Staff Reports - East Bay Municipal Utility District

Enclosure 3
EAST BAY MUNICIPAL UTILITY DISTRICT DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS
(Reference: Table 4-3, UWMP 2010 - EBMUD)
PROJECTED DEMAND (MGD)
CUSTOMER DEMAND 2
ADJUSTED FOR CUMULATIVE CONSERVATION 3
ADJUSTED FORRECYCLED WATER 4
PLANNING LEVEL OF DEMAND
2010
251
(26)
(9)
216
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035' 2040
266
(32)
(ID
223
280
(43)
(16)
221
291
(49)
(18)
224
304
(56)
(19)
229
308
(59)
(20)
229
312
(62)
(20)
230
PROJECTED AVAILABLE SUPPLY AND NEED FOR SUPPLEMENTAL SUPPLY (MGD)'
NORMAL YEAR
SUPPLEMENTAL SUPPLY NEED
>216
0
>223 >221
0
>224
0
>229
0
>229 >230
0
SINGLE DRY YEAR (MULTIPLE DRY YEARS-YEAR 1)
AVAILABLE SUPPLY
CUSTOMER RATIONING 6
211
2%
TOTAL SUPPLEMENTAL SUPPLY NEED (TAB 7 53
SUPPLEMENTAL SUPPLY NEED 7
"5
MULTIPLE DRY YEARS - YEAR 2
AVAILABLE SUPPLY
183
CUSTOMER RATIONING 6
15%
SUPPLEMENTAL SUPPLY NEED 7
21
MULTIPLE DRY YEARS - YEAR 3
AVAILABLE SUPPLY
183
CUSTOMERRATIONING 6
15%
SUPPLEMENTAL SUPPLY NEED 7
21
THREE-YEARDROUGHT
1 Projected demand for 2035 is interpolated.
1 Customer demand value&are based on the demand projections from the "2040 Demand Study," feb 2009. These projected water dernandsare based on land use mEBMEBO's.Ultimate service
area and is unadjusted for conservation and non-potable water. The values are also unadjusted for the current suppressed demand due to the 2007-2010 rattening.pefeand the economic
downturn.
* Existing conservation saving from the "1994 Water Conservation Master Plan" and planned conservation program savings based on the "2011 Water Conservation Master Plan".
4 Existing recycled water achieved per the "1993 Water Suppry Management Program" and planned recycled water program savings as outlined in Chapter 5 of theiOWMP 2010.
5
ProjededavailablesupprydataMudesdyyearsuppty*liveriesfromthefteeportEegionalWaterProjectPWP)arriBaysideGrourKteterProjed,Phasel.I)elweryrulesfortheIRWfollcw
the rules as developed in the PreeportEIR, 2003.
6 Rationing reduction goals are determined according to projected system storage levels in the Long-Term Drought Management Program guidelines per Table 3-2 in Chapter 3 of the UWMP
2010.
7 The supplemental supply need is based on EBMUDSM modeling studies. It is the amount of water needed based on EBMUD's updated demand projections, the provisions of the 1998 joint
Settlement Agreement and the rationing policy stated in Table 3-2, Chapter 3of the UWMP 2010. The actual need will be dependenton antecedent eondtfons and the severity.of actual drought
concfitions. Supplemental suppry stored during the initialyear of the drought could be later released, diminishing supplemental supply needs. During, the drought that continued into 2010, the
combined effects of water rationing and an economfcotowrrturn suppressed demand betow the planning lewl rf
mental water. However, if the drought had continued into its second year, most litery supplemental supplies would have rje^nobtaned from the FreeportBegionaJWater-Fadlityas anticipated
in the Interim Drought Management Program Guidelines discussed in Appendix G-2.
217
3%
6
189
15%
21
189
15%
21
54
215
3%
6
188
15%
21
188
m
21
54
218
3%
7
190
15%
21
190
15%
21
55
223
3%
7
194
15%
22
183
15%
33
69
222
3%
8
194
15%
22
164
15%
53
m
222
4%
8
195
15%
22
w.
15%
73
115