Inside the Boardroom with Alan Bagley - SETI Institute
Inside the Boardroom with Alan Bagley - SETI Institute
Inside the Boardroom with Alan Bagley - SETI Institute
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Explorer<br />
Second Quarter 2005<br />
Volume 2, Number 2<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> INSTITUTE
Contents<br />
03 Letter from <strong>the</strong> CEO<br />
03 Science Editor’s Desk<br />
04 Saving <strong>the</strong> Planet<br />
06 Cracking <strong>the</strong> Code of Pre-Earthquake Signals<br />
09 Perseids<br />
10 Planetary Defense in Space<br />
12 Reacting to Disaster<br />
14 Cosmic Catastrophe and Armageddon<br />
16 <strong>Inside</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Boardroom</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>Alan</strong> <strong>Bagley</strong><br />
17 Cosmic News<br />
18 Here Comes Andromeda<br />
21 Allen Telescope Array Update<br />
22 The <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>’s New Educational Classes<br />
Explorer<br />
Editor in Chief<br />
Karen Randall<br />
Science Editor<br />
Seth Shostak<br />
Creative Director<br />
Ly Ly<br />
Managing Editor<br />
Jennifer Bugnatto<br />
Assistant Designer<br />
Ngan Truong<br />
Contact us<br />
Annual Fund Manager<br />
Natalie Jackson<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
515 North Whisman Road<br />
Mountain View, CA 94043<br />
Telephone: 650.961.6633<br />
FAX: 650.961.7099<br />
www.seti.org<br />
membership@seti.org<br />
Board of Trustees<br />
Greg Papadopoulos<br />
Chairman of <strong>the</strong> Board, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Executive VP and Chief Technology Officer,<br />
Sun Microsystems<br />
John Billingham<br />
Vice Chairman of <strong>the</strong> Board, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Former Chief, NASA ARC, <strong>SETI</strong> Office<br />
Thomas Pierson<br />
Board Secretary, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
CEO, Founder, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
<strong>Alan</strong> <strong>Bagley</strong><br />
Former General Manager, Hewlett-Packard Co.<br />
Founder, Los Altos Community Foundation<br />
Linda S. Bernardi<br />
Founder, CEO, and President, ConnecTerra, Inc.<br />
Trustee, <strong>Institute</strong> for Women and Technology<br />
Joel S. Birnbaum<br />
Senior Technical Advisor, Hewlett-Packard Co.<br />
Former Sr. VP of Research and Development,<br />
Hewlett-Packard Co.<br />
Chair, National Research Council Committee on<br />
Improving CyberSecurity Research<br />
Member, National Academy of Engineering<br />
Fellow, <strong>Institute</strong> of Electrical and<br />
Electronics Engineers, Inc.<br />
Baruch Blumberg<br />
President of <strong>the</strong> American Philosophical Society<br />
Nobel Laureate, Prize in Medicine<br />
Distinguished Scientist at Fox Chase Cancer Center<br />
Former Director, NASA Astrobiology <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Member, National Academy of Sciences<br />
Frank Drake<br />
Chairman Emeritus, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Director, Center for <strong>the</strong> Study of Life in <strong>the</strong> Universe,<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Member, National Academy of Sciences<br />
Sandra Faber<br />
Professor, University of California at Santa Cruz<br />
Member, National Academy of Sciences<br />
Member, President’s Advisory Panel,<br />
National Academy of Sciences<br />
Andrew Fraknoi<br />
Chair, Astronomy Department, Foothill College<br />
Director, Project ASTRO<br />
Former Executive Director, Astronomical<br />
Society of <strong>the</strong> Pacific<br />
Carl Sagan Prize for Science Popularization<br />
John Gertz<br />
Founder and CEO, Zorro Productions<br />
Steven L. Mourning<br />
Executive VP, Kelmoore Investment Co.<br />
Former Chief Development Officer, Palo Alto<br />
Medical Foundation<br />
David Nagel<br />
President and CEO, PalmSource, Inc.<br />
Former Chief Technology Officer, AT&T<br />
Former Member, President’s Information Technology<br />
Advisory Committee<br />
Lewis E. Platt<br />
Former CEO, President, and Chairman,<br />
Hewlett-Packard Co.<br />
Chairman, Boeing Co.<br />
Board member of 7–Eleven and<br />
The Packard Foundation<br />
Member of Advisory Committee on<br />
Trade Policy and Negotiations<br />
Former Chairman of <strong>the</strong> World Trade Organization<br />
Task Force<br />
David Pratt<br />
CEO, Callidus Software<br />
Former Executive VP and Chief Operating Officer,<br />
Adobe Systems, Inc.<br />
Charles Townes<br />
Professor Emeritus, University of California at<br />
Berkeley<br />
2005 Templeton Prize<br />
Nobel Laureate, Prize in Physics<br />
Member, National Academy of Science<br />
Member, National Academy of Engineering<br />
William J. Welch<br />
Professor of Astronomy, University of California<br />
at Berkeley<br />
Watson and Marilyn Alberts Chair, UC Berkeley<br />
Member, National Academy of Sciences<br />
<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
Letter from <strong>the</strong> CEO<br />
July 2005<br />
Dear <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> supporter,<br />
Previously, we introduced <strong>the</strong> world of extremophiles and <strong>the</strong>ir ability to survive<br />
<strong>the</strong> most intense of conditions. We now shift our focus to humankind’s key to<br />
survival: foresight.<br />
In this issue of Explorer, we examine a wide range of potential threats to Earth<br />
and consider what we might do to protect ourselves. Preparedness lies in <strong>the</strong><br />
willingness to face <strong>the</strong>se threats head on, educating ourselves now before <strong>the</strong> danger<br />
is imminent.<br />
Catastrophic changes to Earth’s environment 65 million years ago that led to <strong>the</strong><br />
extinction of <strong>the</strong> dinosaurs—often attributed to <strong>the</strong> impact of a massive asteroid on<br />
Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula—also allowed for <strong>the</strong> rise of <strong>the</strong> mammals, eventually<br />
yielding humankind. Life on Earth is tenacious, always ready to take advantage<br />
of chance circumstances. The concept of 65 million years seems improbable to a<br />
society that prefers <strong>the</strong> speed of sound to <strong>the</strong> speed of evolution. As Louis Pasteur<br />
put it, “chance favors <strong>the</strong> prepared mind.” Preparing now through education and<br />
research is our insurance policy for <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
With warm regards,<br />
Tom Pierson<br />
Chief Executive Officer<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Mission Statement<br />
The mission of <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> is to explore, understand and explain <strong>the</strong> origin,<br />
nature and prevalence of life in <strong>the</strong> universe.<br />
On <strong>the</strong> Cover<br />
An artist’s rendering of an asteroid heading toward Earth.<br />
Image courtesy Seth Shostak<br />
From <strong>the</strong><br />
Science<br />
Editor’s Desk<br />
by Seth Shostak<br />
Two decades ago, I pitched what<br />
I thought was a great story to<br />
<strong>the</strong> science editor of a national<br />
magazine. I offered to describe<br />
<strong>the</strong> inevitable death of <strong>the</strong> universe.<br />
I got an angry rejection, <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> complaint<br />
that <strong>the</strong> idea was both “dystopian<br />
and completely speculative.”<br />
Well, no argument <strong>with</strong> “dystopian.”<br />
But I took umbrage at “completely speculative.”<br />
Sure, many aspects of our planet’s<br />
future, and for that matter, <strong>the</strong> fate of <strong>the</strong><br />
We can’t reliably predict<br />
societal evolution, or<br />
even our own personal<br />
behavior next month.<br />
But physics is forever.<br />
universe, remain subject to chance (will<br />
Earth be flash-sterilized by a gamma ray<br />
burst) or poorly known (when, exactly, do<br />
all <strong>the</strong> protons disintegrate).<br />
But predicting <strong>the</strong> future of <strong>the</strong><br />
universe – even foretelling what will happen<br />
a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion<br />
years from now and more – is not like trying<br />
to guess <strong>the</strong> stock market. It requires<br />
only a few astronomical observations and<br />
physics.<br />
We can’t reliably predict societal evolution,<br />
or even our own personal behavior<br />
next month. But physics is forever. Ten<br />
millennia from now, folks may not be<br />
greatly attuned to <strong>the</strong> art and music of<br />
<strong>the</strong> 19 th century, but <strong>the</strong>y will still expect<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir electronic devices to work. And those<br />
devices will be built on <strong>the</strong> basis of James<br />
Maxwell’s equations from <strong>the</strong> 1870s.<br />
Science is rewarding for a lot of reasons.<br />
It’s exciting and it’s challenging. Sure, being<br />
a tax consultant helps folks, and it pays<br />
<strong>the</strong> bills, too. But in <strong>the</strong> 101 st century, those<br />
tax forms will be archaeological dross, and<br />
not of much relevance. On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand,<br />
<strong>the</strong> discoveries of science will still be hanging<br />
in <strong>the</strong>re. They’ve got legs. After all,<br />
once we’ve uncovered one of nature’s secrets,<br />
her behavior is no longer “completely<br />
speculative.”<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary
Astobiology<br />
Education<br />
Artist’s concept of a meteor shower in<br />
prehistoric times.<br />
© David A. Hardy/ www.astroart.org<br />
Saving <strong>the</strong> Planet<br />
Science Education is Good for Everyone’s Future<br />
by Seth Shostak<br />
It’s a familiar chestnut: “<strong>the</strong> dinosaurs would be around today if <strong>the</strong>y only had a space<br />
program.” Of course <strong>the</strong>re’s truth in this. If <strong>the</strong> lubberly lizards that once stomped <strong>the</strong><br />
planet had rocket technology, <strong>the</strong>y might have deflected <strong>the</strong> 5-mile diameter asteroid<br />
that speedily incinerated <strong>the</strong>m and subsequently starved most of what remained.<br />
<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
Of course, a space program – while necessary<br />
– wouldn’t have been sufficient to<br />
forestall <strong>the</strong> dino’s incandescent demise. A<br />
good defense would have required an active<br />
astronomy effort to detect <strong>the</strong> incoming<br />
rock. Physics was essential as well, for<br />
o<strong>the</strong>rwise how could <strong>the</strong>y calculate <strong>the</strong><br />
asteroid’s orbit<br />
This is an all-too-elaborate digression<br />
on a wry joke, but <strong>the</strong>re’s little doubt that<br />
our brains, schooled in science, can insure<br />
us against <strong>the</strong> sort of cosmic catastrophes<br />
that might afflict us in <strong>the</strong> next few tens of<br />
billions of years.<br />
For example, imagine <strong>the</strong> sorts of things<br />
we might do when faced <strong>with</strong> an impending<br />
ice age. Such an event can begin ra<strong>the</strong>r<br />
quickly (in decades), and would be disastrous<br />
for Canada and Europe. But fending<br />
off <strong>the</strong> Big Chill might not be impossible.<br />
One approach would be to decrease Earth’s<br />
albedo – which is not its lust for o<strong>the</strong>r planets,<br />
but <strong>the</strong> fraction of incoming sunlight<br />
that it reflects back into space. In o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
words, we could arrange for our planet to<br />
be less bright. A way of doing this would be<br />
to use a fleet of aircraft to layer <strong>the</strong> ice fields<br />
of <strong>the</strong> arctic <strong>with</strong> coal dust, so <strong>the</strong>y became<br />
warmer in <strong>the</strong> sun.<br />
As an alternative to this gritty approach,<br />
we might, by <strong>the</strong> end of this century, be capable<br />
of building very large, orbiting solar<br />
reflectors, aimed earthward to bring a little<br />
more light into our lives. If we increased<br />
<strong>the</strong> amount of sunlight hitting our planet<br />
by 10% or so, we’d no doubt reverse any<br />
cooling trend.<br />
Ano<strong>the</strong>r straightforward possibility<br />
would be to bring back Freon, <strong>the</strong> coolant<br />
that once circulated in our refrigerators and<br />
air conditioners. It’s a great greenhouse gas<br />
(which, of course, is why it was phased out),<br />
so smashing up old fridges, and <strong>the</strong>reby<br />
boosting <strong>the</strong> greenhouse effect, could keep<br />
<strong>the</strong> world from growing cold. You could<br />
also buy an extra SUV, which would do<br />
much <strong>the</strong> same. Let’s face it: ice ages have<br />
been scraping up <strong>the</strong> landscape for millions<br />
of years. But <strong>with</strong> a bit of informed technology,<br />
we can insure that <strong>the</strong> last ice age<br />
will be, well, <strong>the</strong> last ice age.<br />
Consider ano<strong>the</strong>r imminent threat: a reversal<br />
of Earth’s magnetic field. This would<br />
eventually require a re-labeling of your<br />
Boy Scout compass of course, but <strong>the</strong> real<br />
problem is what happens during <strong>the</strong> interval,<br />
halfway through <strong>the</strong> reversal, when our<br />
planet has essentially no field. High energy<br />
particles that zip through space would no<br />
longer be ei<strong>the</strong>r repelled or guided to <strong>the</strong><br />
poles (where <strong>the</strong>y now produce nice auroras<br />
for <strong>the</strong> entertainment of Eskimos and<br />
Extreme Ultravoilet Imaging Telescope reveals solar flares from <strong>the</strong> sun.<br />
elk). Instead, <strong>the</strong>y would rain down everywhere,<br />
