trends-2011-vol1-enrolment-e

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Demographic trends FIGURE 18: Shifting demographic patterns will be a constant challenge over the next 30 years The echo of the baby boom generation is currently working its way through Canadian universities; 14 2011 marks the year in which the numbers in the 18-to-21 age cohort peak. Students within this age group now comprise 52 percent of full-time enrolment. Over the next decade, the population in this age group will decline by about 10 percent, diminishing the pool from which universities have traditionally drawn new students. Population in the 18-to-21 age cohort is then projected to rebound in the decade from 2020 to 2030 to the point where it will slightly exceed 2010 levels. Thus, population trends in this cohort could have a significant impact on overall enrolment levels across Canada. Population (Index 2010 =100) 130 120 110 100 90 80 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 35-to-39 30-to-34 25-to-29 22-to-25 18-to-21 FIGURE 17: In 2010, students under 22 years of age made up half the full-time student body 18-to-21 30-to-34 22-to-25 35-to-39 25-to-29 FIGURE 29: Sin has grown rap Employment ch 40+ 40+ 35-to-39 35-39 30-34 25-to-29 25-29 22-to-24 21 or 22-24 younger Population growth in the older age groups will counterbalance the impact of the 18-to-21 cohort. Over the coming decade, the population of the four older age cohorts is expected to grow by four percent in the 22-to-24 age group; seven percent for those Full Time Enrolement 25-to-29; 11 percent for the 30-to-34 age group and nine percent for those aged 35-to-39. The combined impact of these various demographic factors will drive enrolment demand over at least the next five to seven years, assuming constant participation rates. As illustrated in Figure 18, the relative size of the population in each of FIGURE XX: Population changes will have a small impact these older age groups will vary widely during the 20 years after 2020. and Labrador From 2030 to 2040, population in the three younger cohorts Canada (which, when combined, accounts for almost 90 percent of full-time students today) is projected to grow strongly and will, other things being equal, drive growth in demand in that period. 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 To isolate the cumulative impact of these varying demographic trends, enrolment projections were developed assuming constant participation rates within each age group. Under that assumption, full-time enrolment would fall by about 3.8 percent from current 500,000 400,000 300,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009 on full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead to growth in the long term 30 plus -10% 0% Source: 25-to-29Statistics Can FIGURE 19: Population changes will have a small impact on full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead 200,000 to growth in the long term 100,000 FIGURE 44: Univer 24 1,200,000 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment 0 large share of inco AUCC government trans 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1,000,000 13.6% 3.3% 2.5% 5% 23.7% 52.2% 30-to-34 Source: Statistics Canada and AUCC estimates 30 plus 25-to-29 18-to-21 22-to-24 25-to-29 British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland University 22-to-24 18-to-21 Total
Full-time enrolment 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 levels by 2020, then rise steadily to 3.2 percent beyond current levels by 2030. Population changes alone would drive even greater enrolment FIGURE growth 21: The in mid-growth the subsequent scenario projects decade. strong population Shifts in population will not be uniform in all regions of the 120 country. When compared with national population projections, provincial 110 and territorial projections are subject to increased variability because of uneven patterns in interprovincial migration 100 from year to year. Variations in interprovincial migration can be sizable, 90 leading to different provincial population projections. Differences in interprovincial migration patterns are often driven by structural 80 or economic changes in a province. As a result, different assumptions regarding interprovincial migration add 70 considerable uncertainty to projections at the provincial/ territorial level. 