Volume 1 - The Atmospheric Studies Group at TRC

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MG = exp(ln( Co / Cp) VG = exp((ln( Co / Cp)) 2 ) R = (ln Co − ln Co)(lnCp − ln Cp) /( σ lnCoσ lnCp ) FAC2 = fraction 0.5 ≤ ( Co / Cp) ≤ 2 geometric variance (VG), the correlation coefficient (R), and the fraction within a factor of two (FAC2). If Co and Cp are identical, MG is 1.0 and VG is 0. A factor of two scatter with no bias results in a VG of about 1.6. The minimum possible VG is related to the MG as lnVG min =(lnMG) 2 . Confidence limits generated by bootstrap resampling techniques are used to assess the significance of any differences in these measures. Resampling is done in blocks that preserve the seasonal features in each of the datasets, as originally done in the OCD4 evaluations. Resampling blocks are chosen to preserve the representation of each site, and seasonality (e.g., each resampled set contains 17 entries for “Cameron Winter”, which are randomly chosen with replacement from the 17 periods that comprise “Cameron Winter”). Data from Oresund are not split. The number of periods in each block are: BLOCK Number Ventura Fall 9 Ventura Winter 8 Pismo Beach Summer 16 Pismo Beach Winter 15 Cameron Summer 9 Cameron Winter 17 Carpinteria Sf6 18 Carpinteria Freon 9 Carpinteria Fumigation 9 Oresund 9 Final Report Vol.1 60
4.3 Evaluation Results Cameron, Carpinteria, Pismo Beach, Ventura A total of 60 CALPUFF simulations are needed for each experiment-hour in the OCD4 dataset to explore the sensitivity of model performance to the five CALMET configurations associated with the use of the COARE module and the 16 CALPUFF configurations associated with choices for minimum σ v , turbulence velocity profiles in the vertical, use of observed I y , and the utility of computing the lateral Lagrangian timescale from boundary layer parameters. Note that 60 simulations are needed instead of 80 because the choice of the minimum σ v is only applied to modeled turbulence, not observed turbulence. Individual CALPUFF configurations are labeled A through H, covering all combinations except the minimum σ v : PuffA -- Modeled Iy, CALPUFF Turb(z), Draxler Fy PuffB -- Observed Iy, CALPUFF Turb(z), Draxler Fy PuffE -- Modeled Iy, AERMOD Turb(z), Draxler Fy PuffF -- Observed Iy, AERMOD Turb(z), Draxler Fy PuffC -- Modeled Iy, CALPUFF Turb(z), Variable TLy PuffD -- Observed Iy, CALPUFF Turb(z), Variable TLy PuffG -- Modeled Iy, AERMOD Turb(z), Variable TLy PuffH -- Observed Iy, AERMOD Turb(z), Variable Tly Analysis of these results leads to the following conclusions: • The COARE “0” option (OCD-based overwater flux model) tends to produce more scatter (larger VG) than the other COARE options, and a mean bias toward smaller peak χ/Q. • COARE variations 10d, 10s, 11, and 12 result in small performance differences, with the shallow-water adjustment 10s usually associated with smaller bias. • The standard COARE option 10d and the two wave model options 11 and 12 do not have a significantly different VG, and the MG for option 10d produces a consistently small overprediction bias. • CALPUFF results show less scatter than OCD5, and less tendency to overpredict with the Draxler Fy curve. This CALMET/CALPUFF configuration places a larger fraction of the modeled peak χ/Q within a factor of two of the observed peak χ/Q, and exhibits a better correlation over all experiment-hours. Final Report Vol.1 61
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Development of the Next Generation
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1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this
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• Prognostic Meteorological Model
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o 1: Maul (1980)-Carson (1973) o 2:
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into 50 tiles (90 RUC grid-points/t
Page 11 and 12: y H ( 1− 34.15z / L) 1/ 3 = (3-9)
Page 13 and 14: During execution, the bulk algorith
Page 15 and 16: Anemometer Height Adjustment for La
Page 17 and 18: T (ºK) g (m/s 2 ) temperature grav
Page 19 and 20: adjusted to account for the effect
Page 21 and 22: Two methods of supplying the timesc
Page 23 and 24: cell is the cell that determines th
Page 25 and 26: June 4 (1130-1230 CET) L. Turbulenc
Page 27 and 28: 4. MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 4.1
Page 29 and 30: The CALMET preprocessors TERREL, CT
Page 31 and 32: All sampler locations are used as r
Page 33 and 34: Table 4-2b Over-water Meteorologica
Page 35 and 36: Meteorological data used in the OCD
Page 37 and 38: . . CARPINTERIA, CA 3814 . UTM Nort
Page 39 and 40: Year Month Day Table 4-4 Over-water
Page 41 and 42: Datum: NAS-C (North American 1927)
Page 43 and 44: Table 4-5 Source Characterization f
Page 45 and 46: Table 4-6a Over-water Meteorologica
Page 47 and 48: Geophysical Processing Gridded land
Page 49 and 50: Table 4-7 Source Characterization f
Page 51 and 52: tape format called GF-3. These data
Page 53 and 54: . . Strait of Oresund 6230 6220 UTM
Page 55 and 56: . . Strait of Oresund 6230 6220 UTM
Page 57 and 58: Table 4-10 SEA.DAT Meteorological D
Page 59 and 60: the numbers refer to ICOARE values,
Page 61: that are simulated during the one-h
Page 65 and 66: improve model performance relative
Page 67 and 68: Figure 4-7. Graphical depiction of
Page 75 and 76: Table 4-15 Performance Statistics f
Page 77 and 78: Performance of CALPUFF Configuratio
Page 81 and 82: Table 4-16 (continued) Performance
Page 85 and 86: into CALPUFF, and the simulations a
Page 87 and 88: Table 4-18 Oresund Results with Min
Page 89 and 90: Table 4-20 Oresund Results with Min
Page 93 and 94: 4.4 Recommendations A minimum σ v
Page 95 and 96: SEA.DAT and OZONE.DAT files are pro
Page 97 and 98: 36 34 32 30 Latitude 28 26 24 22 -1
Page 99 and 100: WMO Number WBAN Number Station Iden
Page 105 and 106: 36 72363 72340 34 72249 72248 72235
Page 107 and 108: 36 34 32 41008 30 42035 42007 42040
Page 109 and 110: 36 34 32 30 Latitude 28 26 24 22 -1
Page 111 and 112: COOP State Station Name Table 5-4.
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COOP State Station Name Table 5-4.
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Table 5-4. (Concluded) Hourly NWS P
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Table 5-5. Ozone Stations Station I
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Table 5-5. (Continued) Ozone Statio
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Table 5-5. (Continued) Ozone Statio
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36 317 339 361 383 405 427 449 471
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- Figure 5-8. “Inputs/Outputs & R
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6. REFERENCES Batchvarova, E. and S
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Maat, N., C. Kraan, and W.A. Oost,
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APPENDIX: COMPILATION OF A HIGH RES
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Volume 1 - The Atmospheric Studies Group at TRC

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