Population Ageing and the Well-Being of Older Persons in Thailand ...

Section 3: Demographic, Social and Economic Profile
Figure 3.2 indicates the mean number of living
children according to respondents’ age and area of
residence. Since the source of these data, the 2007
Survey of Older Persons, also included persons aged
50-59, results for this age group are also provided in
order to represent persons who will be entering the
elderly ages during the coming decade. The steady
rise in number of living children with each successive
five-year age group is a clear reflection of this past
history of fertility decline in Thailand. Thus, persons
age 50-54 average only a little over half the number
for persons in their later seventies or older. The later
start of fertility decline among residents in rural areas
is reflected in their somewhat larger average number
of children compared to urban residents. Nevertheless,
it is clear that the past history of fertility decline
will sharply affect family sizes of elderly in both rural
and urban areas in the coming years. Moreover this
trend towards smaller families among future
generations of older persons will continue for at least
some decades into the foreseeable future, a point
discussed further below.
The very dramatic changes that will occur in the
number of living children that will characterize older
aged women in Thailand in the near future is
illustrated by comparisons between the situation in
2002 and projections for 2020 provided in Figure 3.3.
In 2002, over 60 per cent of women age 60 and older
had at least four living children and only 23 per cent
had two or fewer children. By 2020, when the
situation is virtually the reverse with only 60 per cent
of women age 60 and older having two or fewer
children and only 20 per cent having four or more
living children. Clearly in the coming years there will
be fewer children available to co-reside and provide
support to elderly parents in Thailand. How this will
impact the well-being of the older population will
depend on many other changes that will be occurring
concomitantly. For example, if economic growth
continues, adult children will be financially better off
and thus in a better position to provide material
support. In addition, formal channels of financial
support including the government social security
system and welfare allowances to older persons may
broaden thus reducing dependency of informal
support from adult children. Thus the impact of
declining family size on the welfare of coming
generations of older persons in Thailand remains an
open question but very important issue to monitor
and incorporate in policy and programme responses
to populations ageing.
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