inflicting cancers on us, and wreaking<br />
similarly distasteful damage on o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
life forms.<br />
But – and this is true for many of <strong>the</strong><br />
cosmic disasters that offer to ruin your<br />
whole millennium – this reversal would not<br />
happen overnight. There would be years to<br />
prepare. By staying indoors, and perhaps<br />
adding more insulation to <strong>the</strong> attic, we<br />
could avoid DNA doom for Homo sapiens.<br />
A harder task would be protecting necessary<br />
wildlife, but keep in mind that <strong>the</strong>re<br />
have been many magnetic reversals in <strong>the</strong><br />
past, showing that nature, even <strong>with</strong>out our<br />
help, can take care of its own – or at least,<br />
evolve survivors.<br />
Many of <strong>the</strong> dangers that will confront<br />
your extremely great grandchildren involve<br />
changes in <strong>the</strong> Sun. The gradual brightening<br />
of Sol’s ignescent face will begin to interfere<br />
<strong>with</strong> plant life in 100 million years<br />
or so, but this problem, too, could be engineered<br />
away. By that distant date, it should<br />
be a fairly simple matter to erect orbiting<br />
barriers to reduce <strong>the</strong> solar flux, or possibly<br />
re-formulate our atmosphere to act as a<br />
natural screen.<br />
In a few billion years, <strong>the</strong> Sun will begin<br />
to die, swelling up like a puffer fish. An<br />
obvious counter move by our descendants<br />
would be to simply decamp to a cooler<br />
neighborhood, ei<strong>the</strong>r far<strong>the</strong>r out in <strong>the</strong> solar<br />
system (think: engineered habitats), or<br />
to ano<strong>the</strong>r star system altoge<strong>the</strong>r. Ei<strong>the</strong>r<br />
would be a grandiose engineering project,<br />
but this event is in a future so remote that it<br />
would be silly to assume that nei<strong>the</strong>r could<br />
be done. And in any case, migration would<br />
probably be simpler than trying to “rejuvenate”<br />
<strong>the</strong> Sun by changing <strong>the</strong> conditions in<br />
its dying core – a fix that has occasionally<br />
been suggested by those who like to consider<br />
<strong>the</strong> possibility that someday we will not<br />
only go to <strong>the</strong> stars, but interfere <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
personal lives.<br />
There’s no doubt that <strong>the</strong> universe will<br />
present us <strong>with</strong> difficult, and occasionally<br />
lethal, events. That’s guaranteed to happen.<br />
The dinos, despite <strong>the</strong>ir impressive<br />
bulk and Naugahyde skin, ran head-first<br />
into a cosmic catastrophe. Their bones are<br />
now stacked up, labeled, and on display.<br />
They were incapable of averting disaster.<br />
The same could be true of any society<br />
that doesn’t school its populace in science.<br />
Therein lies a lesson.<br />
Dr. Seth Shostak<br />
Senior Astronomer<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Dr. Shostak has written several<br />
hundred popular magazine and<br />
Web articles on various topics in<br />
astronomy, technology, film and<br />
television.<br />
Courtesy of SOHO/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) consortium.<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary
Astrobiology<br />
by Friedemann Freund<br />
Our Earth is a restless planet.<br />
Occasionally – quite often,<br />
in some regions of <strong>the</strong> world<br />
– <strong>the</strong> restlessness turns<br />
deadly. Of all natural hazards,<br />
earthquakes are <strong>the</strong> most feared. They<br />
are feared because <strong>the</strong>y seem to strike so<br />
unpredictably. Yet, for centuries, and even<br />
millennia, people living in seismically active<br />
regions have noted premonitory signals.<br />
The historical records talk of changes of <strong>the</strong><br />
water level in wells, of strange wea<strong>the</strong>r, of<br />
ground-hugging fog, of unusual behavior<br />
of animals (both domestic and wild) that<br />
seem to feel <strong>the</strong> approach of a major earthquake.<br />
With <strong>the</strong> advent of modern science<br />
and technology <strong>the</strong> list of premonitory signals<br />
has become even longer. Among <strong>the</strong>m<br />
are:<br />
(1) Sporadic emissions of low to ultralowfrequency<br />
electromagnetic radiation<br />
from <strong>the</strong> ground<br />
(2) Occasional local magnetic field<br />
anomalies reaching a strength of half<br />
a percent of <strong>the</strong> Earth’s main dipole<br />
field<br />
(3) Changes in <strong>the</strong> lower atmosphere that<br />
are accompanied by <strong>the</strong> formation of<br />
haze and a reduction of moisture in<br />
<strong>the</strong> air<br />
(4) Large patches, often tens to hundreds<br />
of thousands of square kilometers<br />
in size, seen in night-time infrared<br />
satellite images where <strong>the</strong> land surface<br />
temperature seems to fluctuate rapidly<br />
(5) Passing perturbations in <strong>the</strong> ionosphere<br />
at 90 - 120 km altitude that affect <strong>the</strong><br />
transmission of radio waves<br />
Collapse of Hanshin Expressway in<br />
Japan<br />
National Information Service for Earthquake Engineering,<br />
University of California, Berkeley<br />
Deciphering <strong>the</strong>se signals and learning<br />
how to “read” <strong>the</strong>m has remained a source<br />
of great frustration. Many seismologists<br />
have lost faith that earthquakes would ever<br />
become predictable beyond statistical probabilities<br />
which leave uncertainties of years,<br />
even decades. Some seismologists have<br />
proclaimed categorically that, due to <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
chaotic nature, earthquakes are fundamentally<br />
unpredictable.<br />
However, given so many well-supported<br />
historical and modern indicators that <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth does indeed send out premonitory<br />
signals, we should not be deterred by <strong>the</strong><br />
naysayers. Maybe we do not yet understand<br />
deeply enough <strong>the</strong> nature of earthquakes<br />
and <strong>the</strong> physics of <strong>the</strong> signals that <strong>the</strong> Earth<br />
sends out.<br />
Some ten years ago I became interested<br />
in this challenging topic. My earlier work<br />
had led me to study chemical and physical<br />
processes inside crystals, inside <strong>the</strong> matrix<br />
of gem-quality minerals, which can shed<br />
light on <strong>the</strong> origin of life. During this earlier<br />
work I had run across a peculiar reaction,<br />
which nobody seemed to have noted<br />
before, and hardly anybody seemed to care<br />
about. This reaction involves small amounts<br />
of water, H 2<br />
O, which become incorporated<br />
whenever a mineral crystallizes deep in<br />
<strong>the</strong> Earth’s crust or mantle in a H 2<br />
O-laden<br />
magma or any o<strong>the</strong>r high temperature<br />
H 2<br />
O-laden environment. All <strong>the</strong>se minerals,<br />
even those that do not nominally contain<br />
“water” as part of <strong>the</strong>ir crystallographic<br />
makeup, structurally dissolve some H 2<br />
O in<br />
<strong>the</strong> form of hydroxyl, typically Si-OH, and<br />
a major part of it in <strong>the</strong> form of hydroxyl<br />
pairs, Si-OH HO-Si.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> mid-1970s, long before I became<br />
interested in ei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> origin of life or preearthquake<br />
phenomena, I had discovered<br />
that such hydroxyl pairs inside crystals<br />
undergo a very unusual reaction. The two<br />
oxygens and two hydrogens fight over <strong>the</strong><br />
electrons that <strong>the</strong>y share, and <strong>the</strong> hydrogens<br />
win. They each take away one electron<br />
from <strong>the</strong>ir oxygens and turn into a hydrogen<br />
molecule, H 2<br />
. The oxygens in turn<br />
pair up to form what chemists call a peroxy<br />
bond: Si-OO-Si.<br />
For years I did not think much of this<br />
discovery, but somehow it followed me and<br />
eventually drew me into <strong>the</strong> field of geophysics<br />
and <strong>the</strong> study of <strong>the</strong> premonitory<br />
signals that <strong>the</strong> Earth sends out before major<br />
earthquakes.<br />
Electrical Rocks<br />
We normally think of rocks as being good<br />
insulators, i.e., rocks are very poor at conducting<br />
electrical currents. However, in rocks<br />
whose minerals contain peroxy bonds, a time<br />
bomb is ticking. When <strong>the</strong>se rocks are subjected<br />
to stress, <strong>the</strong> peroxy bonds break and<br />
suddenly mobile electronic charge carriers<br />
appear, so-called defect electrons that live and<br />
travel in <strong>the</strong> valence band of <strong>the</strong> constituent<br />
minerals. These charge carriers are also called<br />
Temple collapse caused by <strong>the</strong> 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake in Japan<br />
positive holes or p-holes for short.<br />
Looking back over <strong>the</strong> 30 years since<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir discovery, I am surprised to note that I<br />
always returned to <strong>the</strong>se strange and elusive<br />
charge carriers. I tried to understand <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
nature and to predict <strong>the</strong>ir behavior. The<br />
breakthrough came when I realized that<br />
<strong>the</strong>se p-holes could be activated by stress.<br />
This put me squarely on <strong>the</strong> track to study<br />
earthquake-related phenomena.<br />
Still, it took several years and several<br />
wrong starts until I was able to conceive an<br />
experiment that is amazingly simple and, at<br />
<strong>the</strong> same time, full of surprises. In Figure<br />
A is shown a 1.2 meter long slab of granite<br />
which, toge<strong>the</strong>r <strong>with</strong> my coworkers Dr. Akihiro<br />
Takeuchi and Dr. Bobby Lau, I had fitted<br />
<strong>with</strong> copper electrodes at both ends to<br />
measure currents and <strong>with</strong> a capacitor plate<br />
on <strong>the</strong> top surface to measure potentials. We<br />
inserted one end of <strong>the</strong> slab into a powerful<br />
press, but insulated it from <strong>the</strong> pistons.<br />
Then, we started to squeeze. We squeezed<br />
<strong>the</strong> rock many times and recorded <strong>the</strong> currents<br />
that started to flow out of both ends.<br />
The experiment showed that <strong>the</strong><br />
stressed volume of rock becomes a source<br />
of electronic charge carriers, p-holes and<br />
electrons. Since p-holes and electrons flow<br />
out in opposite directions, something important<br />
must happen at <strong>the</strong> boundary between<br />
<strong>the</strong> stressed and unstressed rock. The<br />
boundary allows p-holes to pass but blocks<br />
electrons. It <strong>the</strong>refore acts like a diode in a<br />
transistor. Obviously <strong>the</strong> unstressed granite<br />
is capable of conducting p-holes, meaning<br />
that it behaves like a p-type semiconductor.<br />
The electrons can flow out of <strong>the</strong> stressed<br />
rock volume only if <strong>the</strong>re is an n-type connection<br />
– in our case <strong>the</strong> copper electrode.<br />
Next we may wonder how long such<br />
currents can flow if we keep <strong>the</strong> load constant.<br />
We did a similar stress test <strong>with</strong><br />
Friedemann Freund<br />
Figure A - 1.2m long granite slab fitted<br />
<strong>with</strong> two copper electrodes and one noncontact<br />
capacitive sensor set in <strong>the</strong> press.<br />
Mitsutoshi Yoshimine, Tokyo Metropolitan University<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary
gabbro, ano<strong>the</strong>r igneous rock. Upon keeping<br />
<strong>the</strong> load constant for 30 minutes, <strong>the</strong><br />
two currents flow <strong>with</strong> barely any loss in<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir intensities. Even keeping <strong>the</strong> load constant<br />
for 12 hours leads to not more than<br />
a 15-20% reduction of <strong>the</strong> currents. This<br />
shows that, once activated, <strong>the</strong> p-holes and<br />
electrons in <strong>the</strong> stressed rock volume have a<br />
very long lifetime.<br />
Use for Earthquake Prediction<br />
How can we apply this new knowledge<br />
to earthquakes and to those hidden processes<br />
that take place deep in <strong>the</strong> Earth’s<br />
crust before tectonic stresses reach a critical<br />
level where rupture occurs and <strong>the</strong> ground<br />
starts to shake<br />
Though we stand only at <strong>the</strong> beginning<br />
of a long road to discoveries yet to come,<br />
we can already project some of our findings<br />
into geophysical reality.<br />
In Figure B, you can see a sketch of a<br />
very simplified model depicting a section<br />
through <strong>the</strong> Earth’s crust where tectonic<br />
forces begin to act on a large block of strong,<br />
rigid rocks, maybe 100 - 1000 km wide, 20<br />
km thick and 50 - 10 km in <strong>the</strong> thrust direction.<br />
As stresses build up from <strong>the</strong> left, <strong>the</strong>y<br />
cause plastic deformation propagating toward<br />
<strong>the</strong> right. The volume of rocks undergoing<br />
deformation becomes <strong>the</strong> source of<br />
p-holes and electrons. The p-holes can flow<br />
out horizontally. The electrons can flow out<br />
only if <strong>the</strong>y can connect downward into <strong>the</strong><br />
deeper, hotter and, hence, n-type conducting<br />
portions of <strong>the</strong> lower crust.<br />
In this model we obviously neglect to<br />
take into account <strong>the</strong> role of water which<br />
fills faults that deeply dissect <strong>the</strong> Earth’s<br />
crust in all tectonically active regions.<br />
