Martin Hedberg

Climate Change
Martin Hedberg
Martin.Hedberg@swc.se
+46 70 601 04 05
Swedish Weather & Climate Centre AB

Climate
14,5°C
weather statistics

Average temperature
+20
21st century
+15
20th century
+10
Ice-age
˚C

Climate change, how do you know it is happening

Global Temperature
Medelvärdet 1951-1980
Last uppdated: 2011-01-12
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Ocean heat content 0-700m
Climate Indicators, NOAA
Arndt, D. S., M. O. Baringer, and M. R. Johnson, Eds., 2010: State of the Climate in 2009. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91 (7), S1-S224.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009-time-series/

Sea Level
Climate Indicators, NOAA
Arndt, D. S., M. O. Baringer, and M. R. Johnson, Eds., 2010: State of the Climate in 2009. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91 (7), S1-S224.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009-time-series/

–3.3% per decade
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews

Stratospheric temperature
Climate Indicators, NOAA
Arndt, D. S., M. O. Baringer, and M. R. Johnson, Eds., 2010: State of the Climate in 2009. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91 (7), S1-S224.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009-time-series/

What does ”0,75º warmer” mean
±0º +0,5º
−0,5º +3,0º

Global Temperature Anomalies, July 2010
Global surface temperature anomalies for July 2010 compared to average temperatures for the same time
of year from 1951 to 1980.
It was more than 5 degrees Celsius warmer than climatology in the region of Eastern Europe.
July 2010 was practically in a three-way tie for the warmest July on record, tied with July 1998 and July 2005.
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov

5 million years ago:
Sea level +15-25 m.
120.000 years ago:
Sea Level 4-6 meter
Figure 2. Global temperature relative to peak Holocene temperature (Hansen and Sato, 2011).
Present
time
2.2. Paleoclimate Temperature
Hansen and Sato (2011) illustrate Earth's temperature on a broad range of time scales.
Figure 2(a) shows estimated Figure 2. global Global mean temperature temperature relative 14 to during peak Holocene the Pliocene temperature and Pleistocene, (Hansen and Sato, 2011).
approximately the past five million years. Figure 2(b) shows higher temporal resolution, so that
the more recent glacial 2.2. to Paleoclimate interglacial climate Temperature oscillations are more apparent.
Climate variations summarized Hansen and Sato in Figure (2011) 2 are illustrate huge. Earth's During temperature the last ice age, on a 20,000 broad range of time scales.
years ago, global mean Figure temperature 2(a) shows was estimated about 5°C global lower mean than temperature today. But 14 regional during the changes Pliocene on and Pleistocene,
land were larger. Most approximately of Canada the was past under five an million ice sheet. years. New Figure York 2(b) City shows was buried higher under temporal that resolution, so that

2° Multi-Met
Sea Leve

Sea level change
20 meters in 400 years
Fleming et al. 1998, Fleming 2000, & Milne et al. 2005

Feedbacks

Feedbacks
A
B
Positive (amplifying)
Negative (dampening)
Changes are amplified.
Makes ”regime shifts” possible.
Can be destructive.
The system oscillates within limits.
Creates stability.
Overcorrecting can make the system crash.

Albedo feedback
80%
20%
ice/snow
water
DN 22 mars, 2009. Foto: Nick Cobbing

From Ice-age to warm period
More
solar energy
Warmer
climate
Melting of
glaciers
More solar
energy is
converted to
heat
Darker land
and ocean

From Ice-age to warm period
More
solar energy
Warmer
climate
Warmer
oceans
Increased
greenhouse
effect
Release of
CO2

Tipping point
Tipping point: The threshold where a small further variation
can cause considerable change in the system.
Resiliens: a system's ability to absorb shocks and continue to
operate in a similar way as before.

Four frightening Tipping Points
Polar Ice Melting
Methane Burp
Widespread drought
Shutdown of Ocean Currents

Amazon rainforest
2005: 100-years drought
2010: Next 100-years drought
1,6 billion tons of carbon
2,2 billion tons of carbon

Extreme weather is a product of Climate Change
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfmid=extreme-weather-caused-by-climate-change

Sommarvärme i Europa
Normal Climate
Future Climate
Average temperatures june-august
Zürich, Basel, Bern & Geneve
1864-2003
june-august 2003
South Europe june-aug 2003:
✓ 30.000 dead
✓ Crop failure
✓ Lack of electricity and Water
✓ Large forest fires
Schär et al. 2004, Nature 427, 332-336

Russia summer of 2010
http://blogs.sacbee.com
Source: AFP

Pakistan summer of 2010
August 18, 2009 August 17, 2010
Indus River
earthobservatory.nasa.gov
http://www.defence.pk/

Climate
Phosphorus,
Nitrogen
Chemical waste
Land use Water Ocean acidification
Ozone Aerosols Biodiversity

Why don’t we react
Our brain has, through thousands of
generations, developed a skill to
predict risk and avoid harmful or
deadly situations.
We react when we face: Fast moving objects and situations, Colour,
Smell, Taste, Pattern, Fear, Greed, Happiness, Sex, Moral issues, ...
But neither anthropogenic changes, nor their causes,
Charles Darwin 1879
trigger human instincts.
We only understand them through our intellect.

