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2010 2036 2034 2032 2030 2028 2010 Full-time enrolment 22-to-25 18-to-21 Its third scenario assumes that recent interprovincial migration trends 600,000 will persist throughout the projection period. This would result in 2020 a less severe 2025 drop 2030 of just 2035 12 percent 2040 by 2020, followed by 400,000 an even more rapid rebound. The rebound would generate 18-to-21 22-to-25 25-to-29 population levels significantly higher in 2030 than in 2010. 2015 200,000 30-to-34 35-to-39 Saskatchewan’s 0 evolving demographic situation serves to demonstrate 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 how population trends at the provincial level are less intractable than they sometimes Totalappear. Understanding 18-to-21 the potential 22-to-24 implications of these different 25-to-29 scenarios clearly 30 plus impacts university enrolment planning. Source: While AUCC Saskatchewan estimates is perhaps the starkest example, appreciating the nature and effect of shifting provincial demography is important in every province. Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009 FIGURE XX: Population changes will have a small impact on full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead to growth in the long term FIGURE 21: The mid-growth scenario projects strong population rebound in the 18-to-21 age cohort nationally and in Quebec 30 plus Age 18-21 (Index 2010=100) Historical trends scenario 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 120 110 100 90 80 70 25-to-29 22-to-24 18-to-21 Total 30 plus 25-to-29 Age 18-21 (Ind Historical tre 22-to-24 Universities in all provinces will clearly confront different challenges as a result 70 18-to-21 of demographic trends in the local and regional areas from 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 which they normally attract their students. The two charts on this Total page illustrate how British provincial Columbia populations in Alberta the 18-to-21 age cohort would change under Saskatchewan Statistics Canada’s medium Manitoba growth scenario. All provinces will experience a decline between 2012 and 2024, and Ontario Newfoundland and Labrador all will start to see their population in that age group rebound in the following years. Prince Some Edward provinces Island – British Canada Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario Quebec – will see larger Nova cohorts Scotia of 18-to-21 New Brunswick year-olds after 2030 than in 2010. As noted earlier, universities will also need Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009 to adjust planning on an ongoing basis to account for shifts in the migration patterns. Quebec Age 18-21 (Index 2010=100) Historical trends scenario 100 90 80 130 120 New Brunswick 110 Nova Scotia 100 Prince Edward 90 Island Newfoundland 80 and Labrador Canada 70 FIGURE 22: The mid-growth scenario projects population in the 18-to-21 age cohort will rebound strongly in all provinces west of Quebec 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 University graduation Community college, CEGEP Trades, vocational, apprenticeship Graduated high school 2036 large share governmen Less than high school 0% Source: Survey o B A S M O C 2010 2015 2020 60 2025 2030 2018 2035 2040 2026 British Columbia Alberta Canada 18-to-21 2012 2014 22-to-24 2016 2020 2022 25-to-29 2024 Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario 30 plus Total Quebec ource: Statistics Canada, Population Projections Prince 2009 Edward Island Canada Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009 FIGURE 20: Underlying assumptions will have a major impact on projections for the 18-to-21 age cohort in Saskatchewan New Brunswick Nova Scotia Newfoundland and Labrador Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009 FIGURE 23: Between 1980 and 1993, the number of full-time bachelor's students aged 18-to-21 grew strongly despite population declines in that cohort British Columbia 26 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment AUCC Alberta FIGURE 28: Canada’s shifting employment market is creating more Saskatchewan
30 plus Total Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009 tics Canada, Population Projections 2009 2 2014 2016 Factors affecting participation rates As the following section shows, changes in university participation rates have played a much more significant role in driving enrolment growth than demography over the last 50 years. University enrolment has grown both in periods of demographic booms and busts. : Underlying assumptions will have a major impact ions for the 18-to-21 age cohort in Saskatchewan Throughout the 1960s, full-time undergraduate enrolment growth outpaced population growth. Undergraduate enrolment more than doubled (135 percent growth) while the population of the 18-to- 21 age group grew by some 50 percent as the baby boomers first started to reach university age. During the 1970s, undergraduate enrolment growth kept pace with 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 the rapid population growth caused by the baby boomer generation. Recent interprovincial mobility trends Historical trends At the beginning of the 1980s, baby boomers of university age caused enrolment in universities to peak. In the subsequent 13 years, all provinces experienced sharp population declines in the 18-to-21 cohort – the so-called baby bust. This youth cohort declined by 21 percent nationally, ranging from about a five percent decline in Newfoundland and Labrador to 30 percent in Quebec. At the time, forecasters were projecting big enrolment declines for the decade of the 1980s, and big savings if the sector was to downsize. 