Faults filled <strong>with</strong> water or brines will introduce<br />
complications, but we already know<br />
from laboratory experiments that water<br />
may short-circuit <strong>the</strong> p-hole conduction<br />
through <strong>the</strong> rocks but it does not “kill” it.<br />
Therefore we can cautiously go ahead and<br />
project some of <strong>the</strong> consequences of <strong>the</strong><br />
p-hole activation in rocks that experience<br />
ever-increasing levels of stress.<br />
One of <strong>the</strong>se consequences is that <strong>the</strong><br />
p-hole current flowing horizontally through<br />
<strong>the</strong> crust should couple to <strong>the</strong> electron current<br />
flowing downward. The coupling is<br />
provided by <strong>the</strong>ir respective electric fields.<br />
As a result, both currents can be expected<br />
to fluctuate just like <strong>the</strong> p-hole and electron<br />
currents did in our laboratory experiments.<br />
Fluctuating currents are a source<br />
of low frequency electromagnetic (EM)<br />
radiation. Thus our model, simple as it may<br />
be, points to <strong>the</strong> possibility that <strong>the</strong> often<br />
reported pre-earthquake low frequency<br />
EM emissions arise from ground currents<br />
flowing deep in <strong>the</strong> Earth’s crust. The<br />
ground currents may be very powerful. For<br />
instance, taking <strong>the</strong> currents flowing out of<br />
<strong>the</strong> squeezed end of <strong>the</strong> granite slab in our<br />
experiment, we may ask what would be <strong>the</strong><br />
current flowing out of a cubic kilometer of<br />
granite or gabbro in <strong>the</strong> crust, all o<strong>the</strong>r conditions<br />
being <strong>the</strong> same. The answer is a surprisingly<br />
large value, somewhere between<br />
100,000 and 1,000,000 amperes. Since huge<br />
volumes of rocks – tens of thousands of<br />
cubic kilometers – come under increasing<br />
stress during <strong>the</strong> build-up of large earthquakes,<br />
<strong>the</strong> ground currents could indeed<br />
be enormous. Looking at it from a different<br />
perspective, we can say that, even if most<br />
of <strong>the</strong> currents generated in <strong>the</strong> ground<br />
are short-circuited or annihilated by o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
factors, those that remain might still reach<br />
impressively large values.<br />
Atmospheric Disturbances<br />
Ano<strong>the</strong>r result of stress-activated currents<br />
flowing in <strong>the</strong> ground would be that<br />
some p-holes will reach <strong>the</strong> surface of <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth. They would change <strong>the</strong> ground<br />
potential over large areas, making it more<br />
positive relative to <strong>the</strong> surrounding areas.<br />
This would have many consequences, of<br />
which I only want to mention one.<br />
Roughly 90 - 120 km above <strong>the</strong> Earth’s<br />
surface <strong>the</strong> ionosphere begins, which is<br />
composed of a highly dynamic plasma of<br />
electrons and ions generated under <strong>the</strong><br />
daily assault of extreme ultraviolet radiation<br />
from <strong>the</strong> Sun, solar wind bombardment,<br />
and cosmic rays. If <strong>the</strong> land surface<br />
below becomes increasingly positive, this<br />
plasma sheet will react. Maybe <strong>the</strong> source<br />
for <strong>the</strong> well-documented pre-earthquake<br />
ionospheric perturbations lies in <strong>the</strong><br />
activation of p-holes deep in <strong>the</strong> Earth’s<br />
crust and <strong>the</strong> mischief that <strong>the</strong>y play at <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth’s surface.<br />
In hindsight it is quite amazing to see<br />
how a line of basic research that, at its outset<br />
three decades ago, seemed to have no<br />
connection whatsoever to <strong>the</strong> origin of<br />
life and to earthquakes, has become a treasure<br />
trove of insights and discoveries. It is<br />
certainly too early to say that earthquake<br />
prediction is just around <strong>the</strong> corner. However,<br />
I feel confident that <strong>the</strong> discovery of<br />
p-holes in rocks and <strong>the</strong>ir activation by stress<br />
represents a crucial step toward cracking<br />
<strong>the</strong> code of <strong>the</strong> Earth’s multifaceted preearthquake<br />
signals.<br />
Figure B - Simple model of a large, rigid block of <strong>the</strong> Earth’s crust being pushed from<br />
<strong>the</strong> left and undergoing increasing levels of stress.<br />
Friedemann Freund<br />
Dr. Friedemann Freund<br />
Physicist, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Dr. Freund is associated <strong>with</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>, San Jose<br />
State University and NASA’s<br />
Goddard Space Flight Center.<br />
<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
Astrobiology<br />
Perseids<br />
© Wally Pacholka/ www.astropics.com<br />
Tune In!<br />
Are We Alone<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>’s<br />
Weekly Science<br />
Radio Program<br />
by Peter Jenniskens<br />
For as long as records exist, <strong>the</strong><br />
Perseid meteor showers have always<br />
been strong. This summer’s<br />
Perseid shower will be exceptional.<br />
The moon is mostly out of<br />
<strong>the</strong> way later in <strong>the</strong> night, and higher-thannormal<br />
activity rates are expected over <strong>the</strong><br />
United States.<br />
The Perseid shower’s parent body, comet<br />
109P/Swift-Tuttle, is notable in being a<br />
comparatively huge comet in an orbit that<br />
passes close to Earth’s orbit frequently. It<br />
measures 24 - 31 kilometers in diameter, 2<br />
to 3 times <strong>the</strong> size of comet Halley, and is so<br />
big that <strong>the</strong> continuous ejection of water vapor<br />
and dust during its approach to <strong>the</strong> Sun<br />
does not move <strong>the</strong> comet much off course.<br />
It has spewed dust for at least 5,000 years<br />
and most likely thirty times longer. It has<br />
built a massive meteoroid stream, most of<br />
which is located just outside of Earth’s orbit.<br />
Earth passes through <strong>the</strong> outer regions<br />
of that stream in July, and hits <strong>the</strong> center on<br />
August 12. At that time, <strong>the</strong> annual Perseid<br />
shower peaks at 80 meteors per hour under<br />
ideal circumstances (no clouds or moon,<br />
dark sky, stars of magnitude +6.5 just visible).<br />
When comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle was<br />
rediscovered in 1992, scientists noticed in<br />
alarm that a delay of 17 days in <strong>the</strong> next<br />
projected return of <strong>the</strong> comet in 2126 could<br />
cause it to collide <strong>with</strong> Earth. That fear dissipated<br />
when <strong>the</strong> orbit was recomputed<br />
using data from sightings in 188 A.D. and 69<br />
B.C. The more precise orbit has <strong>the</strong> comet<br />
approach Earth in 2126 to <strong>with</strong>in only 23<br />
million kilometers, but <strong>the</strong>re’s no danger of<br />
us being hit. In September 4479, <strong>the</strong> comet<br />
will approach Earth even closer, to <strong>with</strong>in<br />
about 6 million kilometers. It will <strong>the</strong>n be<br />
as bright as Jupiter (-2.1 magnitude) in<br />
<strong>the</strong> sky.<br />
The dust released will spread along <strong>the</strong><br />
comet orbit because some dust grains make<br />
wider orbits than o<strong>the</strong>rs and return later.<br />
When Earth encounters <strong>the</strong>se dust trails,<br />
a meteor storm may be observed. But only<br />
if <strong>the</strong> very narrow trail is steered smack in<br />
Earth’s path by perturbations of <strong>the</strong> planets.<br />
Most dust does wander far from <strong>the</strong> comet,<br />
which is why <strong>the</strong> best showers are observed<br />
in <strong>the</strong> years following when <strong>the</strong> comet returns,<br />
while lesser outbursts occur when<br />
dust fur<strong>the</strong>r along <strong>the</strong> comet orbit wanders<br />
into Earth’s path.<br />
The next big shower is not expected until<br />
<strong>the</strong> next return of <strong>the</strong> comet. For now,<br />
a nice outburst is projected for August 12,<br />
2005, at 08:18h UT (= 04:18 EDT and 01:18<br />
PDT), when Earth will encounter <strong>the</strong> dust<br />
ejected in <strong>the</strong> return of 1479. Rates can go<br />
up four fold to about 240 per hour on top of<br />
<strong>the</strong> 80 per hour annual activity, for a brief<br />
period of time (approximately 1.2 hours).<br />
In addition, rates may increase again<br />
around 13h UT, when Earth is slated to encounter<br />
<strong>the</strong> Filament component, rising to<br />
less than 86 per hour on top of normal, annual<br />
activity. That Filament is older dust<br />
presumably in mean-motion resonance<br />
<strong>with</strong> Jupiter.<br />
Dr. Peter Jenniskens<br />
Astronomer, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Dr. Jenniskens studies meteor<br />
showers in order to understand<br />
<strong>the</strong> origins of life on Earth.<br />
Listen to<br />
Are We Alone<br />
Hosted by Dr. Seth Shostak<br />
Live Sunday nights at 7pm PST<br />
(Check your local listings)<br />
or<br />
visit www.seti.org/radio<br />
for more information<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary
Astrobiology<br />
Artist’s concept of an asteroid striking<br />
near an inhabited region.<br />
© David A. Hardy/ www.astroart.org<br />
Planetary Defense in Space<br />
by Claudio Maccone<br />
Saving <strong>the</strong> Earth from collision<br />
<strong>with</strong> asteroids and comets is <strong>the</strong><br />
number one imperative for all<br />
those who care about <strong>the</strong> survival<br />
of humankind. Unfortunately, this<br />
deadly threat was not clearly perceived until<br />
1980, when <strong>the</strong> American Nobel laureate<br />
Louis Alvarez suggested that <strong>the</strong> dinosaurs<br />
were wiped out by <strong>the</strong> collision of a ~20 km<br />
asteroid about 65 million years ago.<br />
Ever since, a few scientists of good will<br />
have tried to convince <strong>the</strong>ir governments<br />
that something must be done (<strong>the</strong> set of all<br />
such actions is called “planetary defense”),<br />
but <strong>with</strong>out any significant success so far.<br />
Apart from <strong>the</strong> obvious lack of funding, <strong>the</strong><br />
problem of how to divert an asteroid threat<br />
is so difficult to tackle that even <strong>the</strong> scientists<br />
don’t know exactly what to do, let alone<br />
<strong>the</strong> managers of <strong>the</strong> national space agencies<br />
and <strong>the</strong> various military establishments.<br />
Also, movies like “Armageddon” and<br />
“Deep Impact” have dramatized <strong>the</strong> story,<br />
but <strong>the</strong> solutions <strong>the</strong>y portrayed are simply<br />
impossible because no Shuttle would be capable<br />
of reaching so far into space, and <strong>with</strong><br />
such short notice.<br />
In 2002, this author put forward a new<br />
idea: orchestrate planetary defense from<br />
outposts in space, ra<strong>the</strong>r than sit and wait<br />
on <strong>the</strong> Earth. This would give us at least<br />
a bit more time (days) to try to divert asteroids<br />
by shooting missiles against <strong>the</strong>m<br />
from two space bases, best located at <strong>the</strong><br />
Lagrangian points L1 and L3 of <strong>the</strong> Earth-<br />
Moon system. The author showed that:<br />
(1) This defense system would be ideal for<br />
deflecting small impactors, less than<br />
1 km in diameter. These are <strong>the</strong> most<br />
difficult ones to detect far in advance,<br />
and <strong>with</strong> sufficient orbital accuracy.<br />
(2) The deflection is achieved by pure<br />
lateral push (momentum transfer).<br />
No nuclear weapons in space would<br />
be needed. This is because <strong>the</strong> missiles<br />
are hitting <strong>the</strong> impactor at <strong>the</strong><br />
optimal angle of 90° from <strong>the</strong>ir arrival<br />
direction.<br />
(3) In case one missile was not enough to<br />
deflect <strong>the</strong> impactor off its collision<br />
trajectory, <strong>the</strong> new, slightly-deflected<br />
impactor can be hit at 90° by ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
missile. So, a sufficient number<br />
of missiles could be launched in a<br />
sequence from L1 and L3 to finally<br />
throw <strong>the</strong> impactor off its collision<br />
trajectory <strong>with</strong> Earth.<br />
The Five Earth-Moon<br />
Lagrangian Points<br />
In 1772, Joseph Louis Lagrange demonstrated<br />
that <strong>the</strong>re are five positions of zero<br />
gravity in a rotating two-body system, like<br />
<strong>the</strong> Moon around <strong>the</strong> Earth.<br />
Three are located on <strong>the</strong> line joining<br />
<strong>the</strong> two massive bodies, and are nowadays<br />
called “colinear points,” or L1, L2 and L3,<br />
as shown in Figure A. Two more points<br />
(L4 and L5) form equilateral triangles <strong>with</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> two massive bodies, and so are called<br />
“triangular points.” The distance to L1<br />
is about 32,300 km, and to L3 is roughly<br />
382,000 km.<br />
10<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
Figure A - The five Lagrangian points<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Earth-Moon system and <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
distances from Earth and Moon<br />
expressed in terms of R, <strong>the</strong> Earth-Moon<br />
distance (supposing <strong>the</strong> Moon’s orbit to<br />
be circular).<br />
Figure B - The two families of confocal<br />
ellipses and confocal hyperbolas.<br />
Trajectories for Best Deflection<br />
The best trajectories for deflecting impactors<br />