The Climate System
Atmosphere
(air)
Anthroposphere
(mankind)
Hydrosphere
(water)
Dynamic, continuously changing.
Positive/negative feedback
Non-linear
Irreversible
Biosphere
(plants and animals)
Crysphere
(snow and ice)
Geosphere
(land)

Understanding the World
Reductionism: If you understand the details, you
also get the big picture. (Descartes, 1596-1650)
Deterministic mechanics: The Earth is governed by
precise and predictable laws. (Newton, 1643-1727).
Complex systems: Systems containing life.
These systems have the ability to learn, select, adapt and
reorganize themselves. Natural law specify general conditions, but can
not describe the developments.
The systems can occur in several ways, as different "regimes".
They are irreversible: they can not "go back".

Complex Adaptive System, CAS
1. Diversity among components
2. Interaction (flow of energy/nutrition/information)
3. Selection processes and learning within the system
Complicated,
The Economy: Forest: Immune Game World: of Poker:
Complex but system: Complex
Adaptive not Complex
Complex Adaptive Adaptive
System
System
System

cold normal warm
Weather If is you to can’t calculate tell us if it’s going to rain or not
how every two weeks bean from, rolls. how can you say anything
about the climate ten years ahead
Climate is to see
how they landed.

martin.hedberg@swc.se

Greenhouse gas
A gas that can absorb and
emit IR-radiation (heat).
H2O
CO2
CH4
N2O
O3
CFC’s

How deep can you
see in a lake
How transparent is
the air regarding heat
-It depends on the
opacity,
i.e. ”muddiness”.
It depends on the
opacity,
i.e. greenhouse gases.

Colder and thinner
with height.
−60º
−50º
The higher up, the colder
−40º
−30º
−20º
−10º
0º
+10º

Energy to and from the Earth
From the Sun: 1366 W/m 2
Reflected: 406 W/m 2
239,5 W/m 2
Radiation 240 W/m
X
2
−18ºC
colder
−18ºC
960 W/m 2 H2O
CO2
CH4
N2O
O3
Freons
The difference heat up:
✓ Ocean
✓ Atmosphere
✓ Land
✓ Glaciers

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
160 billion tons of forest
+ 330 billion tons fossil carbon
390 ppm
280 ppm
www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends

Roger Revelle and Hans E. Suess, 1957
“Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of
an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 during the Past Decades.” Tellus 1957.
Svante Arrhenius, 1896
“On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon
the temperature of the ground.”
Joseph Fourier, 1824
"Remarques Générales Sur Les Températures Du Globe Terrestre Et Des Espaces
Planétaires." Annales de Chemie et de Physique 27: 136-67.

Politician knew. 1965
Lyndon Johnson. Special message to Congress, 1965:
”This generation has altered the composition
of the atmosphere on a global scale
through ... a steady increase in carbon dioxide
from the burning of fossil fuels.”
Naomi Oreskes 2010. http://www.youtube.com/watchv=2T4UF_Rmlio
Lyndon Baines Johnson (1908– 1973)
United States Vice President 1961-63,
President 1963-69

Skeptical Science April 20, 2010

Aerosols
Kina den 12 juni, 2008 (NASA)

extra
100-1000 years
Greenhouse gases
Warming
extra
Weeks-Months
Aerosols
Cooling

Change of Radiative forcing
IPCC 2007 WG1 AR4

OK, the warming comes from GHG,
But where does the GHG come from

Volcanos
Emissions from LARGE volcanos (ex Pinatubo 1991):
✓Aerosols: 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide (SO2) reflected
sunlight and decreased the global temperature by up to 0,6
ºC for 1-3 years.
✓CO2: Total amount was equal to 12 hrs of human emissions.
Human emission of CO2 is 150 times bigger than all volcanos
together.
The sulfur dioxide from large volcanos, together with chlorine
from CFC’s, also destroy stratospheric ozone.
Pinatubo Volcano (90 km NW of Manila city, Philippines), June 15 1991
http://earth.esa.int/applications/data_util/SARDOCS/spaceborne/Radar_Applications/Land_Applications/lahars_deposits_mount_pinatubo_philippines.htm
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/index.php

Sunspots
solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov

Global Temperature index
Medelvärdet 1951-1980
Last uppdated: 2011-01-12
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

760 G ton C +4/year
(∼600 G ton C)
− 4/year
+ 212 Gt C
+ 8 Gt C
- 216 Gt C
Human activities

What increased the CO2
160 billion tons
of deforestation
330 billion tons
of fossil carbon