2006 medium growth projection tics Canada, Population Projections 2009 2006 medium growth projection Recent interprovincial mobility trends Historical trends Those projections were never realized. Despite the deep population declines, the number of students in this age range actually grew very strongly in every province. Nationally, enrolment in the 18-to- 21 year-old cohort increased by about 35 percent, with growth rates of 50 percent or more in Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Alberta. Growth in participation rates has continued to be a more important factor driving enrolment increases than changes in the population FIGURE 23: Between 1980 and 1993, the number of full-time bachelor's students aged 18-to-21 grew strongly despite population declines in that cohort British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Canada -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates of key cohorts. From 2000 to 2010, full-time undergraduate enrolment for the 18-to-21 cohort grew much more rapidly than FIGURE 24: Between 2000 and 2010, growing participation and population the underlying change in population in that age group in every have combined to drive rapid enrolment increases in most provinces province. Indeed, while the population base for the cohort declined in three provinces – Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Quebec – enrolment British Columbia from within that cohort grew strongly in Newfoundland and AlbertaLabrador as well as Quebec, where the growth in participation rates Saskatchewan more than compensated for the decline in the population. In the Manitoba other seven provinces, rising population and rising participation rates combined to drive strong increases in enrolment. Ontario ** Québec (19 to 22) In New addition, Brunswick the elimination of grade 13 in Ontario in 2003 created Population age 18-to-21 a Nova “double Scotia cohort” as two high school classes Full-time entered undergraduate the university enrolment age 18-to-21 system Prince Edward in Island one year artificially inflating growth. It has taken Newfoundland several years for that group of students to work through and Labrador undergraduate programs and many are now enrolled in graduate Canada Population age 18-21 Full-time bachelor’s enrolment age 18-21 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Population age Full-time bache AUCC Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates ** Ontario was age 19-to-22 in 2000 and age 18-to-21 in 2010 Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 27
Page 1 and 2: Trends in Higher Education Volume 1
Page 3 and 4: Introduction ......................
Page 5 and 6: Introduction In 2010, there were al
Page 7 and 8: FIGURE 1: Since 1980, full-time stu
Page 9 and 10: Growth was widespread across most d
Page 11 and 12: Graduate enrolment 100,000 90,000 8
Page 14 and 15: Undergradua Source: Statistics Cana
Page 16 and 17: PhD tudents 2005 Mathematics, Compu
Page 18 and 19: Based on recent trends, it is very
Page 20 and 21: Social, cultural, economic and geog
Page 22 and 23: Drivers of change 22 | Trends in Hi
Page 24 and 25: Demographic trends FIGURE 18: Shift
Page 28 and 29: Source: Statistics Canada data and
Page 30 and 31: 30 | Trends in Higher Education | V
Page 32 and 33: s 2009 Manitoba wfoundland and Labr
Page 34 and 35: s TABLE 2: From 2004 to 2010, emplo
Page 36 and 37: ating more tions y iploma If Canada
Page 38 and 39: ds will grow further people expecte
Page 40 and 41: A high quality learning experience
Page 42 and 43: For example, bachelor’s graduates
Page 44 and 45: of low income ploma a 10 1995 2000
Page 46 and 47: TABLE 4: Education generates broade
Page 48 and 49: Proportion of 45-to-54 year-olds wi
Page 50 and 51: Canada $20,000 Full-time students a
Page 52 and 53: NGS NGS NGS Source: AUCC using Stat
Page 54 and 55: other students, and participating i
Page 56 and 57: Enrolment growth scenarios The prec
Page 58 and 59: 400,000 200,000 However, with the s
Page 60 and 61: the majority of youth from completi
Page 62 and 63: to the American Council on Educatio
Page 64 and 65: Belgium Israel Germany Estonia Aust
Page 66 and 67: List of figures Figure 1: Since 198
Page 68 and 69: References All data not referenced
Page 70: of the system to meet the needs of

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