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KDP confirms government rotation - Kurdish Globe

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The <strong>Kurdish</strong> <strong>Globe</strong> No. 335, Saturday, January 07, 2012 2<br />

Kurds must “use their aces wisely”<br />

<strong>Globe</strong> Editorial<br />

The fear of the disintegration of<br />

Iraq is hardly breaking news. A<br />

persistent theme of the past nineor<br />

so years of the new Iraq has been<br />

how to preserve unity and bring<br />

about true national reconciliation<br />

amongst a climate of deep misti<br />

trust.<br />

Iraq in its transition to democri<br />

racy may have achieved historical<br />

junctures, but it has often stumbled<br />

to its milestones as opposed to a<br />

painless arrival at its new dawn.<br />

More often than not, the major<br />

achievements in Iraq were undersi<br />

scored by heavy U.S. pressure<br />

and much political jockeyingand<br />

drama in Baghdad. As successive<br />

crises have brewed, asemblance<br />

of calm was somewhat reinstated<br />

in the short term by last-minute<br />

dealings,but too often at the expi<br />

pense of any long-term benefits. A<br />

policy of brushing key issues undi<br />

der the political rug always ran the<br />

risk of haunting the Iraqi political<br />

arena at some stage,and just days<br />

after the U.S.symbolic withdrawal<br />

from Iraq, another explosive crisis<br />

reared its ugly head in Iraq.<br />

If the issues are assessed at the<br />

surface, then one can argue that<br />

current turmoil was instigated<br />

by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri<br />

al-Maliki’sissuance of an arrest<br />

warrant against Iraq's Sunni Vice<br />

President Tariq al-Hashemi and the<br />

subsequent ploy to sideline Sunni<br />

Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-<br />

Mutlak from power. However,<br />

the water has been boiling on the<br />

sieve for several months, and for<br />

one reason or another, it wouldn’t<br />

have taken much to tip sentiments<br />

over the edge.<br />

Just take the current brittle coai<br />

alition that was remarkably conci<br />

cluded after 11 months and set an<br />

unwanted world record. That in<br />

itself sums up all that is needed to<br />

explain the current upheaval and<br />

instability.<br />

Even though Iyad Allawi’s predi<br />

dominantly Sunni-based al-Iraqiyi<br />

ya group was the ultimate victor<br />

at the polls, they were threatened<br />

withbeingmarginalised by al-Mali<br />

liki’s Shiite Coalition. Months of<br />

wrangling ensured agreement on<br />

power-sharing but more through<br />

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki delivers a speech during a ceremony at Al-Shaab stadium complex in central<br />