Ocean acidification
Change of sea surface pH from 1700 untill1990.
Jeremy Jacquot, June 12th, 2008
www.scienceprogress.org

~ 20%
Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2000-2007)
Atmosphere
~ 46%
(1.5 Pg Carbon /yr)
Land
~ 80% ~ 29%
+
4.2 Pg Carbon/yr
2.6 Pg Carbon/yr
(7.5 Pg Carbon /yr)
Oceans
~ 26%
2.3 Pg Carbon/yr
Down
~ 5%
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)
Robert W. Corell. The H. John Heinz Center for Science, Economics and the Environment
John D. Sterman. MIT Sloan School of Management

” There is a lot more fossil fuel available
on Earth than what will be possible to
use, due to its impact on climate.”
Bert Bolin, 1974

Emissions of fossil carbon 1850-2007
9000
8000
7000
☛
75% chance to
make the 2°-goal.
☛
☛
http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
❚ Peak 2010 −3,7 %/år
❚ Peak 2015 −5,3 %/år
❚ Peak 2020 −9,0 %/år
Million tons per year
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Total carbon emissions
Gas fuel consumption
Liquid fuel consumption
Solid fuel consumption
Cement production
Gas flaring
0
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
År
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center 2009-10-22. http://cdiac.ornl.gov

Jordens befolkning
Världen år 2050:
Konstant ökning 12
Hög 11
Medel 9
Låg 8 miljarder inv.
Miljoner invånare (logaritmisk skala)
År
FN 2006 (http://esa.un.org/unpp/)
swc.se

The alternative

Hack the climate
1. Deflect sunlight back into space
Fast, Cheap and Uncertain. Does not deal with
the actual problem.
2. Draw down CO2 from atmosphere
Slow and expensive, but it can reduce the carbon.

Geo-engineering
L19703
ROBOCK ET AL.: BENEFITS, RISKS, AND C
3 ROBOCK ET AL.: BENEFITS, RISKS, AND COSTS OF GEOENGINEERING L19703
e 1. Proposed methods of stratospheric aerosol injection. A mountain top location would require less energy for
g to stratosphere. Drawing by Brian West.
aller ones These important topics are currently being
tigated by us, and here we limit the discussion to just
g the precursor gases into the stratosphere.
Gunnbjorn Mountain, Greenland, is the highest point in the
Arctic, reaching an altitude of 3700 m. In the tropics, there
are multiple high altitude locations in the Andes.
Table 1. Benefits and Risks of Stratospheric Geoengineering a
Benefits
Risks
1. Cool planet 1. Drought in Africa and Asia
2. Reduce or reverse
2. Continued ocean acidification
sea ice melting
from CO 2
3. Reduce or reverse land 3. Ozone depletion
ice sheet melting
4. No more blue skies
4. Reduce or reverse
5. Less solar power
sea level rise
6. Environmental impact
5. Increase plant productivity of implementation
6. Increase terrestrial CO 2 sink 7. Rapid warming if stopped
8. Cannot stop effects quickly
9. Human error
10. Unexpected consequences
11. Commercial control
12. Military use of technology
13. Conflicts with current treaties
14. Whose hand on the thermostat
15. Ruin terrestrial optical astronomy
16. Moral hazard – the prospect
of it working would reduce
drive for mitigation
17. Moral authority – do we have
the right to do this
a The right column is an update of Robock [2008a].
Robock, A., A. Marquardt, B. Kravitz, and G. Stenchikov (2009), Benifits, risks, and costs of
stratospheric geoengineering, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19703, doi:10.1029/2009GL039209.
et al., 2002, 2003; Wigley, 2006; Rasch et al., 2008a, 2008b;
perma
the op
episod
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Never
engin
to cou
produ
3. R
[8]
must
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Kravi
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And
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Geo-engineering
Scientists say: ”It could offer strategies of last resort
if abrupt, catastrophic or otherwise unacceptable
climate-change impacts become unavoidable.”
✓ Large uncertainties about the outcome.
✓ How to decide when to start
✓ Once you started: Can you stop
✓ Who makes the decisions
✓ Physical/Political/Legal risks

Choices
There is enough renewable energy for mankind. But we lack
the infrastructure and global political/economical incentives()
to reduce the mining of fossil carbon.
1. To leave oil, gas and coal in the ground for other reasons
than economical or technical seem unlikely.
2. Geo-engineering is cheap and bad, or expensive and slow.
And comes with large risks.
3. Accept catastrophes and try to adapt is very uncomfortable.
Consequences can not be reversed.

Uncertainty favours Inaction

Deal with Climate
Peak Oil/Reduced
mining of fossil carbon.
Geopolitical
consequences
Adaptation to Climate
changes
Infrastructure for
energy safety
Production of food &
water
Social and financial
crisis

Martin Hedberg
martin.hedberg@swc.se
+ 46 70 601 04 05