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Behavioural Surveillance Surveys - The Wisdom of Whores

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Step 4 : Add together the result <strong>of</strong> that calculation for every cell <strong>of</strong> the table. <strong>The</strong> result is the<br />

Chi-square value. <strong>The</strong> total <strong>of</strong> all the cells (excluding, <strong>of</strong> course, the row and column totals) is the<br />

sum <strong>of</strong> all the column OR row totals, found in the bottom right hand corner <strong>of</strong> the table. So in this case :<br />

χ 2 = 49.37.<br />

Step 5 : In order to determine whether this χ 2 value is statistically significant, it is necessary<br />

to calculate the degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom.<br />

DF = (number <strong>of</strong> rows - 1) * (number <strong>of</strong> columns - 1)<br />

DF = (4-1) * (4-1) = 9.<br />

Step 5 : Go to the Table Chi-Square and look up the significance level for a χ 2 value <strong>of</strong> 49.37,<br />

with nine degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom. For nine degrees <strong>of</strong> freedom, the largest value given is 27.88,<br />

for a significance level (or p-value) <strong>of</strong> 0.001. Since the value we have calculated is larger than this,<br />

it means that it is significant at even greater levels <strong>of</strong> significance than that given. A p-value <strong>of</strong><br />

0.001 corresponds to a level <strong>of</strong> certainty <strong>of</strong> 99.9 percent. In other words, by using this test,<br />

we have shown that we are more than 99.9 percent sure that the association between age<br />

and non-regular sex partners could not have occurred by chance. This means that program<br />

planners in Côte d’Ivoire can with confidence assume that younger truck drivers are more likely to<br />

have multiple non-regular sex partners than older truck drivers, and they can target their prevention<br />

activities accordingly.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re are some limitations on the validity <strong>of</strong> this test. Chi-square distribution tests cannot<br />

reliably be used where more than a fifth <strong>of</strong> the values in the table <strong>of</strong> expected values are expected<br />

to be smaller than five, or when any expected value is less than one.<br />

350<br />

A PPEN DI X 5 B EHAV I OR A L SURV EI L L A NC E S U R V EY S

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