15 Age 18-21 (Index 2010=100) Historical trends scenario 60 FIGURE 19: Population changes will have a small impact on full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead to growth in the long term Total 25-to-29 Source: AUCC estimates rebound in the 18-to-21 age cohort nationally and in Quebec 2036 2034 2032 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 18-to-21 30 plus 22-to-24 1,000,000 A good example is Saskatchewan, which over the last few years has 900,000 reversed a long-standing trend in out-migration of youth to other 800,000provinces and is now attracting interprovincial migrants. 30 plus Statistics 700,000 Canada has produced three projection scenarios which paint 600,000very divergent pictures of the future trends within the 25-to-29 18-to-21 500,000 age group. The first scenario was made in 2005 and is 22-to-24 based on the long-term historical trends in interprovincial migration 400,000 18-to-21 at that time. Under those assumptions, Statistics Canada was 300,000 projecting a steep decline in that age cohort over the course of 200,000 Total the decade from 2010 to 2020, remaining 30 percent below 100,000 today’s level until at least 2030. Full Time Enrolement The second scenario was also based on long-term trends, but was updated by Statistics 18-to-21 22-to-24 25-to-29 Canada in 2010, and includes the impact of new population growth 30 plus due to recent Total migration trends. It projected a smaller Source: rate Statistics of decline, Canada, Population about Projections 17 percent 2009 by 2022, at which point the population will begin to rebound. By 2030, the population would almost return to 2010 levels. Age 18-21 (Index 2010=100) Quebec 0 110 105 100 80 2010 95 New Brunswick 90 85 Nova Scotia FIGURE XX: Population changes will have a small impact on full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead to growth in the long term 2015 2020 75 Prince Edward Island 70 Newfoundland 65 and Labrador 60 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Canada 2025 2020 2006 medium growth projection 2030 2022 2024 2035 FIGURE 20: Underlying assumptions will have a major impact on projections for the 18-to-21 age cohort in Saskatchewan 2026 2028 2040 Recent interprovincial mobility trends Historical trends 30 plus FIGURE 44 25-to-29 large share governme 22-to-24 University graduation 18-to-21 Community college, Total CEGEP Trades, vocational, apprenticeship 2030 Graduated high school Less than high school 0% Source: Survey Quebec New Brunswick Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009 AUCC Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 25 Canada Newfoundland and Labrador
Page 1 and 2: Trends in Higher Education Volume 1
Page 3 and 4: Introduction ......................
Page 5 and 6: Introduction In 2010, there were al
Page 7 and 8: FIGURE 1: Since 1980, full-time stu
Page 9 and 10: Growth was widespread across most d
Page 11 and 12: Graduate enrolment 100,000 90,000 8
Page 14 and 15: Undergradua Source: Statistics Cana
Page 16 and 17: PhD tudents 2005 Mathematics, Compu
Page 18 and 19: Based on recent trends, it is very
Page 20 and 21: Social, cultural, economic and geog
Page 22 and 23: Drivers of change 22 | Trends in Hi
Page 26 and 27: 2010 2036 2034 2032 2030 2028 2010
Page 28 and 29: Source: Statistics Canada data and
Page 30 and 31: 30 | Trends in Higher Education | V
Page 32 and 33: s 2009 Manitoba wfoundland and Labr
Page 34 and 35: s TABLE 2: From 2004 to 2010, emplo
Page 36 and 37: ating more tions y iploma If Canada
Page 38 and 39: ds will grow further people expecte
Page 40 and 41: A high quality learning experience
Page 42 and 43: For example, bachelor’s graduates
Page 44 and 45: of low income ploma a 10 1995 2000
Page 46 and 47: TABLE 4: Education generates broade
Page 48 and 49: Proportion of 45-to-54 year-olds wi
Page 50 and 51: Canada $20,000 Full-time students a
Page 52 and 53: NGS NGS NGS Source: AUCC using Stat
Page 54 and 55: other students, and participating i
Page 56 and 57: Enrolment growth scenarios The prec
Page 58 and 59: 400,000 200,000 However, with the s
Page 60 and 61: the majority of youth from completi
Page 62 and 63: to the American Council on Educatio
Page 64 and 65: Belgium Israel Germany Estonia Aust
Page 66 and 67: List of figures Figure 1: Since 198
Page 68 and 69: References All data not referenced
Page 70: of the system to meet the needs of

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