Volume 1 - The Atmospheric Studies Group at TRC
Volume 1 - The Atmospheric Studies Group at TRC Volume 1 - The Atmospheric Studies Group at TRC
The performance evaluation system also provides results for the fraction of model predictions that are within a factor-of-2 of the observations (FAC2), and the correlation: Modeled Iy FAC2 Correlation CALPUFF 0.655 0.842 (CALPUFF Turbulence Profile) CALPUFF 0.664 0.848 (AERMOD Turbulence Profile) OCD5 0.536 0.712 Observed Iy FAC2 Correlation CALPUFF 0.582 0.827 (CALPUFF Turbulence Profile) CALPUFF 0.600 0.834 (AERMOD Turbulence Profile) OCD5 0.545 0.663 Based on these measures across all 4 datasets, the prototype model for OCS applications improves upon the previous model designed for OCS applications. It has a small mean bias toward overprediction, and exhibits scatter that is typical in that it is close to a factor of two. Final Report Vol.1 76
Table 4-16 Performance Statistics for All CALPUFF Configurations (Modeled Iy uses minimum σ v = 0.37 m/s) OUTPUT OF THE BOOT PROGRAM, LEVEL 960626 No. of observations = 110 No. of models = 11 (with the observed data counted as one) No. of blocks = 9 No. of pieces in each block 9 8 15 16 9 17 18 9 9 All data (no blocking) (N= 110) model mean sigma bias vg corr fa2 mg high 2nd high pcor || (arithmetic values) OBS. 1.53 1.32 0.00 1.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 109 102 n/a OCD5PIY 1.72 1.39 -0.19 2.98 0.712 0.536 0.830 203 191 n/a OCD5OIY 1.61 1.54 -0.08 4.15 0.663 0.545 0.925 232 200 n/a A:c10d 1.53 1.28 0.00 1.71 0.842 0.655 1.003 59 55 n/a B:c10d 1.56 1.39 -0.03 1.90 0.827 0.582 0.972 204 123 n/a E:c10d 1.55 1.30 -0.02 1.69 0.848 0.664 0.978 62 58 n/a F:c10d 1.59 1.41 -0.06 1.88 0.834 0.600 0.941 265 161 n/a C:c10d 2.20 1.31 -0.67 3.20 0.794 0.482 0.511 147 110 n/a D:c10d 2.20 1.40 -0.67 3.50 0.784 0.482 0.511 269 183 n/a G:c10d 2.24 1.32 -0.71 3.19 0.810 0.500 0.493 149 129 n/a H:c10d 2.24 1.41 -0.70 3.47 0.801 0.509 0.494 345 215 n/a Block 1: Ventura_Fall (N= 9) model mean sigma bias vg corr fa2 mg high 2nd high pcor || (arithmetic values) OBS. -0.29 0.72 0.00 1.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 3 2 n/a OCD5PIY 0.47 0.22 -0.76 2.63 0.572 0.222 0.467 3 2 n/a OCD5OIY 0.47 0.28 -0.76 2.31 0.849 0.444 0.467 2 2 n/a A:c10d -0.48 0.56 0.19 1.39 0.668 0.889 1.212 1 1 n/a B:c10d -0.32 0.65 0.02 1.31 0.721 0.778 1.025 2 1 n/a E:c10d -0.46 0.57 0.17 1.37 0.678 0.889 1.181 2 1 n/a F:c10d -0.29 0.66 0.00 1.30 0.726 0.778 1.004 2 1 n/a C:c10d 0.23 0.67 -0.52 1.89 0.628 0.444 0.593 4 3 n/a D:c10d 0.25 0.73 -0.54 1.96 0.645 0.667 0.580 4 3 n/a G:c10d 0.26 0.69 -0.55 1.96 0.633 0.444 0.574 4 3 n/a H:c10d 0.29 0.76 -0.58 2.03 0.659 0.667 0.561 4 3 n/a Block 2: Ventura_Winter (N= 8) model mean sigma bias vg corr fa2 mg high 2nd high pcor || (arithmetic values) OBS. 0.71 0.33 0.00 1.