involve launching missiles from ei<strong>the</strong>r<br />
of two colinear Lagrangian points, L1<br />
and L3.<br />
Consider a family of ellipses and a family<br />
of hyperbolas that have all <strong>the</strong> same two<br />
foci, said to be “confocal.” The great property<br />
of confocal conics is that any pair of<br />
different confocal conics, namely one ellipse<br />
and one hyperbola, always intersect<br />
each o<strong>the</strong>r at angles of 90°.<br />
Consider one of <strong>the</strong> two foci, for example<br />
<strong>the</strong> one on <strong>the</strong> left. Imagine <strong>the</strong> Earth<br />
is situated <strong>the</strong>re. Then both <strong>the</strong> confocal ellipse<br />
and <strong>the</strong> confocal hyperbola are trajectories<br />
(paths) that moving bodies around<br />
<strong>the</strong> Earth follow naturally, because of Kepler’s<br />
First Law.<br />
Now imagine that a dangerous impactor<br />
arrives from infinity, namely from outside<br />
<strong>the</strong> gravitational sphere of influence<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Earth. So, it must follow a hyperbolic<br />
trajectory <strong>with</strong> respect to <strong>the</strong> Earth, <strong>with</strong><br />
Comet Wild 2 is about five kilometers<br />
(3.1 miles) in diameter.<br />
<strong>the</strong> focus of this hyperbola located just at<br />
<strong>the</strong> center of <strong>the</strong> Earth.<br />
The ellipse confocal to <strong>the</strong> impactor’s<br />
hyperbola is <strong>the</strong> path of a missile launched<br />
against <strong>the</strong> incoming impactor from any<br />
point in space, but better from <strong>the</strong> two colinear<br />
Lagrangian points L1 and L3, each<br />
located on one side of <strong>the</strong> Earth for defense<br />
on both sides. The selection of <strong>the</strong> colinear<br />
Lagrangian points L1 and L3 as space bases<br />
for missiles is now self-evident: <strong>the</strong>y ensure<br />
<strong>the</strong> cylindrical symmetry of <strong>the</strong> problem<br />
around <strong>the</strong> Earth-Moon axis. So, <strong>the</strong> direction<br />
in space from which <strong>the</strong> impactor is<br />
arriving becomes irrelevant: we will just<br />
be studying confocal orbits in <strong>the</strong> Earth-<br />
Moon-asteroid plane.<br />
Being confocal, <strong>the</strong> missile’s ellipse is<br />
automatically orthogonal to <strong>the</strong> impactor’s<br />
hyperbola, meaning that <strong>the</strong> collision of<br />
<strong>the</strong> missile <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> impactors always occurs<br />
at a right angle <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> impactor’s<br />
path. This is really <strong>the</strong> best we can hope for,<br />
since <strong>the</strong> missile’s full momentum is <strong>the</strong>n<br />
transferred to <strong>the</strong> impactor sidewise.<br />
Finally, if one missile fails to sufficiently<br />
deflect <strong>the</strong> impactor, we can always send<br />
additional missiles along <strong>the</strong> new ellipse<br />
that is confocal to <strong>the</strong> new and slightly deflected<br />
impactor’s hyperbolic path. Once<br />
again, <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>the</strong>matical representation of<br />
<strong>the</strong> trajectories matches perfectly <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
physical problem of diverting impactors.<br />
Ellipses for Missiles Shot from<br />
L1 and L3<br />
NASA/JPL-Caltech/NOAO<br />
Figure C (which is not to scale) shows<br />
an example: <strong>the</strong> incoming impactor is<br />
missing <strong>the</strong> Earth (represented by <strong>the</strong><br />
larger circle located at <strong>the</strong> origin), but is<br />
of course deflected along an hyperbola. A<br />
missile shot from <strong>the</strong> Lagrangian point L3<br />
(<strong>the</strong> smaller circle on <strong>the</strong> left) can hit <strong>the</strong><br />
impactor before it approaches <strong>the</strong> Earth,<br />
colliding <strong>with</strong> it at an orthogonal angle. In<br />
Figure D is shown an actual impact trajectory.<br />
But a missile shot from <strong>the</strong> Lagrangian<br />
point L3 along <strong>the</strong> shown ellipse, confocal<br />
to <strong>the</strong> impactor’s hyperbola, could<br />
rescue humankind. Similar considerations<br />
apply to missiles shot from L1.<br />
Political Problems and <strong>the</strong> Lagrangian<br />
Points<br />
The Cold War ended about ten years<br />
ago, but many people still have Cold War<br />
attitudes. Since nuclear weapons in space<br />
are forbidden by international treaties, a<br />
proposal to locate missiles <strong>with</strong> possible<br />
nuclear warheads at <strong>the</strong> Lagrangian points<br />
Figure C - Impactor missing <strong>the</strong> Earth,<br />
and elliptical path of <strong>the</strong> missile shot at<br />
it from L3. The orthogonality of <strong>the</strong> two<br />
paths at <strong>the</strong>ir collision point is evident.<br />
Figure D - Impactor hitting <strong>the</strong> Earth.<br />
Before it reaches <strong>the</strong> Earth, it could be<br />
diverted by <strong>the</strong> collision of a missile<br />
shot from L3 along <strong>the</strong> shown ellipse,<br />
orthogonal to <strong>the</strong> impactor’s path to<br />
achieve maximum deflection.<br />
L1 and L3 would immediately be perceived<br />
as an attempt to revive <strong>the</strong> Cold<br />
War.<br />
see PLANETARY, pg. 13<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary 11
Astrobiology<br />
Artist’s Concept of Deep Impact’s<br />
Encounter <strong>with</strong> Comet Tempel 1<br />
NASA/JPL/UMD<br />
Reacting to Disaster<br />
by Douglas Vakoch<br />
The scenario is familiar from Hollywood blockbusters<br />
like Armageddon and Deep Impact. A massive asteroid<br />
– perhaps ten miles in diameter – is headed straight<br />
for Earth. An all-out effort to deflect it is mounted. If<br />
<strong>the</strong> mission succeeds, civilization as we know it will<br />
continue.<br />
But if natural human reactions to threats interfere, <strong>the</strong> ending<br />
could be far from uplifting. If fear and denial postpone an adequate<br />
response, dust and debris could make <strong>the</strong> daytime sky look like<br />
night, <strong>the</strong> Earth’s surface could be razed by a global firestorm, and<br />
tsunamis could obliterate coastal cities.<br />
In <strong>the</strong>ory, threats from space may be detected far in advance<br />
of <strong>the</strong>ir arrival, giving plenty of time to deflect <strong>the</strong>m (see pages<br />
10 - 11) or at least prepare for <strong>the</strong> aftermath. But that’s in <strong>the</strong>ory.<br />
“What we may actually get,” says psychologist Albert Harrison, “is<br />
an obsessive focus on a very constricted range of options, a refusal<br />
to consider or integrate new data, defensiveness that prevents decision<br />
makers from appreciating threats and developing alternatives,<br />
and panicky, ineffective last-minute choices.”<br />
The result would be devastating. “In some respects,” Harrison<br />
suggests, “post-impact Earth may resemble an off-world destination:<br />
a dangerous place bombarded <strong>with</strong> harmful forms of radiation,<br />
a toxic atmosphere, and little or no useful vegetation.” If some<br />
part of humanity survives, its future may be bleak. In <strong>the</strong> case of<br />
extreme destruction,<br />
Harrison says, “hopes<br />
generated by looking<br />
forward to emerging<br />
from shelter will be overpowered<br />
by <strong>the</strong> realities<br />
of living on a dead and<br />
barren planet.”<br />
The Human<br />
Response<br />
As a social psychologist<br />
at <strong>the</strong> University of<br />
California at Davis,<br />
Harrison has long<br />
contemplated <strong>the</strong> impact<br />
of space, ranging from longduration<br />
spaceflights to<br />
<strong>the</strong> societal implications of<br />
12<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
detecting life beyond Earth. His emphasis<br />
is squarely on <strong>the</strong> human factor, as is<br />
evident from <strong>the</strong> subtitles of several of his<br />
books, including Spacefaring:<br />
The Human Dimension and After Contact:<br />
The Human Response to Extraterrestrial<br />
Life. Recently, Harrison has turned his attention<br />
to a different sort of impact from<br />
space: <strong>the</strong> threat of a massive Near Earth<br />
Object (NEO) that could wipe out civilization<br />
as we know it. “If volcanic activity or<br />
a NEO strike were sufficiently energetic to<br />
produce <strong>the</strong> equivalent of a nuclear winter,”<br />
Harrison says, “<strong>the</strong>re would be no<br />
speedy return to normal.”<br />
At some level, we can anticipate life in a<br />
post-impact world by looking at o<strong>the</strong>r natural<br />
disasters. But <strong>the</strong> scale of destruction<br />
makes many comparisons irrelevant. We<br />
might expect to see heroic acts of altruism<br />
and charity following such a catastrophe,<br />
for example, but <strong>the</strong> magnitude of <strong>the</strong> devastation<br />
may limit <strong>the</strong> role that good intentions<br />
can play. “Following a major NEO<br />
impact,” Harrison explains, “<strong>the</strong>re may be<br />
no rich people to aid <strong>the</strong> poor.”<br />
But given our natural ways of coping<br />
<strong>with</strong> disasters, fear and denial may be <strong>the</strong><br />
critical factors that threaten humanity’s<br />
very survival. Learning of an impending<br />
NEO impact might well lead to responses<br />
akin to those observed by psychiatric<br />
social worker Terrance O’Connor when<br />
people face environmental problems – or<br />
refuse to face <strong>the</strong>m. “Avoidance reactions<br />
are common,” he notes. “Most boil down<br />
to ‘I don’t want to hear about it,’ or<br />
‘It’s not my responsibility.’ Some<br />
people convince <strong>the</strong>mselves<br />
that ‘it’s not happening.’”<br />
Clinical psychologist Sarah<br />
Conn describes a similar<br />
reaction to threats. “We feel<br />
ei<strong>the</strong>r overwhelmed by or<br />
removed from what we<br />
learned about environmental<br />
deterioration,”<br />
she suggests. “We become<br />
helpless or indifferent in<br />
<strong>the</strong> face of it, and unable<br />
to respond except <strong>with</strong><br />
numbness and denial.”<br />
In <strong>the</strong> face of<br />
an impending NEO<br />
impact, similar denial<br />
may have irreversible<br />
consequences.<br />
Strategies for Survival<br />
What <strong>the</strong>n should we do if danger is<br />
upon us The key, Harrison notes, is to<br />
remain open to new information that<br />
pours in during <strong>the</strong> weeks, months, and<br />
years following <strong>the</strong> first detection of a<br />
menacing NEO.<br />
Such openness will be difficult to maintain<br />
in tense and ambiguous times. In spite<br />
of our natural tendency to choose quickly<br />
one plan of defense and stay <strong>with</strong> it, it will<br />
be critical to evaluate alternative strategies<br />
as updated information is received.<br />
At each step of <strong>the</strong> way, if we can<br />
anticipate our automatic responses, we<br />
can beware of <strong>the</strong>ir potential problems.<br />
For example, a natural tendency will be to<br />
focus on <strong>the</strong> view of <strong>the</strong> majority, excluding<br />
alternative solutions. And yet, innovative<br />
approaches that take into account<br />
new data or different perspectives may be<br />
<strong>the</strong> key to survival. But what, practically,<br />
can we do to promote more productive responses<br />
First, we need to be aware of our<br />
tendency to latch quickly onto one answer,<br />
even when subsequent information calls it<br />
into question. To guard against such uncritical<br />
acceptance of one position, some<br />
key decision makers may be selected to<br />
play <strong>the</strong> role of devil’s advocate. By sanctioning<br />
<strong>the</strong> role of dissident, unpopular<br />
but potentially vital alternatives can be<br />
explored, providing one safeguard against<br />
monolithic “groupthink.”<br />
“Of course <strong>the</strong> ultimate protection for<br />
our race,” suggests Harrison, “is dispersal<br />
beyond our home planet.” In tandem<br />
<strong>with</strong> preparations to protect <strong>the</strong> welfare<br />
of Earth-bound people, colonies might<br />
also be established on o<strong>the</strong>r planets. “Dispersal<br />
throughout <strong>the</strong> solar system will<br />
not necessarily protect us from all risks,”<br />
he acknowledges, “but we would be far<br />
better protected from extinction than we<br />
are right now.”<br />
Dr. Douglas Vakoch<br />
Director of Interstellar<br />
Message Composition<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Dr. Vakoch is a clinical<br />
psychologist who serves on<br />
<strong>the</strong> International Academy of<br />
Astronautics’ Study Group on<br />
Earth-threatening Asteroids<br />
and Comets.<br />
PLANETARY, continued from pg. 11<br />
So, it is realistic to take for granted<br />
that any such proposal, if put forward officially<br />
to any country’s political institutions,<br />
would immediately be rejected by<br />
politicians as well as by <strong>the</strong> public at large.<br />
Just think of all <strong>the</strong> problems that NASA<br />
and ESA are having <strong>with</strong> ecologists simply<br />
in order to put Radioactive Thermal Generators<br />
(RTGs) aboard <strong>the</strong>ir spacecraft.<br />
Ecologists against RTGs actually support a<br />
narrow-minded view of ecology, based on<br />
<strong>the</strong> oversimplified belief that whatever is<br />
“nuclear” is “dangerous.” This is <strong>the</strong> heritage<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Cold War and of all wars that<br />
went before it.<br />
The threat of impactors creating havoc<br />