Baghdad on December 31, 2011.<br />

gritted teeth than true brotherly<br />

reconciliation.<br />

Once al-Iraqiya didn’t get the<br />

power it demanded and real deci<br />

cision-makingauthority, it was<br />

only a question of time before<br />

the political landscape would be<br />

rocked once more. Almost two<br />

years since the national elections,<br />

a number of key positions remain<br />

unfilled and still in the hands of<br />

al-Maliki in what was supposedly<br />

a temporary basis.<br />

Turkish anxiety has dramatically<br />

increased by unfolding events,<br />

leading Ankara to go back and<br />

forth between Baghdad and Washi<br />

ington in recent weeks and warni<br />

ing about the dangers of an Iraqi<br />

disintegration. Although Turkey<br />

may have chosen to ignore reality<br />

for a while, the writing has been<br />

on the Iraqi wall for decades and<br />

particularly these past nine years.<br />

There is no danger of Iraqi fragmi<br />

mentation. It is already fragmentei<br />

ed, and now it’s only a question<br />

of just how far the disintegration<br />

will go; regional countries must<br />

accept that reality sooner or latei<br />

er. Democracy has been fraught<br />

with difficulty in Iraq with voting<br />

along heavy sectarian and ethnic<br />

lines. Voting has been almost akin<br />

to a de facto national census than<br />

a true national voice gathering exei<br />

ercise.<br />

While Turkey and neighbouri<br />

ing countries seemingly worked<br />

to promote national harmony and<br />

reconciliation in Iraq, ironically<br />

they have been responsible for the<br />

entrenchment of camps in Iraq.<br />

Successive Shiite <strong>government</strong>s<br />

have swayed heavily toward Tehri<br />

ran, whilst Sunni groups, essenti<br />

tially marginalised from power<br />

from their heyday under Saddam<br />

Hussein, have worked to force a<br />

hand at the political table through<br />

the threat of insurgency or<br />

through jockeying in the political<br />

chambers. Turkmen have used the<br />

big brother threat, calling on the<br />

support of Turkey to ensure their<br />

cards on the table are not ignored,<br />

while for the Kurds it has been a<br />

case of not letting the rest of Iraq<br />

drag the prosperous Kurdistan<br />

Region down with them and at the<br />

same time building strategic ties<br />

to boost their autonomous status<br />

and growing economic clout.<br />

How regional sectarian influence<br />

continues to grip Iraq can be seen<br />

with al-Maliki’s persistent support<br />

of the much maligned and underfire<br />

Bashar al-Assad in Syria.<br />

This week al-Iraqiya kept up<br />

their boycott of Iraq’s Parliament<br />

and Cabinet, accusing al-Maliki<br />

of monopolising power and not<br />

abiding by the terms that led to<br />

the eventual breakthroughof the<br />

current coalition.<br />

Accusations of the centralising<br />

of power by al-Maliki are hardly<br />

new; it was a frequent criticism<br />

throughout the last election term.<br />

With the importance of upholdi<br />

ing calm and dialogue seemingly<br />

at large, a national conference has<br />

been proposed that should be held<br />

sometime this month. A national<br />

conference may save the day in<br />

the short term as did the Erbil<br />

agreement, but true concord may<br />

prove elusive once more.<br />

No amount of political mani<br />

noeuvring at the end of the day<br />

can paper over deep mistrust and<br />

animosity. Even if national electi<br />

tions were held early, the end<br />

game would be the same. There is<br />

no guarantee that Iraq would not<br />

end up at the same juncture after<br />

new elections are held whilst the<br />

key ingredients that continuousli<br />

lypoison the political atmosphere<br />

remain.<br />

As for now, it is unlikely that<br />

al-Maliki will relinquish his firm<br />

grip on power. While al-Maliki<br />

has been under intense domestic<br />

and regional spotlight, he may esci<br />

cape this current escapade largely<br />

unscathed. Al-Iraqiya have used<br />

the threat of boycott, but with so<br />

many Sunnis in their ranks badly<br />

scarred from the boycott campi<br />

paignsof the previous campaigns,<br />

it is unclear just how far the loyai<br />

alty of their MPs stretch.<br />

The current political tension<br />

ALI AL-SAADI/AFP/Getty Images<br />

may have hurt al-Iraqiya further<br />

with 11 politicians already revi<br />

voking their ties to the alliance.<br />

Al-Iraqiya MPs are mindful that<br />

further boycotts or spotlight may<br />

see more positions of power reli<br />

linquished to the powerful Shiite<br />

alliance.<br />

The biggest danger is a coaliti<br />

tion without al-Iraqiya altogether<br />

where al-Maliki musters suppi<br />

port from Kurds and al-Iraqiya<br />

dissidents,a scenario that would<br />

certainly place sectarian tensions<br />

into overdrive. The recent spate<br />

of initiatives toward autonomy by<br />

predominantly Sunni provinces is<br />

an indicator of growing Sunni fear<br />

that preservation of local power<br />

aside, they may be confounded<br />

to a running battle to avoid being<br />

sidelined in Baghdad.<br />

The Kurds, who have attempted<br />

to remain neutral, once again<br />

find themselves with all the aces.<br />

Only with <strong>Kurdish</strong> support could<br />

al-Iraqiya spearhead a new govei<br />

ernment and only with <strong>Kurdish</strong><br />

support could al-Maliki be ousted<br />

from <strong>government</strong>.<br />

Logic would dictate that after<br />

many failed promises by al-Mali<br />

liki toward the Kurds, including<br />

the lack of implementation of the<br />

vast majority of conditions that he<br />

signed up to as a prelude to Kurdi<br />

ish support, the Kurds would side<br />

with al-Iraqiya. However, the new<br />

crisis and the key <strong>Kurdish</strong> role of<br />

calming tensions, gives the opporti<br />

tunity for the Kurds to preserve<br />

al-Maliki’s seat and the current<br />

coalition, but no doubt with much<br />

sterner warningsand conditions<br />

for the Shiite Alliance and al-Mali<br />

liki.<br />

The fact remains that all too ofti<br />

ten al-Maliki has boldly reneged<br />

on agreements with Kurds and has<br />

simply gotten away with it, even<br />

as the Kurds have saved al-Mali<br />

liki’s political skin on more than<br />

one occasion. The issue of dispi<br />

puted territories remains as open<br />

and pertinent as ever, Baghdad<br />

remains at loggerheads with the<br />

Kurds on oil sharing, and Baghdi<br />

dad has hardly provided a positive<br />

endorsement of growing <strong>Kurdish</strong><br />

strategic clout and prosperity. It<br />

is time for the Kurds to use their<br />

aces wisely.<br />

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel<br />

Weekly paper printed in Erbil<br />

First published in 2005<br />

www.kurdishglobe.net<br />

info.kurdishglobe<br />

@gmail.com<br />

Address:<br />

Erbil, Bakhtiyari Quarter<br />

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Jawad Qadir<br />

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