Inside the Boardroom with Alan Bagley - SETI Institute

detecting life beyond Earth. His emphasis
is squarely on the human factor, as is
evident from the subtitles of several of his
books, including Spacefaring:
The Human Dimension and After Contact:
The Human Response to Extraterrestrial
Life. Recently, Harrison has turned his attention
to a different sort of impact from
space: the threat of a massive Near Earth
Object (NEO) that could wipe out civilization
as we know it. “If volcanic activity or
a NEO strike were sufficiently energetic to
produce the equivalent of a nuclear winter,”
Harrison says, “there would be no
speedy return to normal.”
At some level, we can anticipate life in a
post-impact world by looking at other natural
disasters. But the scale of destruction
makes many comparisons irrelevant. We
might expect to see heroic acts of altruism
and charity following such a catastrophe,
for example, but the magnitude of the devastation
may limit the role that good intentions
can play. “Following a major NEO
impact,” Harrison explains, “there may be
no rich people to aid the poor.”
But given our natural ways of coping
with disasters, fear and denial may be the
critical factors that threaten humanity’s
very survival. Learning of an impending
NEO impact might well lead to responses
akin to those observed by psychiatric
social worker Terrance O’Connor when
people face environmental problems – or
refuse to face them. “Avoidance reactions
are common,” he notes. “Most boil down
to ‘I don’t want to hear about it,’ or
‘It’s not my responsibility.’ Some
people convince themselves
that ‘it’s not happening.’”
Clinical psychologist Sarah
Conn describes a similar
reaction to threats. “We feel
either overwhelmed by or
removed from what we
learned about environmental
deterioration,”
she suggests. “We become
helpless or indifferent in
the face of it, and unable
to respond except with
numbness and denial.”
In the face of
an impending NEO
impact, similar denial
may have irreversible
consequences.
Strategies for Survival
What then should we do if danger is
upon us The key, Harrison notes, is to
remain open to new information that
pours in during the weeks, months, and
years following the first detection of a
menacing NEO.
Such openness will be difficult to maintain
in tense and ambiguous times. In spite
of our natural tendency to choose quickly
one plan of defense and stay with it, it will
be critical to evaluate alternative strategies
as updated information is received.
At each step of the way, if we can
anticipate our automatic responses, we
can beware of their potential problems.
For example, a natural tendency will be to
focus on the view of the majority, excluding
alternative solutions. And yet, innovative
approaches that take into account
new data or different perspectives may be
the key to survival. But what, practically,
can we do to promote more productive responses
First, we need to be aware of our
tendency to latch quickly onto one answer,
even when subsequent information calls it
into question. To guard against such uncritical
acceptance of one position, some
key decision makers may be selected to
play the role of devil’s advocate. By sanctioning
the role of dissident, unpopular
but potentially vital alternatives can be
explored, providing one safeguard against
monolithic “groupthink.”
“Of course the ultimate protection for
our race,” suggests Harrison, “is dispersal
beyond our home planet.” In tandem
with preparations to protect the welfare
of Earth-bound people, colonies might
also be established on other planets. “Dispersal
throughout the solar system will
not necessarily protect us from all risks,”
he acknowledges, “but we would be far
better protected from extinction than we
are right now.”
Dr. Douglas Vakoch
Director of Interstellar
Message Composition
SETI Institute
Dr. Vakoch is a clinical
psychologist who serves on
the International Academy of
Astronautics’ Study Group on
Earth-threatening Asteroids
and Comets.
PLANETARY, continued from pg. 11
So, it is realistic to take for granted
that any such proposal, if put forward officially
to any country’s political institutions,
would immediately be rejected by
politicians as well as by the public at large.
Just think of all the problems that NASA
and ESA are having with ecologists simply
in order to put Radioactive Thermal Generators
(RTGs) aboard their spacecraft.
Ecologists against RTGs actually support a
narrow-minded view of ecology, based on
the oversimplified belief that whatever is
“nuclear” is “dangerous.” This is the heritage
of the Cold War and of all wars that
went before it.
The threat of impactors creating havoc
on the Earth’s surface is real, as was well
proven by the Tunguska event of 1908.
However (and fortunately!) the Tunguska
disaster took place in a lonely forest of Siberia,
and so there were no casualties. In
addition, back in 1908 not even the scientific
community was ready to accept that
such an disaster could possibly occur, not
to mention that governments and lay people
were not ready at all to learn the Tunguska
lesson. So, everything went on just
as if nothing had happened at Tunguska,
until the first scientists took some notice
in 1927.
All this shows well that humankind still
is not yet ready to face the threat of impactors
and comets. Only when humans stop
planning and conducting big wars among
themselves will governments have more
time to think about new dangers coming
from space. And ecologists will mature to
the point of not hampering their governmental
agencies in putting up missiles and
weapons in space if these will prevent dangerous
asteroids and comets from obliterating
humankind, including the ecologists
themselves.
In conclusion, this new consciousness
about a danger that affects the whole of
humankind will sooner or later surface for
the vast majority of people, and prepare
them for the challenges of a new millennium.
Dr. Claudio Maccone
Mathematician
Dr. Maccone is a member of
the International Academy
of Astronautics, as well as
an active member of its SETI
Permanent Study Group. He
lives in Torino, Italy.
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