on <strong>the</strong> Earth’s surface is real, as was well<br />
proven by <strong>the</strong> Tunguska event of 1908.<br />
However (and fortunately!) <strong>the</strong> Tunguska<br />
disaster took place in a lonely forest of Siberia,<br />
and so <strong>the</strong>re were no casualties. In<br />
addition, back in 1908 not even <strong>the</strong> scientific<br />
community was ready to accept that<br />
such an disaster could possibly occur, not<br />
to mention that governments and lay people<br />
were not ready at all to learn <strong>the</strong> Tunguska<br />
lesson. So, everything went on just<br />
as if nothing had happened at Tunguska,<br />
until <strong>the</strong> first scientists took some notice<br />
in 1927.<br />
All this shows well that humankind still<br />
is not yet ready to face <strong>the</strong> threat of impactors<br />
and comets. Only when humans stop<br />
planning and conducting big wars among<br />
<strong>the</strong>mselves will governments have more<br />
time to think about new dangers coming<br />
from space. And ecologists will mature to<br />
<strong>the</strong> point of not hampering <strong>the</strong>ir governmental<br />
agencies in putting up missiles and<br />
weapons in space if <strong>the</strong>se will prevent dangerous<br />
asteroids and comets from obliterating<br />
humankind, including <strong>the</strong> ecologists<br />
<strong>the</strong>mselves.<br />
In conclusion, this new consciousness<br />
about a danger that affects <strong>the</strong> whole of<br />
humankind will sooner or later surface for<br />
<strong>the</strong> vast majority of people, and prepare<br />
<strong>the</strong>m for <strong>the</strong> challenges of a new millennium.<br />
Dr. Claudio Maccone<br />
Ma<strong>the</strong>matician<br />
Dr. Maccone is a member of<br />
<strong>the</strong> International Academy<br />
of Astronautics, as well as<br />
an active member of its <strong>SETI</strong><br />
Permanent Study Group. He<br />
lives in Torino, Italy.<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary 13
Astrobiology<br />
Cosmic Catastrophe and<br />
Armageddon<br />
by Mark Brake and Martin Griffiths<br />
Modern science has known<br />
for some time that Earth<br />
is continually bombarded<br />
by a celestial rain of<br />
cosmic debris. Much of<br />
it is ei<strong>the</strong>r fine dust, or larger objects that<br />
mostly burn up in <strong>the</strong> atmosphere, and<br />
are of little consequence to <strong>the</strong> terrestrial<br />
environment. But occasionally, larger<br />
objects survive <strong>the</strong> journey through <strong>the</strong><br />
atmosphere, finding <strong>the</strong>ir way to <strong>the</strong> ground<br />
where <strong>the</strong>y are known as meteorites.<br />
Giant asteroids and comets<br />
pose a threat to <strong>the</strong> entire<br />
planet; one that is now<br />
being taken very seriously<br />
due to apocalyptic evidence<br />
from <strong>the</strong> fossil record.<br />
Every couple of years such meteorites cause<br />
damage: <strong>the</strong>y punch holes in houses, or<br />
take <strong>the</strong> wing off a car in Queens, New<br />
York. Well not merely a particular car in<br />
Queens of course; this is just one instance<br />
of <strong>the</strong> many reported! Meteorites have also<br />
been known to brain <strong>the</strong> odd dog; in 1911<br />
near <strong>the</strong> town of Nakhla, Egypt a Martian<br />
meteorite caused <strong>the</strong> only known case of a<br />
canine fatality due to a cosmic object.<br />
Such events are newsworthy only<br />
because of <strong>the</strong>ir esoteric rarity. Yet what is<br />
disturbing about this cosmic rain is that <strong>the</strong><br />
distribution of this meteoritic material has<br />
no large-size cut-off, and, unlike o<strong>the</strong>r terrestrial<br />
natural hazards, a collision <strong>with</strong> a<br />
large object from space may have extreme<br />
consequences for our planet. Estimates<br />
indicate that every few 100,000 years or<br />
so, impactors such as comets or asteroids<br />
more than a mile in diameter strike Earth<br />
<strong>with</strong> serious global environmental consequences.<br />
Research also shows that every 100<br />
million years or so, a cosmic impactor 5 to<br />
10 miles across strikes, <strong>with</strong> consequences<br />
so terrible that most species are threatened<br />
<strong>with</strong> extinction. It is plausible that an even<br />
larger object, perhaps 25 miles across or<br />
Artist’s concept of a meteor shower in<br />
prehistoric times.<br />
© David A. Hardy/ www.astroart.org<br />
more, will strike <strong>the</strong> Earth during our Sun’s<br />
lifetime <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> possibility of sterilizing<br />
<strong>the</strong> surface of our planet.<br />
This astronomical discovery has generated<br />
a ra<strong>the</strong>r belated, though none<strong>the</strong>less<br />
welcome, program called Spacewatch that<br />
attempts to give prior warning of any impactors<br />
that come <strong>with</strong>in striking distance<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Earth. The destructive scenario envisioned<br />
from such impactors has given<br />
a more contemporarily relevant ring to<br />
<strong>the</strong> words apocalypse and Armageddon.<br />
The projected cosmic catastrophe is of<br />
biblical proportions, and differs from all<br />
o<strong>the</strong>r natural hazards in two ways:<br />
4 <strong>the</strong> potential consequences of a<br />
major impact exceed any o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
known natural or man-made<br />
hazard (including nuclear war);<br />
4 <strong>the</strong> probability of a major<br />
impact occurring in a politically<br />
relevant time scale (say, during<br />
our lifetimes) is extremely low,<br />
but not outside <strong>the</strong> bounds of<br />
possibility.<br />
14<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
The impact hazard is, <strong>the</strong>refore, a terrifying<br />
prospect that remains <strong>the</strong> ultimate<br />
high-consequence, low-probability hazard<br />
that could lead to Armageddon. However,<br />
trying to predict such a catastrophe is not<br />
easy, and predictions incur various associated<br />
risks. According to astronomers at<br />
Spacewatch:<br />
“... this peril is evolving from one that was<br />
almost unknown two decades ago (hence a<br />
serious impact would certainly not have been<br />
predicted) to one in which 75% of <strong>the</strong> risk<br />
could, <strong>with</strong>in two more decades, be predicted<br />
so exactly that mitigation measures <strong>with</strong>in<br />
our technological capability could be applied<br />
<strong>with</strong> a high degree of effectiveness. For <strong>the</strong><br />
remaining 25%, <strong>the</strong> prediction would<br />
ei<strong>the</strong>r be too late to mount more than partial<br />
countermeasures or <strong>the</strong>re might be a wholly<br />
unforecast ‘act of God’ if a comet were suddenly<br />
to appear from <strong>the</strong> direction of <strong>the</strong> Sun,<br />
<strong>the</strong>refore rendering it invisible to all observational<br />
techniques here on Earth.”<br />
(History of <strong>the</strong> Asteroid/Comet Impact<br />
Hazard, Clark R. Chapman, 1998)<br />
Predicting Armageddon is more than<br />
producing an array of facts and figures;<br />
it involves genuine concern based upon<br />
evidence of recent impacts. Although<br />
astronomers and insurance underwriters<br />
use <strong>the</strong> term “act of God,” a catastrophe<br />
of this type is simply a hazard of living in<br />
a planetary system. A number of impacts<br />
are known to have occurred in <strong>the</strong> last<br />
century. The first impact was in Siberia, at<br />
a place known as Tunguska in June, 1908.<br />
The second was in Brazil in 1930. Thankfully,<br />
both areas are unpopulated, and not<br />
a single human being was killed. But <strong>the</strong><br />
consequences could have been very different,<br />
and <strong>the</strong> threat brought to <strong>the</strong> world’s<br />
attention sooner, if <strong>the</strong>se impactors had demolished<br />
a city or town.<br />
Now that <strong>the</strong> threat of NEOs (Near Earth<br />
Objects) is out in <strong>the</strong> open, greater attention<br />
is being paid to astronomical programs<br />
that search for <strong>the</strong>se threats from space.<br />
Astronomers are able to counter <strong>the</strong> content<br />
of o<strong>the</strong>rwise startling media reports,<br />
such as <strong>the</strong> one proclaiming a forthcoming<br />
“near-miss” of Earth by a mile-wide asteroid,<br />
predicted for <strong>the</strong> year 2028 <strong>with</strong> initial<br />
reports suggesting a serious possibility of<br />
actual impact. This generated front-page<br />
news in March 1998. Since <strong>the</strong>se headlines<br />
appeared, two major blockbuster science<br />
fiction films, Deep Impact and Armageddon,<br />
released in <strong>the</strong> summer of 1998, helped<br />
raise <strong>the</strong> profile of this type of threat, particularly<br />
among politicians and populace.<br />
Spacewatch is now a relatively major<br />
player in impact detection. Although at<br />
present our telescope technology could<br />
provide precise predictions about where<br />
a potential impactor is in space, <strong>the</strong>y<br />
cannot tell us where on Earth such an<br />
impact might occur. There are also uncertainties<br />
regarding such forecasting, almost<br />
akin to <strong>the</strong> uncertainties of forecasting<br />
events such as hurricanes and tornados,<br />
global warming, <strong>the</strong> ozone hole, and El<br />
Nino – we cannot predict results in advance,<br />
and all we are left <strong>with</strong> are models<br />
of worst-case scenarios. Global warming<br />
and <strong>the</strong> destruction of <strong>the</strong> ozone layer<br />
are ‘invisible’ problems in <strong>the</strong> sense that<br />
people are unaware of <strong>the</strong>ir stealthy effect<br />
on our environment; <strong>the</strong> detection of an<br />
asteroid and its subsequent impact will be<br />
a highly ‘visible’ problem which will raise<br />
questions about how individuals, society,<br />
and political institutions prepare for, and<br />
conceivably respond to, predictions of such<br />
a horrific, but unlikely disaster.<br />
Never<strong>the</strong>less, astronomers dare not<br />
appear to be like Aesop’s “boy who cried<br />
wolf” by playing on fears and making banner<br />
headlines whenever an object passes<br />
close by, but far enough away to cause no<br />
harm. To do so would mean a loss of credibility<br />
in an arena in which <strong>the</strong>y conceivably<br />
might someday have to forecast an event<br />
that would deserve to be taken seriously at<br />
<strong>the</strong> highest public and governmental levels.<br />
Getting out of <strong>the</strong> way<br />
What could be done about an impending<br />
impact According to David Morrison<br />
of <strong>the</strong> NASA Ames Research Center, once<br />
we know that an impending impact event<br />
is likely, we might attempt to deflect <strong>the</strong><br />
impactor from its collision course <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth. This could be achieved <strong>with</strong> a highyield<br />
nuclear weapon, which could deflect<br />
<strong>the</strong> impactor slightly from its trajectory if<br />
<strong>the</strong> weapon is delivered in plenty of time,<br />
months or years before <strong>the</strong> impact event. At<br />
present <strong>the</strong>re is no rocket vehicle capable of<br />
lifting a high yield warhead into deep space,<br />
and one is unlikely to be developed due to<br />
<strong>the</strong> high cost factor in <strong>the</strong> face of such a low<br />
risk event.<br />
The alternative approach to this threat<br />
would involve destroying <strong>the</strong> potential impactor<br />
completely. Depending on <strong>the</strong> size of<br />
<strong>the</strong> incoming object, a high-yield warhead<br />
may be able to accomplish this goal. The<br />
problem of delivery and synchronization of<br />
<strong>the</strong> explosions have yet to be overcome, and<br />
few scientists are worried enough to provide<br />
alternate solutions.<br />
Giant asteroids and comets pose a threat<br />
to <strong>the</strong> entire planet; one that is now being<br />
taken very seriously due to apocalyptic evidence<br />
from <strong>the</strong> fossil record. It is believed<br />
than an impactor approximately 6 miles in<br />
diameter impacting <strong>the</strong> Earth was a contributory<br />
factor in <strong>the</strong> extinction of <strong>the</strong><br />
dinosaurs some 65 million years ago. The<br />
primary evidence, discovered by <strong>the</strong> late<br />
physicist Luis Alvarez and his son Walter, a<br />
geologist, is a layer of <strong>the</strong> element iridium<br />
laid down in sedimentary rock in Gubbio,<br />
Italy, at about <strong>the</strong> time <strong>the</strong> giant reptiles<br />
disappeared. Iridium is rare on <strong>the</strong> Earth’s<br />
surface but far more common in asteroids.<br />
If an enormous chunk of space rock hit<br />
<strong>the</strong> planet, <strong>the</strong> Alvarez team <strong>the</strong>orized, it<br />
would have largely disintegrated, casting a<br />
pall of iridium‐rich dust and o<strong>the</strong>r debris<br />
over <strong>the</strong> world that could have lasted for<br />
months. Deprived of sunlight by this natural<br />
version of nuclear winter, plants, and<br />
<strong>the</strong> animals that fed on <strong>the</strong>m, would have<br />
died in significant numbers. And when <strong>the</strong><br />
dust finally settled, <strong>the</strong> iridium it contained<br />
would have formed just such a layer as <strong>the</strong><br />
Alvarez team found.<br />
Smoking Gun<br />
Since publishing <strong>the</strong>ir findings in 1980, a<br />
host of geologists, paleontologists, astronomers,<br />
and physicists have looked for fur<strong>the</strong>r<br />
