the basis of the relationship be
Page 21 and 22: The nominal policy rate and nominal
Page 23 and 24: households. Furthermore, the statis
Page 25 and 26: Norway: Norges Bank Preview • We
Page 27 and 28: Japan: New Cabinet and Policy Outlo
Page 29 and 30: Japan: Capex Outlook • Core machi
Page 31 and 32: US/EUR Spreads: Further Tightening
Page 33 and 34: US: Could the Short End Have a Puls
Page 35 and 36: Trades with higher hit ratio and Sh
Page 37 and 38: ange bound, as we expect, given tha
Page 39 and 40: EUR: Liquidity is No Stress • The
Page 41 and 42: EMU Debt Monitor: Trade Ideas • K
Page 43 and 44: EMU Debt Monitor: CDS Analysis Char
Page 45 and 46: EMU Debt Monitor: Redemptions • O
Page 47 and 48: EUR: Buy 3m5y Straddle vs 3m10y Str
Page 49 and 50: Global Inflation Watch Eurozone HIC
Page 51 and 52: Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 53 and 54: Inflation: With Supply Comes Opport
Page 55 and 56: Pricing Date Repo Rate Sett. Date T
Page 57 and 58: Germany 10y: MT 61.8% (3.12) break
Page 59 and 60: Travelling Asia • Inflation has e
Page 61 and 62: Capitalism requires business cycles
Page 63: EURUSD Rally Eyes 1.3750-1.3950 •
Page 67 and 68: than an unrelenting rise in prices
Page 69 and 70: Economic Calendar: 21 - 28 January
Page 71 and 72: Key Data Preview 120 115 110 105 10
Page 73 and 74: Key Data Preview Chart 5: French Sa
Page 75 and 76: Key Data Preview 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
Page 77 and 78: Key Data Preview 3 2 1 0 -1 Chart 1
Page 79 and 80: Economic Calendar: 31 Jan - 25 Feb
Page 81 and 82: Next Week's T-Bills Supply Date Cou
Page 83 and 84: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2010 20
Page 85 and 86: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa
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