Erbil: The host city of sports t ournaments - Kurdish Globe

The Kurdish Globe No. 276, Saturday, October 09, 2010 13
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in the eight-year Iran-Iraq
War, as well as its huge
military exhibition in the
Kuwait invasion. Regardie
ing the Iranian desire and
position, it would be widele
ly expected to reconstruct
its weaponry treasure
with new visions and targe
gets. And this action may
empower the permanent
regime, and the regime’s
counterattacks might cost
more of the U.S and Israel.
Then, prior to the attack
it would be imperative to
ponder who will be more
at risk. Will the threat of
Iran stop with limited aerie
ial strikes not followed by
ground invasion? And what
will happen to the U.S.’s
unfinished projects in the
region? Hence, again, limie
ited airborne strikes won’t
utterly stop the permanent
Iranian regime, which is
more of the purpose, from
being a threat to Israel or
U.S. interests.
Many believe the U.S.
military buildup in the rege
gion is either preparation
for a war on Iran or a way
used by the U.S. to remind
Iran of the superiority of
the West. And the U.S.
for many years refused to
involve direct diplomacy
with Iran. This may give
the assumption that the
U.S. doesn’t want compe
promise, whereas the U.S.
officials accuse Iran of not
giving much.
Although a considerable
majority, especially pro-
Iranian countries, insists
on peaceful resolutions,
the international commune
nity is divided into two
groups. One is calling for
a clean sweep strike--not
only strikes on the Irane
nian nuclear facilities, but
a complete ground invase
sion. And others persist
on giving Tehran more
time, assurances, or severe
sanctions. Now, Iran is in
an embarrassing situation.
The media and Western
countries have shed light
on Iran more than ever.
Iran is surrounded from all
sides. Thousands of U.S.
combat troops are in Iraq,
and there is a huge chance
of instituting a permanent
U.S. military base in Iraq,
which will back up if not
all then definitely some
U.S. armed interferences
and intelligence operate
tions. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahre
rain, and U.S. bases in
Central Asia (Uzbekistan
and Kyrgyzstan) would
assist any move from the
West. From an American
perspective, these make
attacking Iran easier than
ever, and lessons taught
from the modern warfare
in Iraq and Afghanistan
can be implemented in the
war on Iran. Even though
President Obama’s adminie
istration might to some
extent look different from
the Bush administration,
the new administration,
like Bush’s, maintains
that the Iran crisis must
be addressed utterly. And
this mission cannot be acce
complished through negote
tiations, as Iran uses talks
either to buy time so that
more feats are gained in its
nuclear research centers
or to impose its wishes,
which seemingly won’t
be in the favor of Western
powers.
Will sanctions
affect Iran?
Sanctions imposed on
Iran would not debilitate
the country, and now Iran
is stepping forward faster.
Past decades prove that
political and economical
restrictions were inappe
propriate, and Iran could
survive and send its oppone
nents shocking gestures.
Therefore, controlling Iran
through sanctions is less
realistic. America has not
much in the way of direct
links with Iran. The U.S.
argues with Iran through
public media; it pressures
Iran by threatening capital
sources, which were mostle
ly European investors and
bankers. The European
Commission in 2006 repe
ported that “the EU makes
up 27.8% of Iran’s trade.”
Meanwhile, the new sancte
tions are expected to be put
into place soon, “disruptie
ing exports of gasoline and
other refined petroleum
products,” (Hosted News)
might not stop Iran from
moving on. Moreover, the
EU is the regime’s biggest
trading associate. It is a
huge leap and risk for the
EU to withhold its comme
mercial relationships with
Iran. Will EU countries
submit to the U.S. and
give up their profits? If
so, the EU free and sovere
eign states would be queste
tioned, and they automatice
cally would be counted on
the U.S. side and dragged
to become part of the next
war.
Why attack Iran?
Iran may probably be occe
cupied with similar justifice
cation as used once against
Saddam’s Iraq. Restriction
of individual boundaries
including religious freede
dom, nuclear weapon proge
grams, and minority rights
possibly would be a worthwe
while reason to invade
Iran. Meanwhile, perhaps
many could add two more
serious reasons: interferie
ing with Iraqi affairs and
supporting or funding viole
lent groups.
One hardly can find any
more debated topic other
than the Iranian nuclear
program. “From the afterme
math of the U.S. failure in
Iraq, Islamic Republic of
Iran has emerged as a rege
gional superpower.” Thus,
its attempts are calculated
and become apprehensive.
