Assessing the Effectiveness of Organized Crime Control Strategies ...

charges, arrests, or convictions are indications of success. However, such increases may reflect
an increase in criminal activity or simply that the relevant agency has benefited from additional
resources.
Conviction and sentence-based measures are also problematic because they discount the
ancillary benefits of prosecution where a conviction or lengthy sentence is not achieved.
Prosecution in itself can have a general deterrent effect, put an end to the illicit behaviour under
consideration, bring the public’s attention to those who may victimize them, and free sectors of
the economy from infiltration by OC groups (Maltz, 1990: 9).
Measures such as the conviction rate may also be counterproductive in terms of the operations of
OC strike forces. Maltz (1990:9) argues that these agencies should undertake risky cases and
concern for a high conviction rate would lead them to pursue less risky alternatives. Also,
prosecutors could inflate their conviction rates by accepting a guilty plea on a lesser charge.
In themselves, therefore, such body-counts provide just a starting point, but little in the way of a
useful indication of an initiative’s efficacy or efficiency. It is important to note that the
Homicide Survey, maintained by the Policing Services Programme at the Canadian Centre for
Justice Statistics, collects data on “gang-related” homicides.
Size of the Illicit Market
Attempts have been made in Canada (Porteous, 1998) and elsewhere to ascertain the volume of
OC. Beare and Schneider (1990:2) assert that, “There is no verifiable method for determining
the size of the illicit economy. Estimated figures in this area of illicit proceeds, however
carefully calculated, are only guesses. Once stated they take on a reality they do not deserve.”
There are many unknowns in estimating the size of the illicit market in relation to any product or
service. With regard to prohibited drugs, the size of the market is a function of the quantities
purchased and the cost, neither of which has been accurately measured (Kleiman, 1994). Drug
seizures are an inadequate indicator of quantity, as only a small percentage is seized. A 10
percent seizure rate is considered highly speculative and variable across drugs and time (van
Duyne, 1996:128). ). Furthermore, the estimates of profit margins that form the basis for the
calculation of proceeds from the drug trade are also controversial (van Duyne, 1996:129). Drug
prices, sources, and amounts bought are difficult to ascertain as they are usually not probed in
existing drug use surveys (Kleiman, 1994).
Much of the United States’ data on drug trafficking is collected by the National Narcotics
Intelligence Consumer Committee. The Committee concedes that there is a high degree of
uncertainty in the estimates of the amounts of drugs produced and entering the US, trafficking
patterns, and prices and purity of drugs (President’s Commission on Organized Crime, 1986:342-
343). The President’s Commission has added that there is no centralized data collected system
on drug seizures, resulting in the frequent double and triple reporting of the same drug bust by
participating agencies.
Research and Statistics Division / Department of Justice Canada | 13