QF-E-003 CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF AUTUMN 2012 FOR ...

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QF-E-003
CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF AUTUMN 2012 FOR SERBIA
Jasminka Smailagic, Ana Savovic, Daliborka Nesic, Mirjana Milenkovic, Brankica
Drakula and Snezana Zdravkovic
Extremely warm autumn, the warmest on record for the majority of places in Serbia
Analysis of autumn season 2012 for Serbia in relation to the 1961-1990 reference
period
Temperature
Autumn 2012 was the warmest autumn on record at 15 stations in Serbia (Table 1). In
Belgrade, autumn 1923 was the only autumn warmer than autumn 2012 (Figure 1).
Mean seasonal air temperature ranged from 7.7ºC on Kopaonik Mountain, up to 15.5ºC
in Belgrade, surpassing the maximum mean autumn temperatures on record for all
meteorological stations in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period.
Mean autumn air temperature anomalies (in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period)
were positive in the entire Serbian territory and ranged from 2.0°C in Zajecar up to 3.8°C
on Kopaonik Mountain (Figure 2).
Maximum daily air temperature, measuring 37.3ºC, was recorded in Krusevac on
September 28 th , and minimum daily air temperature, amounting to -6.9 ºC, in Sjenica on
November 10 th .
According to the percentile method, mean autumn air temperature was in the extremely
warm category for entire Serbia (Figure3).

Table 1: The rank of autumn 2012 in a descending order according to mean monthly air
temperature in Serbia
STATION
historical period
Tsr ( o C) autumn
2012
autumn average
1961-1990 anomaly ( o C)
autumn 2012 in
order
PALIC 1945-2012 13.0 10.9 2.1 2
SOMBOR 1941-2012 13.1 10.8 2.3 2
NOVI SAD 1948-2012 13.9 11.4 2.5 1
ZRENJANIN 1943-2012 14.1 11.4 2.7 2
KOKINDA 1948-2012 13.5 11.2 2.3 2
B. KARLOVAC 1986-2012 13.7 - - -
LOZNICA 1952-2012 14.1 11.3 2.8 1
S.MITROVICA 1925-2012 13.8 11.1 2.6 2
VALJEVO 1926-2012 14.2 11.3 2.9 2
BELGRADE 1887-2012 15.5 12.4 3.1 2
KRAGUJEVAC 1925-2012 14.2 11.5 2.7 2
S.PALANKA 1939-2012 14.1 11.4 2.7 1
V.GRADISTE 1926-2012 13.7 11.4 2.2 2
C.VRH 1966-2012 9.9 7.2 2.6 1
NEGOTIN 1927-2012 14.1 11.3 2.8 2
ZLATIBOR 1950-2012 11.5 8.2 3.3 1
SJENICA 1946-2012 10.2 7.0 3.2 1
POZEGA 1952-2012 12.0 9.8 2.2 1
KRALJEVO 1926-2012 14.4 11.5 2.9 1
KOPAONIK 1950-2012 7.7 3.9 3.8 1
KURSUMLIJA 1952-2012 13.4 10.5 2.8 1
KRUSEVAC 1930-2012 14.4 11.2 3.1 1
CUPRIJA 1948-2012 13.8 11.1 2.6 1
NIS 1925-2012 15.1 11.8 3.2 1
LESKOVAC 1948-2012 13.5 11.1 2.5 2
ZAJECAR 1929-2012 12.7 10.7 2.0 1
DIMITROVGRAD 1945-2012 13.3 10.3 3.0 1
VRANJE 1926-2012 14.3 11.4 2.9 2
BECEJ 1925-2012 14.1 11.2 2.9 2
2

Mean seasonal temperature anomaly 1961-1990.
Belgrade - period 1887-2012.
Tsr ( o C) anomaly 1961-1990.
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2012
2010-2012
2000-2009
1990-1999
1970-1989
1950-1969
1930-1949
1910-1929
1887-1909
0.5
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1923 2012 1942 1963 1926 2000 2009 1961 2006 1932 1930 1943 1987 1967 1960 1966 2002 1982 1969 2008
3.2 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
15.6 15.5 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7
ordinal year - year - Tsr ( o C) anomaly 1961-1990. - Tsr
Figure 1. Descending order of 20 warmest autumns in Belgrade during the 1888-2012 period
°C
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Figure 2. Mean seasonal temperature anomaly in
Serbia during the autumn of 2012, in relation to
the 1961-1990 climatological reference period.
Figure 3. Assessment of mean seasonal
temperature in Serbia during the autumn of 2012
by using the percentile method, in relation to the
1961-1990 climatological reference period.
The number of summer days with maximum daily air temperature above 25ºC was
surpassed at the majority of main meteorological stations in Serbia. Thirty summer days
were recorded in Belgrade, which was 15 days above the average. The largest number of
summer days (36) was recorded in Nis (Figure 4).
3

The largest number of tropical days was registered in Nis (19), 15 days above the
average, while 14 tropical days were recorded in Belgrade, 11 days above the average.
A negative anomaly in the number of frost days with minimum daily temperature below
0˚C was recorded in entire Serbia. The largest anomaly was registered in southwestern,
eastern and a part of northern Serbia, while the anomaly was least in the area of Veliko
Gradiste (Figure 5).
Figure 4. Anomaly of the number of summer days
during the autumn of 2012 in relation to the 1961-
1990 normal.
Figure 5. Anomaly of the number of frost days
during the autumn of 2012 in relation to the 1961-
1990 normal.
According to the percentile method, mean daily air temperature in Belgrade was in the
very warm and extremely warm categories during most of September. During October
and November, temperature was in the normal, warm and very warm categories (Figure
6).
According to the percentile method, mean daily air temperature in Novi Sad was in the
normal, very warm and extremely warm categories during most of September. During
most of October and November, mean daily temperature was in the normal, warm and
very warm categories (Figure 7).
According to the percentile method, mean daily air temperature in Nis during September
was in the normal, very warm and extremely warm categories. During most of October
and November, temperature was in the normal, warm and very warm categories (Figure
8).
4