Though on more than one
occasion, Iran—assurie
ing of its peaceful purpe
poses--has been portrayed
as a growing threat. The
regime’s nuclear inquiry
has covered most of the
regimes faults, and it is
misrepresented and mystife
fied by the West.
In 2010, Iran built two
nuclear bombs. Iran does
not have enough expertise
to build nuclear warheads.
Iran seeks nuclear weapons
and is a violent country. If
it gained nuclear weapons,
the Iranian regime will
pose wider threats, or they
may put it into practice.
Momentarily, its heard
from all that a nuclear Iran
is entirely repudiated by
Western superpowers. Perhe
haps these are a bunch of
perplexities that manipule
lated the Western political
arena. Barely a newspaper
passes a day without news,
mostly misleading and
not based on solid details,
about the Iranian nuclear
programs, and they succe
cessfully contribute in
misinforming the public.
Western nations’s threats
and sanctions resulted in
negative outcomes to this
day. The menace is viewed
bigger than it is in authente
ticity. Then, will the West
debilitate extreme relige
gious zealots and the hardle
liner President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad and bring an
end to the Iranian nuclear
program?
Furthermore, human
rights organizations conte
tinuously accused Iran of
arbitrary imprisonments,
high execution ratio, and
restriction of religious
freedoms. Still, no reason
could evoke the call for an
action against Iran as deafe
eningly as its uranium enre
richment procession. The
human rights activists perse
sist on reporting massive
abuses inside the country.
However, Amnesty Interne
national is not allowed to
conduct research in Iran,
China, Myanmar, North
Korea, or Turkmenistan.
The organization’s UK
director, Kate Allen, clarife
fied 30 years after the Isle
lamic Revolution of Iran
that wide use of torture
and arbitrary detentions
still exist, and Iran in 2008
executed at least 346 peope
ple. In addition, whereas
security forces tightened
their measures and methoe
ods, Allen insisted that
they continue recording
changes.
After the 2009 presidente
tial election, Tehran brutalle
ly suppressed opponents,
human rights organizate
tions, civil society activie
ists, and journalists. Acce
cording to Human Rights
Watch reports, hundreds
of Iranian activists fled to
neighboring Turkey or rece
ceived lengthy imprisonme
ment, were sent to death,
or are on death row. Any
dissent could be followed
by severe punishment,
and the regime launched
a huge operation against
all means of communicate
tion. Internet servers were
kept under surveillance so
as to minimize the flow of
information. Emails and
phone calls were under
scrutiny to crackdown on
dissent. As stated by Joe
Stork, deputy Middle East
director at Human Rights
Watch, “Journalists, lawye
yers, civil society activie
ists who used to speak to
foreign media and human
rights groups increasingly
fear phone and Internet
surveillance.”
Moreover, Amnesty Inte
ternational reported, “Slande
der, defamation of state offe
ficials, insults to Islam and
other aspects of freedom
of expression, association,
and belief are used to prose
ecute those who dissent,
including those seeking to
promote and protect hume
man rights.” And maltreatme
ments reported by former
detainees include sexual
abuse, insult, torture, sleep
deprivation, and “suspense
sion from height.” Meanwe
while, still-minority nate
tions, Kurds, and religious
minorities like believers in
the Baha’i faith face huge
discrimination and represse
sion. Whereas hundreds
of Kurds were executed or
incarcerated due to holdie
ing anti-regime slogans,
a huge portion of Baha’i
believers were forced to
convert to Islam or they
are not allowed to practice
their faith unreservedly.
Possible portrayals
and outcomes
of the war
The occupation of Iraq
would guide the possible
war on Iran. Perhaps all
modern wars share simile
lar tactics to the Iraq War
in one way or another. The
invasion of Iran, like Iraq,
will begin with intensive
air strikes on military base
es, intelligence positions,
and suspected zones, but
how accurate they can
be is dubious. The effort
would be partially to sece
cure the pass for ground,
but the post-invasion situae
ation would be more dise
sastrous than Iraq due to
population, geopolitical,
and militarily differences.
An internal revolution or
coup is not expected, but
Iranians might have a dese
sire to replace the existing
regime. Iran is a multinate
tional and religious counte
try, and if the occupation
is triggered, components
might ask for privileges.
