US-China Commission Report - Fatal System Error

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However, President Ma’s administration announced in late August
that it was suspending research and development work on this
longer-range variant. Work will continue on the production and deployment
of shorter-range variants intended for tactical strikes
against military facilities and naval staging areas along the mainland
coast. 176 This change is consistent with a conventional defense
strategy to target military forces conducting an assault on Taiwan
but effectively abandons a ‘‘strategic deterrent’’ strategy to deter an
attack on Taiwan by threatening civilian and infrastructure targets
on the mainland.
Conclusions
• The United States has an important interest in ensuring the survival
of a democratic government in Taiwan. The United States
has explicit commitments set forth in the Taiwan Relations Act
to assist Taiwan with its own defense.
• While relations between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of
China (PRC) have improved over the past year, tensions remain,
and unresolved issues regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty and status
continue to divide the two sides. The status of Taiwan creates a
potentially dangerous situation that risks armed conflict if the
relationship and its inherent tensions are not managed carefully
by both sides.
• An armed conflict between the PRC and Taiwan would impair security,
stability, and prosperity in East Asia and could involve
the United States. It is in the interest of the United States to
foster a peaceful resolution of Taiwan’s international status and
maintenance of a peaceful status quo until that resolution can be
achieved.
• The successful peaceful change of government between rival parties
in Taiwan during 2008 demonstrates the continuing maturation
and stabilization of Taiwan’s youthful democratic process.
• Taiwan’s political discourse remains vibrant and strong, with
pronounced policy differences between Taiwan’s major political
parties regarding economic ties with mainland China and the
best means to provide for Taiwan’s prosperity and security. Taiwan’s
new government has introduced significant shifts in economic
and diplomatic policy that emphasize seeking improved relations
and liberalized economic ties with mainland China while
also seeking improved relations with the United States.
• Officials of Taiwan’s government have indicated that they will
follow a pragmatic policy of seeking membership in international
organizations that do not require internationally recognized status
as a state as a prerequisite for membership, and official observer
status or other avenues for meaningful participation in
international organizations that require statehood for membership.
• Officials in the Ma Administration have described a new defense
policy that deemphasizes deterrent or power projection options
directed against the mainland and instead relies on a more conventional
defense strategy based on defensive weapon systems.