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 3 3 n/a OCD5PIY 0.98 0.13 -0.28 1.24 -0.188 0.875 0.758 3 3 n/a OCD5OIY 0.47 0.57 0.24 1.24 0.724 0.875 1.266 4 3 n/a A:c10d 0.44 0.67 0.27 1.72 0.210 0.625 1.310 4 3 n/a B:c10d 0.31 0.56 0.40 1.58 0.343 0.625 1.490 4 3 n/a E:c10d 0.41 0.65 0.29 1.69 0.221 0.625 1.341 4 3 n/a F:c10d 0.29 0.56 0.42 1.59 0.369 0.625 1.522 4 3 n/a C:c10d 1.59 0.78 -0.88 4.14 0.120 0.375 0.416 13 13 n/a D:c10d 1.39 0.75 -0.68 2.56 0.394 0.500 0.508 10 10 n/a G:c10d 1.57 0.76 -0.86 3.91 0.128 0.375 0.422 12 12 n/a H:c10d 1.37 0.75 -0.66 2.48 0.410 0.500 0.515 10 10 n/a Block 3: Pismo_Winter (N= 15) model mean sigma bias vg corr fa2 mg high 2nd high pcor || (arithmetic values) OBS. 1.34 0.58 0.00 1.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 9 7 n/a OCD5PIY 1.20 0.68 0.13 2.28 -0.008 0.467 1.143 9 9 n/a OCD5OIY 1.02 1.26 0.32 3.63 0.510 0.467 1.376 14 13 n/a A:c10d 1.18 0.59 0.15 1.89 0.098 0.667 1.167 9 6 n/a B:c10d 1.12 0.79 0.22 1.64 0.565 0.600 1.244 10 10 n/a E:c10d 1.15 0.58 0.18 1.85 0.125 0.600 1.203 9 7 n/a F:c10d 1.12 0.80 0.22 1.59 0.602 0.667 1.247 10 10 n/a C:c10d 1.89 0.77 -0.56 3.65 -0.075 0.467 0.573 17 17 n/a D:c10d 1.79 0.79 -0.46 2.52 0.272 0.400 0.633 17 17 n/a G:c10d 1.88 0.73 -0.55 3.28 -0.027 0.600 0.580 18 16 n/a H:c10d 1.80 0.79 -0.46 2.36 0.340 0.400 0.630 18 17 n/a Final Report Vol.1 77
- Page 27 and 28: 4. MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 4.1
- Page 29 and 30: The CALMET preprocessors TERREL, CT
- Page 31 and 32: All sampler locations are used as r
- Page 33 and 34: Table 4-2b Over-water Meteorologica
- Page 35 and 36: Meteorological data used in the OCD
- Page 37 and 38: . . CARPINTERIA, CA 3814 . UTM Nort
- Page 39 and 40: Year Month Day Table 4-4 Over-water
- Page 41 and 42: Datum: NAS-C (North American 1927)
- Page 43 and 44: Table 4-5 Source Characterization f
- Page 45 and 46: Table 4-6a Over-water Meteorologica
- Page 47 and 48: Geophysical Processing Gridded land
- Page 49 and 50: Table 4-7 Source Characterization f
- Page 51 and 52: tape format called GF-3. These data
- Page 53 and 54: . . Strait of Oresund 6230 6220 UTM
- Page 55 and 56: . . Strait of Oresund 6230 6220 UTM
- Page 57 and 58: Table 4-10 SEA.DAT Meteorological D
- Page 59 and 60: the numbers refer to ICOARE values,
- Page 61 and 62: that are simulated during the one-h
- Page 63 and 64: 4.3 Evaluation Results Cameron, Car
- Page 65 and 66: improve model performance relative
- Page 67 and 68: Figure 4-7. Graphical depiction of
- Page 69 and 70: Figure 4-8. Graphical depiction of
