Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts
Eurozone
France
US
Headline HICP Ex-tobacco HICP
Headline CPI
Ex-tobacco CPI
CPI Urban SA CPI Urban NSA
Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y
2009 108.1 - 0.3 107.9 - 0.2 119.3 - 0.1 118.0 - 0.1 214.5 - -0.3 214.5 - -0.4
2010 109.8 - 1.6 109.5 - 1.5 121.1 - 1.5 119.8 - 1.5 218.1 - 1.6 218.1 - 1.6
2011 (1) 112.2 - 2.2 111.8 - 2.1 123.6 - 2.0 122.1 - 1.9 221.4 - 1.5 221.3 - 1.5
Q1 2010 108.6 - 1.1 108.3 - 1.0 120.3 - 1.3 119.0 - 1.2 217.6 - 2.4 217.0 - 2.4
Q2 2010 110.0 - 1.5 109.7 - 1.4 121.3 - 1.6 120.0 - 1.5 217.2 - 1.8 218.1 - 1.8
Q3 2010 109.9 - 1.7 109.5 - 1.6 121.2 - 1.5 119.8 - 1.5 218.0 - 1.2 218.3 - 1.2
Q4 2010 110.8 - 2.0 110.5 - 1.9 121.7 - 1.6 120.2 - 1.6 219.4 - 1.2 218.9 - 1.3
Q1 2011 (1) 111.1 - 2.3 110.7 - 2.2 122.5 - 1.8 121.1 - 1.8 220.9 - 1.5 220.4 - 1.6
Q2 2011 (1) 112.1 - 1.9 111.7 - 1.8 123.5 - 1.8 122.0 - 1.7 221.2 - 1.8 222.0 - 1.8
Q3 2011 (1) 112.3 - 2.2 111.8 - 2.1 123.8 - 2.1 122.3 - 2.0 221.5 - 1.6 221.7 - 1.6
Q4 2011 (1) 113.3 - 2.3 112.9 - 2.2 124.4 - 2.3 122.9 - 2.2 221.8 - 1.1 221.2 - 1.1
Jul 10 109.7 -0.3 1.7 109.31 -0.4 1.7 121.0 -0.3 1.7 119.68 -0.3 1.6 217.6 0.3 1.3 218.01 0.0 1.2
Aug 10 109.9 0.2 1.6 109.54 0.2 1.5 121.3 0.2 1.4 119.97 0.2 1.3 218.2 0.3 1.2 218.31 0.1 1.1
Sep 10 110.1 0.2 1.8 109.76 0.2 1.7 121.2 -0.1 1.6 119.88 -0.1 1.5 218.4 0.1 1.1 218.44 0.1 1.1
Oct 10 110.5 0.4 1.9 110.16 0.4 1.8 121.4 0.1 1.6 120.03 0.1 1.5 218.9 0.2 1.2 218.71 0.1 1.2
Nov 10 110.6 0.1 1.9 110.27 0.1 1.8 121.5 0.1 1.6 120.09 0.0 1.5 219.1 0.1 1.1 218.80 0.0 1.1
Dec 10 111.3 0.6 2.2 110.93 0.6 2.1 122.1 0.5 1.8 120.61 0.4 1.7 220.3 0.5 1.4 219.18 0.2 1.5
Jan 11 (1) 110.6 -0.6 2.3 110.17 -0.7 2.2 122.1 0.0 2.0 120.58 0.0 1.9 220.8 0.3 1.5 219.95 0.4 1.5
Feb 11 (1) 111.0 0.4 2.4 110.56 0.4 2.3 122.5 0.4 1.8 121.07 0.4 1.7 221.1 0.1 1.6 220.29 0.2 1.6
Mar 11 (1) 111.7 0.6 2.1 111.27 0.6 2.0 123.0 0.4 1.7 121.53 0.4 1.6 220.9 -0.1 1.5 220.91 0.3 1.5
Apr 11 (1) 112.0 0.3 1.9 111.56 0.3 1.8 123.3 0.3 1.7 121.85 0.3 1.6 221.1 0.1 1.6 221.50 0.3 1.6
May 11 (1) 112.1 0.2 1.9 111.73 0.2 1.8 123.5 0.2 1.8 122.06 0.2 1.7 221.2 0.0 1.8 222.06 0.3 1.8
Jun 11 (1) 112.2 0.1 2.0 111.79 0.1 1.9 123.6 0.1 1.8 122.13 0.1 1.8 221.3 0.0 2.0 222.38 0.1 2.0
Jul 11 (1) 111.9 -0.2 2.1 111.49 -0.3 2.0 123.4 -0.2 2.0 121.93 -0.2 1.9 221.4 0.1 1.7 221.89 -0.2 1.8
Aug 11 (1) 112.3 0.3 2.2 111.84 0.3 2.1 123.9 0.4 2.1 122.40 0.4 2.0 221.5 0.0 1.5 221.69 -0.1 1.5
Sep 11 (1) 112.6 0.3 2.3 112.17 0.3 2.2 124.0 0.1 2.3 122.48 0.1 2.2 221.6 0.0 1.5 221.64 0.0 1.5
Oct 11 (1) 113.1 0.5 2.4 112.70 0.5 2.3 124.3 0.3 2.4 122.76 0.2 2.3 221.7 0.0 1.3 221.49 -0.1 1.3
Nov 11 (1) 113.2 0.1 2.4 112.78 0.1 2.3 124.4 0.1 2.4 122.83 0.1 2.3 221.8 0.1 1.2 221.36 -0.1 1.2
Dec 11 (1) 113.6 0.3 2.1 113.13 0.3 2.0 124.7 0.2 2.1 123.10 0.2 2.1 222.0 0.1 0.8 220.80 -0.3 0.7
Updated
Next
Release
Jan 20
Jan Flash HICP (Jan 31)
Jan 20
Jan CPI (Feb 23)
Jan 14
Jan CPI (Feb 17)
Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts
Chart 4: Eurozone Core HICP (% y/y)
Chart 5: US Core CPI (% y/y)
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
After reaching an all-time low in April 2010, core inflation has been
a touch stronger in recent months, mainly reflecting gains in core
goods inflation. While we expect core services inflation to head
lower, the rebound in core goods has further to run. We expect a
brief interruption to the downward trend in core inflation.
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
The downward trend in shelter inflation was recently interrupted.
However, the renewed collapse in the housing market should see a
reversion to a downward trend from early this year.
Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 20 January 2011
Market Mover
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