Volume 1 - The Atmospheric Studies Group at TRC
Volume 1 - The Atmospheric Studies Group at TRC Volume 1 - The Atmospheric Studies Group at TRC
Influence of Minimum σ v in CALPUFF The performance of CALPUFF when using modeled lateral turbulence with either the default minimum σ v of 0.5 m/s or the OCD minimum σ v of 0.37 m/s is evaluated using runs made with the standard COARE option, denoted here as c10d. Results from Appendix A are collected and processed to form the geometric performance measures for CALPUFF configurations PuffA, PuffC, PuffE and PuffG. Results of applying the model evaluation software, including 95% confidence limits, are listed in Table 4-15 and Figure 4-11. A minimum σ v provides a lower limit to the rate of lateral dispersion, so using a smaller value is expected to lead to larger modeled concentrations whenever predicted lateral turbulence is small. This may happen often in these overwater datasets due to small turbulence during stable periods. Differences can be seen in the performance results, and as expected, peak modeled concentrations with the default value of 0.5 m/s are smaller than those with 0.37 m/s. Furthermore, the results indicate that this leads to an underprediction with the Draxler Fy configuration (PuffA and PuffE). The configurations with a computed Lagrangian timescale TLy (PuffC and PuffG) still overpredict by about a factor of two. All of the differences in MG seen in Figure 4-11 are statistically significant, and only CALPUFF configurations with Draxler Fy and the minimum σ v = 0.37 m/s have a confidence interval that overlaps zero bias. Therefore, overwater applications of CALMET/CALPUFF should use a minimum σ v = 0.37 m/s, and an option for specifying an overwater minimum should be added to CALPUFF. Final Report Vol.1 72
Table 4-15 Performance Statistics for CALPUFF Configurations with Modeled Iy for Minimum σ v = 0.37 and 0.5 m/s OUTPUT OF THE BOOT PROGRAM, LEVEL 960626 No. of observations = 110 No. of models = 9 (with the observed data counted as one) No. of blocks = 9 No. of pieces in each block 9 8 15 16 9 17 18 9 9 All data (no blocking) (N= 110) model mean sigma bias vg corr fa2 mg high 2nd high pcor || (arithmetic values) A:37 1.53 1.28 0.00 1.71 0.842 0.655 1.003 59 55 n/a E:37 1.55 1.30 -0.02 1.69 0.848 0.664 0.978 62 58 n/a C:37 2.20 1.31 -0.67 3.20 0.794 0.482 0.511 147 110 n/a G:37 2.24 1.32 -0.71 3.19 0.810 0.500 0.493 149 129 n/a A:50 1.33 1.22 0.21 1.77 0.838 0.645 1.229 44 44 n/a E:50 1.36 1.23 0.18 1.72 0.845 0.636 1.192 49 45 n/a C:50 2.09 1.28 -0.55 2.71 0.796 0.518 0.575 123 98 n/a G:50 2.12 1.29 -0.59 2.71 0.810 0.491 0.554 124 114 n/a SUMMARY OF CONFIDENCE LIMITS ANALYSES ------------------------------------- D(log(vg)) among models: an 'X' indicates significantly different from zero A E C G A E C G : : : : : : : : 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------- A:37 | X X X X E:37 | X X X X C:37 | X X X X G:37 | X X X X A:50 | X X X E:50 | X X C:50 | D(log(mg)) among models: an 'X' indicates significantly different from zero A E C G A E C G : : : : : : : : 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------- A:37 | X X X X X X X E:37 | X X X X X X C:37 | X X X X X G:37 | X X X X A:50 | X X X E:50 | X X C:50 | X log(vg) for each model: an 'X' indicates significantly different from zero A E C G A E C G : : : : : : : : 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------- X X X X X X X X log(mg) for each model: an 'X' indicates significantly different from zero A E C G A E C G : : : : : : : : 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------- X X X X X X Final Report Vol.1 73
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Influence of Minimum σ v in CALPUFF<br />
<strong>The</strong> performance of CALPUFF when using modeled l<strong>at</strong>eral turbulence with either the<br />
default minimum σ v of 0.5 m/s or the OCD minimum σ v of 0.37 m/s is evalu<strong>at</strong>ed<br />
using runs made with the standard COARE option, denoted here as c10d. Results<br />
from Appendix A are collected and processed to form the geometric performance<br />
measures for CALPUFF configur<strong>at</strong>ions PuffA, PuffC, PuffE and PuffG. Results of<br />
applying the model evalu<strong>at</strong>ion software, including 95% confidence limits, are listed<br />
in Table 4-15 and Figure 4-11.<br />
A minimum σ v provides a lower limit to the r<strong>at</strong>e of l<strong>at</strong>eral dispersion, so using a<br />
smaller value is expected to lead to larger modeled concentr<strong>at</strong>ions whenever<br />
predicted l<strong>at</strong>eral turbulence is small. This may happen often in these overw<strong>at</strong>er<br />
d<strong>at</strong>asets due to small turbulence during stable periods. Differences can be seen in the<br />
performance results, and as expected, peak modeled concentr<strong>at</strong>ions with the default<br />
value of 0.5 m/s are smaller than those with 0.37 m/s. Furthermore, the results<br />
indic<strong>at</strong>e th<strong>at</strong> this leads to an underprediction with the Draxler Fy configur<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
(PuffA and PuffE). <strong>The</strong> configur<strong>at</strong>ions with a computed Lagrangian timescale TLy<br />
(PuffC and PuffG) still overpredict by about a factor of two. All of the differences in<br />
MG seen in Figure 4-11 are st<strong>at</strong>istically significant, and only CALPUFF<br />
configur<strong>at</strong>ions with Draxler Fy and the minimum σ v = 0.37 m/s have a confidence<br />
interval th<strong>at</strong> overlaps zero bias.<br />
<strong>The</strong>refore, overw<strong>at</strong>er applic<strong>at</strong>ions of CALMET/CALPUFF should use a minimum σ v<br />
= 0.37 m/s, and an option for specifying an overw<strong>at</strong>er minimum should be added to<br />
CALPUFF.<br />
Final Report Vol.1 72
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