- Page 71 and 72: Figure 4-9. Graphical depiction of
- Page 73 and 74: Figure 4-10. Graphical depiction of
- Page 75 and 76: Table 4-15 Performance Statistics f
- Page 77: Performance of CALPUFF Configuratio
- Page 81 and 82: Table 4-16 (continued) Performance
- Page 83 and 84: Figure 4-12. Graphical depiction of
- Page 85 and 86: into CALPUFF, and the simulations a
- Page 87 and 88: Table 4-18 Oresund Results with Min
- Page 89 and 90: Table 4-20 Oresund Results with Min
- Page 91 and 92: Table 4-21 Performance Statistics f
- Page 93 and 94: 4.4 Recommendations A minimum σ v
- Page 95 and 96: SEA.DAT and OZONE.DAT files are pro
- Page 97 and 98: 36 34 32 30 Latitude 28 26 24 22 -1
- Page 99 and 100: WMO Number WBAN Number Station Iden
- Page 101 and 102: WMO Number WBAN Number Station Iden
- Page 103 and 104: WMO Number WBAN Number Station Iden
- Page 105 and 106: 36 72363 72340 34 72249 72248 72235
- Page 107 and 108: 36 34 32 41008 30 42035 42007 42040
- Page 109 and 110: 36 34 32 30 Latitude 28 26 24 22 -1
- Page 111 and 112: COOP State Station Name Table 5-4.
- Page 113 and 114: COOP State Station Name Table 5-4.
- Page 115 and 116: Table 5-4. (Concluded) Hourly NWS P
- Page 117 and 118: Table 5-5. Ozone Stations Station I
- Page 119 and 120: Table 5-5. (Continued) Ozone Statio
- Page 121 and 122: Table 5-5. (Continued) Ozone Statio
- Page 123 and 124: 36 317 339 361 383 405 427 449 471
- Page 125 and 126: - Figure 5-8. “Inputs/Outputs & R
- Page 127 and 128: 6. REFERENCES Batchvarova, E. and S
Table 4-16<br />
Performance St<strong>at</strong>istics for All CALPUFF Configur<strong>at</strong>ions<br />
(Modeled Iy uses minimum σ v = 0.37 m/s)<br />
OUTPUT OF THE BOOT PROGRAM, LEVEL 960626<br />
No. of observ<strong>at</strong>ions = 110<br />
No. of models = 11<br />
(with the observed d<strong>at</strong>a counted as one)<br />
No. of blocks = 9<br />
No. of pieces in each block<br />
9 8 15 16 9 17 18 9 9<br />
All d<strong>at</strong>a (no blocking) (N= 110)<br />
model mean sigma bias vg corr fa2 mg high 2nd high pcor<br />
|| (arithmetic values)<br />
OBS. 1.53 1.32 0.00 1.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 109 102 n/a<br />
OCD5PIY 1.72 1.39 -0.19 2.98 0.712 0.536 0.830 203 191 n/a<br />
OCD5OIY 1.61 1.54 -0.08 4.15 0.663 0.545 0.925 232 200 n/a<br />
A:c10d 1.53 1.28 0.00 1.71 0.842 0.655 1.003 59 55 n/a<br />
B:c10d 1.56 1.39 -0.03 1.90 0.827 0.582 0.972 204 123 n/a<br />
E:c10d 1.55 1.30 -0.02 1.69 0.848 0.664 0.978 62 58 n/a<br />
F:c10d 1.59 1.41 -0.06 1.88 0.834 0.600 0.941 265 161 n/a<br />
C:c10d 2.20 1.31 -0.67 3.20 0.794 0.482 0.511 147 110 n/a<br />
D:c10d 2.20 1.40 -0.67 3.50 0.784 0.482 0.511 269 183 n/a<br />