Belgrade
30
25
extremely warm
Temperature (°С)
20
15
10
5
very warm
warm
normal
cold
very cold
0
extremely cold
-5
September October November
Date
>98.percrntile 90.-98percentile 75.-90.percentile 25.-75.percentile 10.-25.percentile
2.-10.percentile 98.percentile 90.-98.percentile 75.-90.percentile 25.-75.percentile 10.-25.percentile
2.-10.percentile

Nis
30
Temperature (°С)
25
20
15
10
5
very warm
warm
extremely warm
normal
cold
very cold
0
-5
extremely cold
-10
September October November
Date
>98.percentile 90.-98.percentile 75.-90.percentile 25.-75.percentile 10.-25.percentile
2.-10.percentile

%
400
350
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Figure 9. Precipitation sum for the autumn of
2012 in Serbia in percentages of the 1961-
1990 normal.
Figure 10. Assessment of precipitation sums for the
autumn of 2012 in Serbia by using the percentile
method, for the 1961-1990 reference period.
The highest daily precipitation quantity was registered on Kopaonik Mountain on
October 28, and it measured 50.4 mm.
The number of days with precipitation of 1 mm and above was below normal in almost
entire Serbia, in relation to the 1961-1990 reference period (Figure 11). The largest
number of days with precipitation was recorded on Zlatibor Mountain (22), and the
fewest number in Dimitrovgrad and Leskovac (10).
Figure 11. Anomaly in the number of days with precipitation ≥
1mm during autumn 2012, in relation to the average for the 1961-
1990 period.
7

Analysis of 2012 autumn season for Serbia in relation to the 1971-2000
climatological reference period
Temperature
Mean autumn temperature anomalies (in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period)
ranged from 2.3°C in Zajecar up to 3.5°C in Negotin (Figure 12).
Figure 12. Mean seasonal temperature anomalies in
Serbia during the autumn of 2012, in relation to the
1971-2000 climatological reference period.
According to the percentile method, air temperature was in the extremely warm category
in entire Serbia (in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period) (Figure 13).
According to the tercile method, air temperature was in the warm category in entire
Serbia (Figure 14).
8

Figure 13. Assessment of air temperature in
Serbia for the autumn of 2012 by using the
percentile method, in relation to the 1971-2000
reference period.
Figure 14. Assessment of air temperature in Serbia
for the autumn of 2012 by using the tercile
method, in relation to the 1971-2000 reference
period.
Precipitation
Autumn precipitation sum for 2012 was, in relation to the 1971-2000 reference period,
below average in most of Serbia (precipitation sum ranged from 25% up to 75% of
normal). In the north, northeast and southwest of Serbia, precipitation sum was within the
range of normal values (Figure 15).
Figure 15. Autumn precipitation sum in Serbia for 2012, in
percentages of the 1971-2000 normal.
9

According to the percentile method, autumn precipitation sum was in the dry, very dry
and extremely dry categories in most of Serbia. In the northern, northeastern and
southwestern Serbia, precipitation sum was in the normal category (Figure 16).
According to the tercile method, autumn precipitation sum was in the dry category in
almost entire Serbia (Figure 17). The only exception was the north of the country, where
it was in the normal category.
Figure 16. Assessment of precipitation sum in
Serbia during the autumn of 2012 by using the
percentile method, in relation to the 1971-2000
reference period.
Figure 17. Assessment of precipitation sum in
Serbia during the autumn of 2012 by using the
tercile method, in relation to the 1971-2000
reference period.
Analysis of the 2012 autumn season for Serbia in relation to the 1981-2010
reference period
Temperature
Mean autumn temperature anomalies (in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period)
ranged from 2.0°C in Zajecar up to 3.1°C on Zlatibor and Kopaonik Mountains (Figure
18).
10

° C
-5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
Figure 18. Mean seasonal temperature anomalies
in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 in relation to
the 1981-2010 normal.
According to the percentile method, air temperature was in the extremely warm category
in entire Serbia (in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period), with the exception of the
area of Palic, where it was in the very warm category (Figure 19).
According to the tercile method, air temperature was in the warm category in entire
Serbia (Figure 20).
Figure 19. Assessment of air temperature in Serbia
for the autumn of 2012 by using the percentile
method, in relation to the 1981-2010 reference
period.
Figure 20. Assessment of air temperature in Serbia
for the autumn of 2012 by using the tercile method,
in relation to the 1981-2010 reference period.
11

Precipitation
Autumn precipitation sum for 2012 was, in relation to the 1981-2000 reference period,
below average in most of Serbia (precipitation sum ranged from 25% up to 75% of
normal). In the north, northeast and southwest of Serbia, precipitation sum was within the
range of normal values (Figure 21).
Figure 21. Precipitation sum in Serbia during the autumn
of 2012 in percentages of the 1981-2010 normal.
According to the percentile method, autumn precipitation sum was in the dry and very
dry categories in most of Serbia. In the northern, northeastern and southwestern Serbia,
precipitation sum was in the normal category (Figure 22).
According to the tercile method, autumn precipitation sum was in the dry category in
almost entire Serbia. In a part of northern and northeastern Serbia, precipitation sum was
in the normal category (Figure 23).
12

Figure 22. Assessment of seasonal precipitation
sum in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 by using
the percentile method, in relation to the 1981-2010
reference period.
Figure 23. Assessment of seasonal precipitation
sum in Serbia during the autumn of 2012 by
using the tercile method, in relation to the 1981-
2010 reference period.
13