Volume 1 - The Atmospheric Studies Group at TRC

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• Based on mean performance across all 4 datasets, the prototype model for OCS applications improves upon the previous model designed for OCS applications. It has a small mean bias toward overprediction, and exhibits scatter that is typical in that it is close to a factor of two. • A computed Lagrangian timescale for lateral dispersion produces a statistically significant factor of two overprediction. Runs with the standard Draxler Fy curve produce a small overprediction bias that is not statistically different from zero (MG=1). • Using modeled Iy in CALPUFF with a minimum σ v of 0.37 m/s produces less scatter and slightly smaller overpredictions than using the observed Iy. Using modeled Iy in CALPUFF with a minimum σ v of 0.5 m/s reduces the bias and produces a statistically significant underprediction (MG>1) with the Draxler Fy curves. • CALPUFF/AERMOD turbulence profile choice produces similar results, with the AERMOD choice being slightly more conservative (larger peak χ/Q). Influence of COARE Options in CALMET Inspection of these results indicates that the choice among COARE options in CALMET does not have a large influence on model performance. The largest influence on performance appears to be selecting the test algorithm for computing a Lagrangian timescale for lateral diffusion rather than using the timescale implicit in the Draxler Fy curves. To better illustrate the effect of the COARE options, results are collected and processed to form the geometric performance measures for the subset of CALPUFF configurations that do not include the computed Lagrangian timescale (PuffA, PuffB, PuffE and PuffF). Also, we choose to include just the PuffA and PuffE configurations that use a minimum σ v of 0.37 m/s. Results of applying the model evaluation software, including 95% confidence limits, are listed in Tables 4-11 through 4-14, and in Figures 4-7 through 4-10. Inclusion of the COARE module in CALMET/CALPUFF appears to offer a distinct performance advantage over the original OCD-based overwater flux module. The scatter that is quantified as VG is smaller for all 4 CALPUFF configurations when any of the non-zero COARE options is selected, and the difference in VG is statistically significant for all configurations except PuffB. Differences in MG appear smaller, but all of these differences are statistically significant except that between option c0 and c10s for the PuffB configuration. Among the COARE options for treating wave effects on roughness length, the shallow water adjustment to the Charnock parameter (denoted here as 10s) does not Final Report Vol.1 62
improve model performance relative to using the standard Charnock parameter formulation (denoted here as 10d). These near-shore locations may present windwave interactions that are different from those in the open ocean, but the simple adjustment in option c10s does not capture these. Perhaps wave observations in combination with the COARE wave options in c11 or c12 would improve model performance in “shallow” water, but such observations are not contained in these datasets. Based on this evaluation, the standard COARE option (denoted here as c10d) may be used at near shore locations in the OCS regions. Final Report Vol.1 63
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Development of the Next Generation
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1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this
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• Prognostic Meteorological Model
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o 1: Maul (1980)-Carson (1973) o 2:
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into 50 tiles (90 RUC grid-points/t
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y H ( 1− 34.15z / L) 1/ 3 = (3-9)
Page 13 and 14: During execution, the bulk algorith
Page 15 and 16: Anemometer Height Adjustment for La
Page 17 and 18: T (ºK) g (m/s 2 ) temperature grav
Page 19 and 20: adjusted to account for the effect
Page 21 and 22: Two methods of supplying the timesc
Page 23 and 24: cell is the cell that determines th
Page 25 and 26: June 4 (1130-1230 CET) L. Turbulenc
Page 27 and 28: 4. MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 4.1
Page 29 and 30: The CALMET preprocessors TERREL, CT
Page 31 and 32: All sampler locations are used as r
Page 33 and 34: Table 4-2b Over-water Meteorologica
Page 35 and 36: Meteorological data used in the OCD
Page 37 and 38: . . CARPINTERIA, CA 3814 . UTM Nort
Page 39 and 40: Year Month Day Table 4-4 Over-water
Page 41 and 42: Datum: NAS-C (North American 1927)
Page 43 and 44: Table 4-5 Source Characterization f
Page 45 and 46: Table 4-6a Over-water Meteorologica
Page 47 and 48: Geophysical Processing Gridded land
Page 49 and 50: Table 4-7 Source Characterization f
Page 51 and 52: tape format called GF-3. These data
Page 53 and 54: . . Strait of Oresund 6230 6220 UTM
Page 55 and 56: . . Strait of Oresund 6230 6220 UTM
Page 57 and 58: Table 4-10 SEA.DAT Meteorological D
Page 59 and 60: the numbers refer to ICOARE values,
Page 61 and 62: that are simulated during the one-h
Page 63: 4.3 Evaluation Results Cameron, Car
Page 67 and 68: Figure 4-7. Graphical depiction of
Page 75 and 76: Table 4-15 Performance Statistics f
Page 77 and 78: Performance of CALPUFF Configuratio
Page 81 and 82: Table 4-16 (continued) Performance
Page 85 and 86: into CALPUFF, and the simulations a
Page 87 and 88: Table 4-18 Oresund Results with Min
Page 89 and 90: Table 4-20 Oresund Results with Min
Page 93 and 94: 4.4 Recommendations A minimum σ v
Page 95 and 96: SEA.DAT and OZONE.DAT files are pro
Page 97 and 98: 36 34 32 30 Latitude 28 26 24 22 -1
Page 99 and 100: WMO Number WBAN Number Station Iden
Page 105 and 106: 36 72363 72340 34 72249 72248 72235
Page 107 and 108: 36 34 32 41008 30 42035 42007 42040
Page 109 and 110: 36 34 32 30 Latitude 28 26 24 22 -1
Page 111 and 112: COOP State Station Name Table 5-4.
Page 113 and 114: COOP State Station Name Table 5-4.
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Table 5-4. (Concluded) Hourly NWS P
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Table 5-5. Ozone Stations Station I
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Table 5-5. (Continued) Ozone Statio
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Table 5-5. (Continued) Ozone Statio
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36 317 339 361 383 405 427 449 471
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- Figure 5-8. “Inputs/Outputs & R
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6. REFERENCES Batchvarova, E. and S
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Maat, N., C. Kraan, and W.A. Oost,
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APPENDIX: COMPILATION OF A HIGH RES
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