G:c10d 2.24 1.32 -0.71 3.19 0.810 0.500 0.493 149 129 n/a<br />
H:c10d 2.24 1.41 -0.70 3.47 0.801 0.509 0.494 345 215 n/a<br />
Block 1: Ventura_Fall (N= 9)<br />
model mean sigma bias vg corr fa2 mg high 2nd high pcor<br />
|| (arithmetic values)<br />
OBS. -0.29 0.72 0.00 1.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 3 2 n/a<br />
OCD5PIY 0.47 0.22 -0.76 2.63 0.572 0.222 0.467 3 2 n/a<br />
OCD5OIY 0.47 0.28 -0.76 2.31 0.849 0.444 0.467 2 2 n/a<br />
A:c10d -0.48 0.56 0.19 1.39 0.668 0.889 1.212 1 1 n/a<br />
B:c10d -0.32 0.65 0.02 1.31 0.721 0.778 1.025 2 1 n/a<br />
E:c10d -0.46 0.57 0.17 1.37 0.678 0.889 1.181 2 1 n/a<br />
F:c10d -0.29 0.66 0.00 1.30 0.726 0.778 1.004 2 1 n/a<br />
C:c10d 0.23 0.67 -0.52 1.89 0.628 0.444 0.593 4 3 n/a<br />
D:c10d 0.25 0.73 -0.54 1.96 0.645 0.667 0.580 4 3 n/a<br />
G:c10d 0.26 0.69 -0.55 1.96 0.633 0.444 0.574 4 3 n/a<br />
H:c10d 0.29 0.76 -0.58 2.03 0.659 0.667 0.561 4 3 n/a<br />
Block 2: Ventura_Winter (N= 8)<br />
model mean sigma bias vg corr fa2 mg high 2nd high pcor<br />
|| (arithmetic values)<br />
OBS. 0.71 0.33 0.00 1.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 3 3 n/a<br />
OCD5PIY 0.98 0.13 -0.28 1.24 -0.188 0.875 0.758 3 3 n/a<br />
OCD5OIY 0.47 0.57 0.24 1.24 0.724 0.875 1.266 4 3 n/a<br />
A:c10d 0.44 0.67 0.27 1.72 0.210 0.625 1.310 4 3 n/a<br />
B:c10d 0.31 0.56 0.40 1.58 0.343 0.625 1.490 4 3 n/a<br />
E:c10d 0.41 0.65 0.29 1.69 0.221 0.625 1.341 4 3 n/a<br />
F:c10d 0.29 0.56 0.42 1.59 0.369 0.625 1.522 4 3 n/a<br />
C:c10d 1.59 0.78 -0.88 4.14 0.120 0.375 0.416 13 13 n/a<br />
D:c10d 1.39 0.75 -0.68 2.56 0.394 0.500 0.508 10 10 n/a<br />
G:c10d 1.57 0.76 -0.86 3.91 0.128 0.375 0.422 12 12 n/a<br />
H:c10d 1.37 0.75 -0.66 2.48 0.410 0.500 0.515 10 10 n/a<br />
Block 3: Pismo_Winter (N= 15)<br />
model mean sigma bias vg corr fa2 mg high 2nd high pcor<br />
|| (arithmetic values)<br />
OBS. 1.34 0.58 0.00 1.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 9 7 n/a<br />
OCD5PIY 1.20 0.68 0.13 2.28 -0.008 0.467 1.143 9 9 n/a<br />
OCD5OIY 1.02 1.26 0.32 3.63 0.510 0.467 1.376 14 13 n/a<br />
A:c10d 1.18 0.59 0.15 1.89 0.098 0.667 1.167 9 6 n/a<br />
B:c10d 1.12 0.79 0.22 1.64 0.565 0.600 1.244 10 10 n/a<br />
E:c10d 1.15 0.58 0.18 1.85 0.125 0.600 1.203 9 7 n/a<br />
F:c10d 1.12 0.80 0.22 1.59 0.602 0.667 1.247 10 10 n/a<br />
C:c10d 1.89 0.77 -0.56 3.65 -0.075 0.467 0.573 17 17 n/a<br />
D:c10d 1.79 0.79 -0.46 2.52 0.272 0.400 0.633 17 17 n/a<br />
G:c10d 1.88 0.73 -0.55 3.28 -0.027 0.600 0.580 18 16 n/a<br />
H:c10d 1.80 0.79 -0.46 2.36 0.340 0.400 0.630 18 17 n/a<br />
Final Report Vol.1 77
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