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30 plus Total<br />
Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009<br />
tics Canada, Population Projections 2009<br />
2<br />
2014<br />
2016<br />
Factors affecting participation rates<br />
As the following section shows, changes in university participation<br />
rates have played a much more significant role in driving <strong>enrolment</strong><br />
growth than demography over the last 50 years. University <strong>enrolment</strong><br />
has grown both in periods of demographic booms and busts.<br />
: Underlying assumptions will have a major impact<br />
ions for the 18-to-21 age cohort in Saskatchewan<br />
Throughout the 1960s, full-time undergraduate <strong>enrolment</strong> growth<br />
outpaced population growth. Undergraduate <strong>enrolment</strong> more than<br />
doubled (135 percent growth) while the population of the 18-to-<br />
21 age group grew by some 50 percent as the baby boomers first<br />
started to reach university age.<br />
During the 1970s, undergraduate <strong>enrolment</strong> growth kept pace with<br />
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030<br />
the rapid population growth caused by the baby boomer generation.<br />
Recent interprovincial mobility <strong>trends</strong> Historical <strong>trends</strong><br />
At the beginning of the 1980s, baby boomers of university age<br />
caused <strong>enrolment</strong> in universities to peak. In the subsequent 13 years,<br />
all provinces experienced sharp population declines in the 18-to-21<br />
cohort – the so-called baby bust. This youth cohort declined by<br />
21 percent nationally, ranging from about a five percent decline in<br />
Newfoundland and Labrador to 30 percent in Quebec. At the time,<br />
forecasters were projecting big <strong>enrolment</strong> declines for the decade<br />
of the 1980s, and big savings if the sector was to downsize.<br />
2006 medium growth projection<br />
tics Canada, Population Projections 2009<br />
2006 medium growth projection<br />
Recent interprovincial mobility <strong>trends</strong><br />
Historical <strong>trends</strong><br />
Those projections were never realized. Despite the deep population<br />
declines, the number of students in this age range actually grew<br />
very strongly in every province. Nationally, <strong>enrolment</strong> in the 18-to-<br />
21 year-old cohort increased by about 35 percent, with growth<br />
rates of 50 percent or more in Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia,<br />
New Brunswick and Alberta.<br />
Growth in participation rates has continued to be a more important<br />
factor driving <strong>enrolment</strong> increases than changes in the population<br />
FIGURE 23: Between 1980 and 1993, the number of full-time<br />
bachelor's students aged 18-to-21 grew strongly despite population<br />
declines in that cohort<br />
British Columbia<br />
Alberta<br />
Saskatchewan<br />
Manitoba<br />
Ontario<br />
Quebec<br />
New Brunswick<br />
Nova Scotia<br />
Prince Edward Island<br />
Newfoundland and Labrador<br />
Canada<br />
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%<br />
Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates<br />
of key cohorts. From 2000 to 2010, full-time undergraduate<br />
<strong>enrolment</strong> for the 18-to-21 cohort grew much more rapidly than<br />
FIGURE 24: Between 2000 and 2010, growing participation and population<br />
the underlying change in population in that age group in every<br />
have combined to drive rapid <strong>enrolment</strong> increases in most provinces<br />
province. Indeed, while the population base for the cohort declined<br />
in three provinces – Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Quebec –<br />
<strong>enrolment</strong> British Columbia from within that cohort grew strongly in Newfoundland<br />
and AlbertaLabrador as well as Quebec, where the growth in participation<br />
rates Saskatchewan more than compensated for the decline in the population. In<br />
the Manitoba other seven provinces, rising population and rising participation<br />
rates combined to drive strong increases in <strong>enrolment</strong>.<br />
Ontario **<br />
Québec (19 to 22)<br />
In New addition, Brunswick the elimination of grade 13 in Ontario in 2003 created<br />
Population age 18-to-21<br />
a Nova “double Scotia cohort” as two high school classes Full-time entered undergraduate the university<br />
<strong>enrolment</strong> age 18-to-21<br />
system Prince Edward in Island one year artificially inflating growth. It has<br />
taken Newfoundland several years for that group of students to work through<br />
and Labrador<br />
undergraduate programs and many are now enrolled in graduate<br />
Canada<br />
Population age 18-21<br />
Full-time bachelor’s<br />
<strong>enrolment</strong> age 18-21<br />
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%<br />
Population age<br />
Full-time bache<br />
AUCC<br />
Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates<br />
** Ontario was age 19-to-22 in 2000 and age 18-to-21 in 2010<br />
Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 27