The 2003 Iraq subjugation
would depict this point,
evidently. Iraq for more
than four years was on the
edge of a civil war and
sectarian division. Kurds,
Sunnis, Christians, Assyrie
ians, and Shiites claimed
they had superiority, but
there was not a true call
for fraternity. Iraq was
about to alienate into three
regions, northern province
es for the Kurds, southern
provinces for the Shiites,
and middle provinces for
the Sunni population, and
even the feeble federal
Iraq was expected to disie
integrate. Therefore, Iran
might divide into as many
independent districts as
nations, and religious
groups exist in the counte
try. Every group will take
the stage and endeavor to
obtain the occupiers’ suppe
port to put its plans into
effect. Therefore, chances
of waging a civil war reme
main muscular. Kurds,
with more than 7 percent
population, might declare
their free state; meanwe
while, Sunnis, after more
than 30 years of represse
sion, will take the chance
to build a Sunni region
supported by Sunni neighbe
boring countries, possibly
most of the Arab World. In
addition, many yet believe
Iranians are well cultured;
they may want the regime
change, but the likelihood
of an internal war or dishe
harmony is weak. Iranians,
unlike Iraqis, will not surre
render and be lured into a
civil war. Therefore, most
likely, a group of leading
reformists who definitely
could fulfill the invaders’
expectations will lead the
country.
Furthermore, hundreds
of thousands of sacrifices
are needed to engage this
huge alteration. The inve
vasion of Iran will not
destabilize just Iran or
change the regime, but the
entire region will face unpe
precedented change. The
strongest anti-West power
would die off and the prese
ence of U.S. and Western
superpowers would double
in the region. Meanwhile,
Israel would protract its
expansions fearlessly, as
there would be no country
to wipe it out on the world
map. It is all positive up
to this point, but we must
compose Iranians’ capabe
bilities. For more than 30
years now, Iranians have
worked on their intellige
gence and military mace
chine; therefore, a bloody
and unparalleled counterae
attack is expected.
Bombings and destabile
lizing the dwellers’ bases
would be the Iranian prioe
ority, as was the case in
Iraq. Those thousands of
revolutionary guards and
regime affiliates would
finally find something
worthy to do and resist.
Temporarily, on one hand,
U.S. forces in Iraq would
be an attackable and realie
istic target of the Iranians,
perchance through re-dese
stabilizing Iraq. No matte
ter if Iran loses its laser
guided missile arsenals, Jihe
had would remain a lethal
weapon. Iranian religious
figures might announce a
wide range Jihad against
the West, and this will defie
initely have lingering effe
fects. In the Iraq-Iran War,
Iran rerecorded tangible
successes through using
religion. Iranian soldiers
were ready to cross mined
fields and give their lives,
imagining a safe place in
heaven. On the other hand,
other U.S. bases, embasse
sies, and citizens in the
East will be embattled.
And while Kuwait, Qatar,
Bahrain, and Central Asia
U.S. bases would offer a
huge backup for troops on
the ground, they will be on
the Iranian hit list. Thus,
the Iranian counter-offense
sives might exceed expecte
tations.
Israel, expectedly, would
be the Iranian determined
target. Many times the Irane
nian disciplinarian Preside
dent Ahmadinejad promie
ised to “wipe Israel off
the map.” Undoubtedly,
if Israel doesn’t initiate,
definitely it will partake
in the war; thus, its secure
rity would be disturbed. If
Tehran, by itself, could not
compose attacks against
Israel, its extreme organize
zations are ready to carry
out the mission. On one
side, Hezbollah, from the
south of Lebanon, will
compile raids on Israel
and involve Israel in a war
not of its interests. On the
other side--the Palestinie
ian side--Hamas suicide
bombers and local manufe
factured missiles could
create chaos in the heart of
Israel.
Politically, when the war
comes to the region, the
political procession will
take a vacation. For countle
less years the war might
wage, and the peace proce
cess and IDP would stop.
Not just Iranians, Iraqis, or
Palestinians, but all would
have to pay the price. The
new Middle Eastern orde
der would depend on the
newly established Iran, as
Iranians will keep their rege
gional influential role.
Economically, the inve
vasion will affect those
Western countries that
depend on oil. Iran is the
fourth-largest oil produce
er, and any attack on the
country will undoubtedly
affect its oil production.
Iran--through its huge natue
ural gas and oil reserves
and exports--can affect
markets. And if the counte
try faced invasion, oil and
gas prices will surely rece
cord first-time, shockingly
high prices. As the “USA
Today” editorial board
stated, oil prices might
shoot to “$100 a barrel.”
Meanwhile, “Iran grips
the 20 percent of global oil
supplies that are shipped
through the Straits of Horme
muz.” (Seumas Milne)
Therefore, Iran might try
to seize the Straits and creae
ate a global energy crisis.
But the Iranian navy might
be crippled by the invade
ers. This quest would be
backbreaking for the inve
vaders, and Iranians may
succeed for a short time.