Population Ageing and the Well-Being of Older Persons in Thailand ...

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Section 2: The Demography of Ageing substantial socio-economic implications. Figure 2.2 shows the anticipated changes in the proportionate share of the population accounted for by three major age groups, 0-14, 15-59, and 60 and over. These correspond roughly to dependent aged children, the working age population, and the older age population. A sizable share of the population 60 and over, although by no means all, is likely to have ceased productive economic activity and thus also be dependent. Although population ageing is already evident as signified by the modest increases in the proportion in the older ages, during the past several decades, more dramatic changes have occurred with respect to the other two main age groups. The per cent of the population in the dependent childhood ages has decreased noticeably and the share in the working age population has increased significantly. Indeed, during the first decade of the 21st Century approximately two-thirds of the population is estimated to be in the working ages 15-59, the highest level that has been or is projected to be during the entire century represented by the data. Such a temporary period during which the percentage of the population in the working ages is unusually high is an inevitable result of a transition from high to low fertility and is sometimes referred to as the “demographic dividend” associated with fertility decline. It is viewed as a time when the economy benefits most from demographic change because the number of dependents is low relative to the number of providers (Kanchanachitra et al. 2007; Wongboonsin 2004). This period will pass as the share of older persons rapidly increases and more than compensates for the decline in the share of the younger population in dependent ages. Indeed it is anticipated that after 2020, older persons in Thailand will outnumber those under age 15 and by the end of the projection period in 2050 will constitute almost double the share of the population that persons age 0-14 represent. The net result of the shifting age structure is a substantial rise in the median age of the population. As evident from Table 2.3, since 1975 the median age has been steadily increasing and is projected to continue to do so throughout the period covered, more than doubling by 2050. Prior to the decline in fertility, well over half of the population was under age 20. Currently well over half are over age 30 and by 2050, according to the projections, half of the population will over age 44. 8
Section 2: The Demography of Ageing As evident in Figure 2.2, the increasing proportions of older persons in the Thai population has been accompanied by steady declines in the proportion of young persons, a feature that is anticipated to continue for some time. A common measure of age structure intended to highlight this change is the ageing index which is defined as the number of older persons (i.e. aged 60 and over in this report) per hundred persons under age 15. If the number of persons age 60 and over exactly equals the number of persons under age 15 in the population the ageing index equals 100. Values under 100 signifies the number of older persons is less than the number of young persons while values above 100 indicate the reverse. As Table 2.3 reveals, the ageing index rises steadily after 1980 but remains under 100 until shortly after 2020. Thereafter the index continues rising signifying the ever greater excess number of the older age population compared to the population under age 15. Another common age structure measure related to population ageing, and one that has implications for the impact that population ageing has for older persons, is the potential support ratio, defined as the ratio of the population aged 15-64 to that aged 65 9
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Page 9 and 10: Executive Summary Introduction Popu
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Section 6: Policy and Programme Res
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Section 7: Key findings and recomme
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Section 7: Key findings and recomme
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Endnotes 1 On gender and ageing see
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Bibliography Bryant, J. 2005. Proje
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Knodel, John, Napaporn Chayovan, Si
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Verbrugge, Lois. 1989. The Twain Me
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