evidence, including a crater of similar age to<br />
<strong>the</strong> dinosaur extinction which could be <strong>the</strong><br />
‘smoking gun’ of such an impact. The crater<br />
was eventually discovered by Glen Penfield,<br />
a geologist working for PEMEX, <strong>the</strong> Mexican<br />
oil company that was drilling in <strong>the</strong><br />
Yucatan peninsula. What Penfield uncovered<br />
was a large, 65 million year old crater,<br />
120 miles in diameter. Known today as <strong>the</strong><br />
Chicxulub Crater, Penfield uncovered this<br />
ancient impact site using instruments that<br />
sense gravitational and magnetic anomalies.<br />
An in-depth study of various geological<br />
features throughout <strong>the</strong> western hemisphere<br />
has revealed <strong>the</strong> dreadful details of<br />
<strong>the</strong> impact. The force of <strong>the</strong> collision initially<br />
sprayed molten rock and debris worldwide,<br />
which re-entered <strong>the</strong> atmosphere and<br />
heated it to 500 – 900 F, killing off most animal<br />
life <strong>with</strong>in a matter of hours or days.<br />
Plant life and smaller creatures who may<br />
have survived <strong>the</strong> initial impact were killed<br />
as vaporized minerals thrown into <strong>the</strong> upper<br />
atmosphere took months or years to<br />
settle, creating a permanent ‘winter’ which<br />
plunged <strong>the</strong> ecosystem into a freeze from<br />
which few species emerged. The dinosaurs<br />
never stood a chance.<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary 15
Board Profile<br />
Most astronomers downplay <strong>the</strong> threat<br />
of such events, and statistically <strong>the</strong>y are<br />
correct to do so. According to David Morrison,<br />
we have a 1 in 20,000 chance of such<br />
an impact event happening <strong>with</strong>in our<br />
lifetime, and as our technological capability<br />
to discover and deal <strong>with</strong> such threats<br />
grows, so do our chances of avoiding this<br />
kind of apocalypse. However, <strong>the</strong> current<br />
scientific debate about protecting <strong>the</strong> Earth<br />
from such impacts is essentially <strong>the</strong> latest<br />
chapter in <strong>the</strong> long and violent history of<br />
our planet. Morrison recommends that we<br />
simply get on <strong>with</strong> our everyday lives <strong>with</strong> a<br />
fateful acceptance of <strong>the</strong> facts.<br />
Conclusion<br />
We have to accept <strong>the</strong> apocalyptic nature<br />
of some events that have happened to Earth<br />
in <strong>the</strong> past, and may threaten us again in<br />
<strong>the</strong> future. As this threat is perceived, man<br />
stands at a crossroads in his evolution.<br />
For <strong>the</strong> first time in history, a species has<br />
emerged on this planet that has a technological<br />
capability that could defer this menace,<br />
and even obliterate it from our collective<br />
consciousness. If this is so, <strong>the</strong>n Earth<br />
will continue along its path of life’s history,<br />
and perhaps apocalypse will come through<br />
measures that are unforeseeable as human<br />
evolution continues. However, such a form<br />
of apocalypse will hardly be catastrophic,<br />
but will result from minute changes over<br />
long periods of time.<br />
Whatever <strong>the</strong> case, apocalypse and catastrophism<br />
in <strong>the</strong>ir various forms will always<br />
be a part of cosmological and astronomical<br />
study because <strong>the</strong>y generate wonder about<br />
<strong>the</strong> universal home we inhabit. In <strong>the</strong> final<br />
analysis, we continue to be inspired and<br />
awed by <strong>the</strong> physical processes that make<br />
up our universe, and we realize, despite our<br />
imposed self-importance, that we are just a<br />
very small part of a cosmos that interacts<br />
<strong>with</strong> humanity in ways that <strong>the</strong> ancients<br />
could never foresee.<br />
Mark Brake and Martin Griffiths<br />
University of Glamorgan<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Mark Brake and Martin<br />
Griffiths are members of<br />
NASA’s Astrobiology Science<br />
Communication Group at <strong>the</strong><br />
Centre for Astronomy and<br />
Science Education, University of<br />
Glamorgan, United Kingdom.<br />
This article originally appeared<br />
in proceedings from <strong>the</strong><br />
“Apocalypse 2000” conference.<br />
<strong>Inside</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Boardroom</strong> <strong>with</strong><br />
<strong>Alan</strong> <strong>Bagley</strong><br />
Seth Shostak<br />
The successful stewardship of <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> depends upon<br />
its Board of Trustees, which<br />
counts among its 17 members<br />
two Nobel Prize winners,<br />
four members of <strong>the</strong> National Academy of<br />
Sciences, one member of <strong>the</strong> National<br />
Academy of Engineering, and several current<br />
and former Fortune 500 business<br />
executives. This series profiles our Board<br />
members and gives insight as to why such<br />
important people have chosen to be part of<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>.<br />
When did you become aware of<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>’s work, and what<br />
initially intrigued you<br />
Sometime around 1965, Barney Oliver,<br />
Director of Research at Hewlett-Packard<br />
Company, attended a meeting where Frank<br />
Drake brought forth his now-famous equation<br />
and used it as an agenda for a scientific<br />
symposium. Barney told us at HP about<br />
that meeting. He was greatly impressed by<br />
<strong>the</strong> logic in <strong>the</strong> equation and <strong>the</strong> caliber of<br />
scientists <strong>the</strong>re to discuss <strong>the</strong> probability of<br />
life in outer space. His interest in <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong><br />
concept grew. Before long he had shown us<br />
<strong>the</strong> advantages of using a large radio-telescope<br />
array in <strong>the</strong> search for intelligent life.<br />
At one point, when <strong>the</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> was<br />
receiving NASA funds, I was one of <strong>the</strong><br />
people Barney invited to attend a three-day<br />
review of scientific progress at <strong>the</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>.<br />
I think <strong>the</strong> comments of our review committee<br />
were useful in confirming a certain<br />
bureaucratic sickness that had crept in.<br />
That problem was properly medicated. In<br />
that review process, I became more aware<br />
of <strong>the</strong> excellent scientific and engineering<br />
talent engaged in <strong>the</strong> search. Later, when<br />
asked to take a place on <strong>the</strong> Board, I was<br />
delighted to accept.<br />
What area of research most intrigues<br />
you<br />
I am intrigued by <strong>the</strong> broad research being<br />
carried on at LITU (Life in <strong>the</strong> Universe),<br />
in <strong>the</strong> search for any possible cosmic life<br />
forms.<br />
What do you see as <strong>the</strong> greatest<br />
challenges for <strong>the</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
The <strong>Institute</strong> has difficulty in obtaining sufficient<br />
funding to carry on its programs. As<br />
we face that challenge, we must be sure to<br />
maintain absolute scientific honesty in any<br />
promotions used for funding as well as in<br />
all of our public relations efforts.<br />
What do your friends say when you<br />
tell <strong>the</strong>m you’re involved <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Some of my friends are a bit skeptical regarding<br />
<strong>the</strong> odds against our getting any<br />
“return on investment.” I like to point out<br />
that discoveries in astronomy are slowly<br />
but steadily improving those odds. Also, it<br />
is worth noting that <strong>the</strong> world is better today<br />
because of risk-takers. Among some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> more successful in that regard are Dave<br />
Packard, Bill Hewlett, Gordon Moore, Barney<br />
Oliver and Paul Allen, all of whom have<br />
placed <strong>the</strong>ir bets on <strong>SETI</strong>. To bet against<br />
<strong>the</strong>m would seem unwise.<br />
<strong>Alan</strong> <strong>Bagley</strong><br />
Board of Trustees, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Mr. <strong>Bagley</strong> spent 37 years as<br />
a Hewlett Packard Executive<br />
including general manager. He<br />
is <strong>the</strong> founder of <strong>the</strong> Los Altos<br />
Community Foundation.<br />
16<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
COSMIC NEWS<br />
NASA/JPL-Caltech/NOAO<br />
In April, <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> hosted an exhibit<br />
and sale of Chinese brush and finger<br />
paintings by artist and <strong>Institute</strong> supporter<br />
Inger Friis. Mrs. Friis donated proceeds<br />
from <strong>the</strong> art sales to a scholarship for<br />
summer interns at <strong>the</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>. Born in<br />
New York in 1910 to Danish parents, Friis<br />
began painting very early in life, and has<br />
received numerous awards for her artwork,<br />
which has been displayed in museums<br />
from New Jersey to Taiwan.<br />
Jill Tarter attended <strong>the</strong> Time100 Bash in<br />
NYC April 19 to receive her award as one<br />
of Time Magazine’s 100 most “influential<br />
and powerful people” of 2004. As mentioned<br />
in a previous issue of Explorer, Dr.<br />
Tarter was chosen in <strong>the</strong> “Scientist and<br />
Thinker” category for her leadership role<br />
in <strong>the</strong> scientific search for evidence of life<br />
on o<strong>the</strong>r worlds, and for her efforts to<br />
promote scientific literacy among youth,<br />
particularly girls and young women.<br />
May was a busy time for <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
scientists. Jon Jenkins spoke at UCLA on<br />
May 13. Nathalie Cabrol reported on <strong>the</strong><br />
progress of <strong>the</strong> Mars Exploration Rovers<br />
at Foothill College as part of <strong>the</strong> Silicon<br />
Valley Astronomy Lecture Series. On May<br />
19 Seth Shostak was <strong>the</strong> featured scientist<br />
for Ask a Scientist, a free lecture series held<br />
each month at a café in San Francisco.<br />
Jill Tarter spoke at <strong>the</strong> CEN meeting in<br />
Seattle on <strong>the</strong> 25. Ken Souza was part of a<br />
panel discussion at <strong>the</strong> International Satellite<br />
Convention on May 31.<br />
On May 14 <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> held our<br />
second annual Science Day event. A<br />
day of lectures featuring scientists and<br />
educators from The Center for <strong>the</strong> Study<br />
of Life in <strong>the</strong> Universe, The Center<br />
for <strong>SETI</strong> Research, and Education and<br />
Public Outreach, as well as several guest<br />
speakers. Over 300 guests attended <strong>the</strong><br />
event, held at NASA Ames Research Center<br />
in Mountain View, California. Become<br />
a member of Team<strong>SETI</strong> to receive invitations<br />
to events like this, and more!<br />
The Luncheon Society of San Francisco<br />
welcomed Jill Tarter as <strong>the</strong>ir speaker on<br />
June 11. Peter Backus was <strong>the</strong> featured<br />
speaker at <strong>the</strong> IEEE EMC Society meeting<br />
in Michigan on June 15.<br />
On June 16, Seth Shostak was a distinguished<br />
lecturer at <strong>the</strong> AIAA meeting in<br />
Houston, and spoke at <strong>the</strong> Salado <strong>Institute</strong><br />
later that week. Douglas Vakoch was<br />
a panelist(via videolink) at <strong>the</strong> Dana Center<br />
in London. On June 19 he presented<br />
his research at <strong>the</strong> Society for Interpersonal<br />
Theory and Research conference in<br />
Montreal, Canada.<br />
On June 22, Principal Investigator Jon<br />
Jenkins spoke at <strong>the</strong> NASA Explorer<br />
Schools (NES) workshop at Ames Research<br />
Center in Mountain View about<br />
<strong>the</strong> Kepler Mission.<br />
On June 28 <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> welcomed<br />
students from <strong>the</strong> National Youth<br />
Leadership Forum on Technology, an<br />
annual program that brings toge<strong>the</strong>r<br />
<strong>the</strong> most gifted high school students<br />
from across <strong>the</strong> United States <strong>with</strong> industry<br />
professionals and educators for a<br />
behind-<strong>the</strong>-scenes view into <strong>the</strong> field of<br />
technology. The <strong>Institute</strong>’s participation<br />
included both a site visit in which students<br />
heard presentations from Jill Tarter, Peter<br />
Backus, Emma Bakes and Tom Kilsdonk,<br />
as well as interactive seminars at<br />
<strong>the</strong> Fairmont in San Jose held by <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Principal Investigators Margaret Race<br />
and Nathalie Cabrol. Postcards from Saturn<br />
is <strong>the</strong> subject of Mark Showalter’s<br />
talk at <strong>the</strong> Mt. Tam Astronomy program<br />
on July 9.<br />
As mentioned in our last issue, <strong>the</strong> Astrobiology<br />
Summer Science Experience for<br />
Teachers (ASSET) program will take place<br />
July 10-16. A science and curriculum institute<br />
for high school science teachers, <strong>the</strong><br />
workshop features a combination of cutting<br />
edge science, inquiry-based teaching<br />
and learning, and leadership skills development.<br />
The program includes presentations<br />
by leading astrobiology researchers<br />
from <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>, NASA, and <strong>the</strong><br />
California Academy of Sciences.<br />
Also in July <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> will host<br />
<strong>the</strong> NAI First Workshop on <strong>the</strong> Habitability<br />
of Planets Orbiting M-Stars. The workshop<br />
runs July 18-20 and will feature many of<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>’s scientists among <strong>the</strong> working<br />
groups.<br />
The <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>’s Frank Drake contributed<br />
<strong>the</strong> afterword to a new astrobiology<br />
book featuring text by Ray Villard<br />
and Lynette Cook’s stunning artwork of<br />
extrasolar worlds. Infinite Worlds – An<br />
Illustrated Voyage to Planets Beyond Our<br />
Sun includes 78 full-page color paintings<br />
and 38 color photographs, in tandem <strong>with</strong><br />
Villard’s commentary on <strong>the</strong> current state<br />
of astronomy, and what may lie in <strong>the</strong><br />
future.<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary 17
Astrobiology<br />
Magnetic Field Reversal<br />
The Andromeda Galaxy<br />
NASA/JPL-Caltech/NOAO<br />
Here Comes<br />
Andromeda<br />
by Laurance Doyle<br />
Looking at <strong>the</strong> last term of <strong>the</strong> Drake Equation, we see that it relates to <strong>the</strong> lifetime<br />
of technological civilizations – how long <strong>the</strong>y last as technological (meaning<br />
interstellar communicating) entities. The three biggest considerations for<br />
our civilization at <strong>the</strong> moment could be characterized as a) getting along <strong>with</strong><br />
each o<strong>the</strong>r, b) getting along <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> environment, and c) staying technologically<br />
alert for large-scale concerns from space.<br />
Some dinosaurs were bipedal, had opposable claws, and were pretty intelligent—so<br />
why didn’t <strong>the</strong>y, for example, invent space travel Well, that’s a topic for ano<strong>the</strong>r essay.<br />
Meanwhile, let’s stick to a few of <strong>the</strong> things we might want to deal <strong>with</strong> “out <strong>the</strong>re” at<br />
various times in <strong>the</strong> future, from a few thousand to a few billion years from now.<br />
The Earth’s magnetic field is thought to<br />
be generated by a dynamo effect – that is,<br />
<strong>the</strong> movement of charged particles in its<br />
huge iron and nickel core as it spins. O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
planets have magnetic fields also, and <strong>the</strong>re<br />
seems to be some relationship between <strong>the</strong><br />
strength of <strong>the</strong> magnetic field and <strong>the</strong> size<br />
and spin rate of <strong>the</strong> magnetic core. Jupiter,<br />
<strong>with</strong> a huge core and a 10-day rotation<br />
period, generates a massive magnetic field,<br />
for example, and spacecraft sent <strong>the</strong>re have<br />
to be specially built to <strong>with</strong>stand this intense<br />
field. You may remember <strong>the</strong> science<br />
fiction movie Outland <strong>with</strong> Sean Connery<br />
stranded in a mining colony on Io, one<br />
of Jupiter’s moons. However, Io would be<br />
uninhabitable since <strong>the</strong> magnetic field of<br />
Jupiter causes a 5 million ampere electric<br />
current to flow through it.<br />
However, magnetic fields can also be<br />
helpful. They can protect <strong>the</strong> inhabitants<br />
of <strong>the</strong> planet from high energy particles<br />
from, for example, <strong>the</strong> solar wind. (Yes, <strong>the</strong><br />
Sun has a wind component, one that can<br />
be used to power solar-sail spacecraft in <strong>the</strong><br />
near future.) When <strong>the</strong> high energy particles<br />
from <strong>the</strong> Sun encounter <strong>the</strong> Earth’s<br />
magnetic field, <strong>the</strong>y are deflected toward<br />
<strong>the</strong> poles, causing beautiful auroral “curtains”<br />
of color as <strong>the</strong>y hit <strong>the</strong> atmosphere.<br />
Without <strong>the</strong> magnetic field of <strong>the</strong> Earth,<br />
<strong>the</strong>se high energy particles could do damage<br />
to biology on Earth.<br />
When rocks containing magnetite cool<br />
from volcanoes or are baked (as in clay pottery),<br />
<strong>the</strong>y record <strong>the</strong> direction of <strong>the</strong> magnetic<br />
field of <strong>the</strong> Earth at <strong>the</strong> time of cooling.<br />
It turns out, from examining rocks of<br />
various ages, that <strong>the</strong> Earth has reversed its<br />
magnetic field many times – <strong>the</strong> last about<br />
750,000 years ago (<strong>the</strong> average being about<br />
every few hundred thousand years). Recent<br />
measurements of ancient pottery and o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
evidence suggest that <strong>the</strong> Earth’s magnetic<br />
field may be declining – perhaps getting<br />
ready for an overdue reversal. This could<br />
take place <strong>with</strong>in <strong>the</strong> next couple of thousand<br />
years. If <strong>the</strong> Earth’s magnetic field is<br />
just beginning to reverse, it would certainly<br />
be important for us to protect ourselves<br />
from <strong>the</strong> high energy particles of <strong>the</strong> solar<br />
wind and of space. It would not be as devastating<br />
an event as, for example, a comet<br />
impact, but it does indicate that we do not<br />
have <strong>the</strong> luxury of indulging in ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Dark Age over <strong>the</strong> next thousand years<br />
or so. If civilization is to maintain itself,<br />
we need to be on our technological “toes”<br />
pretty much from now on.<br />
18<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
http://www.oldstarlight.com<br />
The Moon absorbs any transfer of orbital to rotational angular moment, preventing<br />
<strong>the</strong> Earth from flipping.<br />
Moon Stabilizes Earth’s<br />
Rotation<br />
The most popular <strong>the</strong>ory for <strong>the</strong> origin<br />
of <strong>the</strong> moon is that it came from <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth. We can calculate evolutionary histories<br />
of <strong>the</strong> moon’s orbit as it moved away<br />
from <strong>the</strong> Earth after formation. (It is still<br />
moving away due to <strong>the</strong> Earth’s tidal pull<br />
at about one inch per year. The majority of<br />
<strong>the</strong> tidal dragging comes from Earth’s rotational<br />
slowdown, <strong>with</strong> most being caused<br />
by waters dragging over <strong>the</strong> fairly shallow<br />
Bering Sea.) In doing some of <strong>the</strong>se kinds<br />
of calculations for Mars, it was discovered<br />
that <strong>the</strong> direction of Mars’ rotational axis<br />
could flip ra<strong>the</strong>r suddenly. Now this is not<br />
<strong>the</strong> normal “precession” (as it is called) of a<br />
few degrees that changes, for example, our<br />
north star though <strong>the</strong> millennia. Mars was<br />
calculated to have flipped its rotation axis<br />
up to 90 degrees in as little as a couple of<br />
million years. This was a result of <strong>the</strong> orbital<br />
angular momentum, under certain<br />
circumstances, being transferred to <strong>the</strong><br />
rotational angular momentum and causing<br />
a coupling that led to such a flip in rotation<br />
axis direction.<br />
So why has this not occurred on Earth,<br />
whose axis has seemingly not flipped by<br />
more than a few degrees The apparent<br />
explanation is that <strong>the</strong> Moon absorbs any<br />
transfer of orbital to rotational angular<br />
moment, preventing <strong>the</strong> flip.<br />
Would such a flip be important It could<br />
get very serious – like <strong>the</strong> time a couple<br />
of hundred million years ago when all <strong>the</strong><br />
continents were combined into one big<br />
continent called “Pangaea”—if <strong>the</strong> Earth’s<br />
rotation axis flipped such that this one big<br />
continent became a polar continent like<br />
Antarctica. So, it would appear that a moon<br />
is required for a stable planet <strong>with</strong> life.<br />
This was perhaps surprising news to<br />
folks that would like to see habitable planets<br />
widespread in <strong>the</strong> galaxy requiring, as it<br />
does, both an earthlike planet in <strong>the</strong> circumstellar<br />
habitable zone as well as a fairly large<br />
satellite. This would seem to rule out habitable<br />
planets being very common. However,<br />
additional research into <strong>the</strong> rotational histories<br />
of <strong>the</strong> planets shows that <strong>the</strong> Earth<br />
used to spin a lot faster. If <strong>the</strong> earth spins<br />
faster, that also acts as a protection against<br />
flipping of <strong>the</strong> rotation axis. So, perhaps if<br />
<strong>the</strong> moon had not come off <strong>the</strong> Earth, our<br />
world would still be spinning fast enough<br />
to stabilize itself against flipping. Thus<br />
<strong>the</strong>re may be many o<strong>the</strong>r habitable planets<br />
<strong>with</strong>out a large moon, but <strong>the</strong> inhabitants<br />
will have even fewer hours in <strong>the</strong>ir day than<br />
we do.<br />
The moon, of course, is now perfectly<br />
placed to exactly cover <strong>the</strong> solar disk during<br />
eclipses. This perfect fit has allowed,<br />
for example, a test of General Relativity,<br />
<strong>the</strong> uncovering of <strong>the</strong> element helium,<br />
and <strong>the</strong> discovery of <strong>the</strong> solar corona. And<br />
clearly <strong>the</strong> moon has been a great stimulus<br />
and practice ground for our first efforts at<br />
space travel. However, moving out at an<br />
inch a year, in about 1.6 billion years <strong>the</strong><br />
moon will no longer be able to stabilize<br />
our planet’s spin. We’ll have to be ready for<br />
a climatologically wild ride by <strong>the</strong>n unless<br />
we figure out what to do. Eventually <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth will have <strong>the</strong> same rotation period as<br />
<strong>the</strong> moon’s orbit (i.e., <strong>the</strong> day will equal <strong>the</strong><br />
month) and <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> moon may be expected<br />
to fall back toward <strong>the</strong> Earth, forming a<br />
ring perhaps not dissimilar to those around<br />
Saturn. It will, no doubt, be a great show.<br />
see ANDROMEDA, pg. 20<br />
SAVE THE DATE<br />
Sunday September 25, 2005!<br />
Join us for<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>’s<br />
Annual Team<strong>SETI</strong><br />
Ice Cream Social<br />
To sign up for Team<strong>SETI</strong><br />
visit: www.seti.org/teamseti<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary 19
ANDROMEDA, continued from pg. 19<br />
Here Comes Andromeda<br />
We could talk about many more interesting<br />
phenomena, but perhaps <strong>the</strong> most<br />
spectacular will be <strong>the</strong> merging of <strong>the</strong><br />
Andromeda spiral galaxy <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> Milky<br />
Way in about six billion years. Although no<br />
stars will likely touch (<strong>the</strong> spacing between<br />
stars is huge), this interaction will most<br />
certainly gravitationally affect every star<br />
in both galaxies. The Milky Way, in its 12<br />
billion year history, has swallowed up many<br />
smaller galaxies, but such a merger will be<br />
a unique experience. Every star is thought<br />
to have a cloud (called <strong>the</strong> “Oort Cloud” in<br />
our solar system) that consists of about a<br />
trillion comets. As <strong>the</strong> two galaxies merge,<br />
<strong>the</strong>se comet clouds will get scrambled, causing<br />
increased impacts onto each star’s inner<br />
planets. Billions of stellar systems being tidally<br />
flung around may also cause instability<br />
in <strong>the</strong> orbits of <strong>the</strong> planets around <strong>the</strong>m.<br />
Nicolai Kardeshev has suggested that<br />
<strong>the</strong>re could be three classes of civilizations<br />
– Type I controlling <strong>the</strong> resources of<br />
its planet, Type II controlling <strong>the</strong> resources<br />
of its star, and Type III controlling <strong>the</strong><br />
resources of its galaxy. At <strong>the</strong> moment we<br />
are estimated to be about type 0.1 or so. A<br />
Type II builds such things as Dyson spheres<br />
(structures encompassing <strong>the</strong> star so as to<br />
capture all of its energy). Clearly, a Type III<br />
civilization would be needed to deal <strong>with</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> merging of Andromeda <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> Milky<br />
Way.<br />
So, <strong>the</strong>re we have it – some items on<br />
<strong>the</strong> agenda for <strong>the</strong> next few billion years.<br />
We have some time for planning, but it’s<br />
important that we stay alert – we really<br />
can’t afford to indulge in ano<strong>the</strong>r extended<br />
Dark Age, for example. And who knows, we<br />
might make it to Type III before Andromeda<br />
gets here. If not, perhaps some o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
species in <strong>the</strong> galaxy may have gotten it<br />
toge<strong>the</strong>r enough to help us out.<br />
Team<strong>SETI</strong> members can read <strong>the</strong> unabridged<br />
version of this article online at <strong>the</strong> member<br />
page at www.seti.org<br />
20<br />
Dr. Laurance Doyle<br />
Astronomer, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Dr. Doyle’s projects range<br />
from <strong>the</strong> search for terrestrial<br />
extrasolar planets to<br />
information <strong>the</strong>ory. He is also<br />
<strong>the</strong> president and founder of<br />
PlanetQuest.<br />
Provide For Your Future<br />
and <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>’s<br />
That’s exactly what Vera<br />
Buescher is doing by creating<br />
a <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Life Income<br />
Trust.<br />
“I had some stocks that were paying<br />
very little in dividends, but <strong>the</strong> capital<br />
gains tax on selling <strong>the</strong>m would have<br />
been tremendous. I realized that<br />
making a Life Income Trust <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> would work to benefit<br />
both of us.”<br />
Advantages of a <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Life<br />
Income Trust include lifetime payments<br />
at attractive rates, plus significant<br />
tax benefits for your charitable<br />
contribution.<br />
Rates from 6% to 11%<br />
Vera Buescher,<br />
a special friend who is thinking of<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>’s future.<br />
Fill out <strong>the</strong> form below and mail it to <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> to learn more.<br />
Send information on a <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Life Income Trust<br />
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Contact us by email/phone<br />
Email: legacy@seti.org<br />
1-650-961-6633<br />
ask for Karen Randall<br />
Seth Shostak<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
Allen Telescope Array Update<br />
David DeBoer<br />
The entire assembly is carried out<br />
to its pedestal on <strong>the</strong> end of this<br />
flexible forklift. Pins on <strong>the</strong> top of<br />
<strong>the</strong> pedestal align <strong>the</strong> mounting<br />
“alidade,” and it is <strong>the</strong>n bolted in<br />
place.<br />
David DeBoer<br />
by Dave DeBoer<br />
David DeBoer<br />
Above is <strong>the</strong> assembled antenna <strong>with</strong>in<br />
<strong>the</strong> construction tent. The subreflector<br />
has yet to be added and <strong>the</strong> antenna will<br />
be carried out to its waiting pedestal.<br />
The tent looked so big when it<br />
was first installed. The vaulted<br />
top stands 35 feet above <strong>the</strong><br />
ground. It is 40 feet wide. The<br />
door is almost 30 feet high. It’s<br />
gleaming white. In short, it’s a perfect place<br />
<strong>with</strong>in which to build <strong>the</strong> antennas for <strong>the</strong><br />
Allen Telescope Array.<br />
Well, when you build an entire 20 x 24<br />
foot antenna on a pedestal inside of it, all<br />
of a sudden <strong>the</strong> tent doesn’t look so big.<br />
In fact, <strong>the</strong> door looks a skosh too small.<br />
But <strong>the</strong> assembly does fit in <strong>the</strong> tent; even<br />
<strong>the</strong> somewhat tricky “flip” needed in <strong>the</strong><br />
assembly process cleared <strong>the</strong> ceiling. It also<br />
fit through <strong>the</strong> door, <strong>with</strong> an inch or two<br />
to spare, just as we knew it would. But we<br />
still sighed a bit in relief. Our factory was<br />
in production! And it all went superbly, a<br />
tremendous credit to our chief mechanical<br />
engineer, Matt Fleming, who conceived and<br />
designed <strong>the</strong> antenna mount and all of <strong>the</strong><br />
associated fixtures and hardware.<br />
It has been very gratifying to begin <strong>the</strong><br />
emplacement of antennas at <strong>the</strong> Hat Creek<br />
Radio Observatory site, something which<br />
we’ve been working towards for several<br />
years now. The entire antenna gets assembled<br />
using a series of “fixtures” inside<br />
of this tent. A fancy forklift <strong>the</strong>n picks up<br />
<strong>the</strong> antenna (complete <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> subreflector,<br />
cabling, and electronics), carries it out<br />
to <strong>the</strong> waiting pedestal and sets it carefully<br />
in place. This procession will continue until<br />
later this year, when <strong>the</strong> 42 nd antenna in<br />
Phase I goes up. After a short hiatus, <strong>the</strong><br />
procession will continue as we proceed<br />
toward our full complement of antennas.<br />
The new cryogenics on <strong>the</strong> log-periodic<br />
feed have been working flawlessly, cooling<br />
<strong>the</strong> small low-noise amplifiers that sit at<br />
<strong>the</strong> focus of each antenna to a very chilly 50<br />
K, about 30 K lower than our design goal.<br />
Since <strong>the</strong>se amplifiers are <strong>the</strong> first electronic<br />
components that <strong>the</strong> received electromagnetic<br />
waves have seen in possibly billions<br />
of years, we treat <strong>the</strong>m gently <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong>se<br />
amplifiers. The low temperatures assure<br />
that <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>rmal wiggles of <strong>the</strong> electrons<br />
in <strong>the</strong> device don’t add much noise to <strong>the</strong><br />
weak signal.<br />
Once <strong>the</strong> signals have been amplified, we<br />
can treat <strong>the</strong> signal a bit more harshly, as<br />
we convert <strong>the</strong> microwave signals to optical<br />
signals and transport <strong>the</strong>m back to <strong>the</strong> lab,<br />
where <strong>the</strong>y are converted back to microwave<br />
signals and digitized. Once <strong>the</strong> signals<br />
are in <strong>the</strong> digital domain, we can treat<br />
<strong>the</strong>m <strong>with</strong> impunity. In fact, we clone <strong>the</strong>m<br />
repeatedly. In this way, we can send bit-perfect<br />
copies to several back-end processors<br />
which can individually handle <strong>the</strong> data to<br />
produce many types of data products useful<br />
for <strong>SETI</strong> researchers and astronomers.<br />
So, from <strong>the</strong> large machines installing<br />
<strong>the</strong> big structures which gently receive<br />
<strong>the</strong> incoming wave to <strong>the</strong> small machines<br />
that pick and place <strong>the</strong> tiny-yet-powerful<br />
digital electronics which manipulate <strong>the</strong><br />
signals, <strong>the</strong> progress is tangible. We all look<br />
excitedly to <strong>the</strong> near-term and <strong>the</strong><br />
burgeoning capability of this pioneering<br />
new telescope.<br />
Dr. David DeBoer<br />
Project Manager<br />
Allen Telescope Array<br />
Dr. DeBoer’s Research and<br />
Development efforts include<br />
<strong>the</strong> new signal processing<br />
algorithms and new search<br />
technologies that are<br />
incorporated into observing<br />
projects.<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary 21
The <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>’s<br />
New Educational Classes<br />
Sign up now for one of our classes, held at <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
LIFE IN SPACE<br />
Course #001<br />
Taught by Senior Astronomer Seth Shostak<br />
Course Description:<br />
There is now compelling evidence that many<br />
billions of planets orbit silently and unseen<br />
<strong>with</strong>in <strong>the</strong> star fields of <strong>the</strong> Milky Way, including<br />
at least one that’s only slightly larger than<br />
Earth. Could some of <strong>the</strong>se support life<br />
The search for life beyond Earth is ramping<br />
up. Scientists are planning increased reconnaissance<br />
of Mars and some of <strong>the</strong> moons of <strong>the</strong> outer<br />
solar system in a hunt for nearby biology, while o<strong>the</strong>r researchers<br />
are aiming massive telescopes towards nearby stars as <strong>the</strong>y search<br />
for intelligent beings on o<strong>the</strong>r worlds.<br />
In this course, we’ll investigate one of <strong>the</strong> greatest quests of all<br />
time. We’ll consider (1) why we think life could be as common as<br />
phone poles, (2) how we could find it, (3) whe<strong>the</strong>r it’s possible that<br />
life could spread from planet to planet, or star to star, and (4) supposing<br />
we do find biology elsewhere, what would be <strong>the</strong> effect on<br />
our own society<br />
ASTRO LAB<br />
Course #002<br />
Taught by Senior Astronomer Seth Shostak<br />
Course Description:<br />
Finally, a hands-on course in astronomy! Astro<br />
Lab is different from o<strong>the</strong>r informal courses in<br />
sky science. As a student, you will actively participate,<br />
using photos of galaxies, supernova<br />
remnants and stars to do your own “research”<br />
at <strong>the</strong> classroom desk. Ra<strong>the</strong>r than hours of<br />
non-stop lecture, you’ll investigate <strong>the</strong> expansion<br />
of <strong>the</strong> universe by measuring it yourself. You’ll<br />
classify stars on <strong>the</strong> basis of <strong>the</strong>ir spectral appearance, and estimate<br />
<strong>the</strong> age of a supernova. It’s all done <strong>with</strong> photocopied versions of<br />
real astronomical data.<br />
What do you have to bring to this new course An<br />
inquiring mind and a pocket calculator. All else will be supplied.<br />
Learn astronomy by doing it ... in Astro Lab.<br />
Ages: Adults and Teens age 15 and up<br />
One 2-hour course<br />
Ages: Adults and children age 12 and up<br />
A 4-hour course taught over two evenings<br />
Dates: Tuesday, August 16, and Tuesday, August 23<br />
Time: 7pm-9pm<br />
General Public: $35 per person<br />
Team<strong>SETI</strong> members: $25 per person<br />
Dr. Seth Shostak<br />
Senior Astronomer, <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
Dr. Shostak is a Senior Astronomer at <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>. He<br />
has an undergraduate degree in physics from Princeton University,<br />
and a doctorate in astronomy from <strong>the</strong> California <strong>Institute</strong> of<br />
Technology. For much of his career, Seth conducted radio astronomy<br />
research on galaxies, and has published approximately fifty<br />
Seth Shostak<br />
Date: Thursday August 25<br />
Time: 7pm-9pm<br />
General Public: $35 per person<br />
Team<strong>SETI</strong> members: $25 per person<br />
papers in professional journals. During more than a decade, he<br />
worked at <strong>the</strong> Kapteyn Astronomical <strong>Institute</strong>, in Groningen, The<br />
Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands, using <strong>the</strong> Westerbork Radio Syn<strong>the</strong>sis Telescope. He<br />
also founded and ran a company producing computer animation<br />
for TV.<br />
Seth has written several hundred popular magazine and Web<br />
articles on various topics in astronomy, technology, film and television.<br />
He frequently lectures on astronomy and o<strong>the</strong>r subjects,<br />
and gives approximately 70 talks annually at both educational<br />
and corporate institutions. For <strong>the</strong> last six years, Seth has been a<br />
Distinquished Speaker for <strong>the</strong> American <strong>Institute</strong> of Aeronautics<br />
and Astronautics.<br />
Seth has written, edited and contributed to a half dozen books.<br />
His first popular tome, Sharing <strong>the</strong> Universe: Perspectives on Extraterrestrial<br />
Life (Berkeley Hills Books) appeared in March, 1998. In<br />
1999, it was chosen as a Book of <strong>the</strong> Month Club science selection.<br />
He has also co-authored an astrobiology text, Life in <strong>the</strong> Universe<br />
(Addison-Wesley), and his latest is book is Cosmic Company (Cambridge<br />
Univ. Press). In 2004, he was awarded <strong>the</strong> Klumpke-Roberts<br />
Prize for <strong>the</strong> popularization of astronomy.<br />
22<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer
3 easy ways to register for classes:<br />
1. Online: http://www.seti.org/classes/<br />
2. By Phone: Contact Jennifer Bugnatto at 650-960-4517<br />
3. Complete <strong>the</strong> form below and mail <strong>with</strong> your payment (check or credit card) to:<br />
Attn: Jennifer Bugnatto/Class Registration<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
515 N. Whisman Road<br />
Mountain View, CA 94043<br />
(Make checks payable to “<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong>”)<br />
Name _____________________________________ Course Number(s) ______________<br />
Address ____________________________________________________________<br />
City _______________ State ____________ Zip__________ Date of Birth ______________<br />
Phone: ________________________ Email address: _____________________________<br />
Method of Payment: rCheck rCredit Card<br />
Card Type: rAMEX rVISA rMastercard<br />
Card# ______________________________________________ Expiration _________<br />
Signature ___________________________________<br />
Team<strong>SETI</strong> Member Yes ____ No ____ If you’re not a member, visit www.seti.org/teamseti/ to join now!<br />
Include Member number to receive $10 off each class fee: ________________________<br />
Registration Fees: #Classes ______ x $35 = $ _________<br />
Less Team<strong>SETI</strong> discounts if applicable: $ _________<br />
TOTAL FEES Enclosed: $ _________<br />
Quick survey<br />
1. What o<strong>the</strong>r class topics would you be interested in _______________________________________________<br />
__________________________________________________________________________________________<br />
2. What o<strong>the</strong>r events/benefits would you like to see <strong>the</strong> <strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> offer its members ___________________<br />
__________________________________________________________________________________________<br />
(copy this form for additional registrants, or please enclose a separate sheet of paper <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong> information above)<br />
Second Quarter 2005 - Celebrating our 20th Anniversary 23
Next Issue:<br />
Extrasolar Planets<br />
Jason Williamson<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong><br />
515 North Whisman Road<br />
Mountain View, CA 94043<br />
Telephone 650-961-6633<br />
FAX<br />
50-961-7099<br />
Visit us online at:<br />
http://www.seti.org<br />
24<br />
<strong>SETI</strong> <strong>Institute</strong> Explorer