Prioritizing new malaria vaccine candidates for further development
Prioritizing new malaria vaccine candidates for further development Prioritizing new malaria vaccine candidates for further development
Adaptation of portfolio management model for prioritization Inputs Metrics POS Probability of technical & regulatory success (PTRS) Financing and country-level uptake Costs Development costs Implementation, including cost of goods sold (COGs) Value Public health impact (metric) “Strategic value” Saving lives & preventing disease Control & elimination Public health impact: Cases or deaths averted Strategic value: Metric 22
Cost Low High A commercial-sector model for prioritization: Portfolio management Inputs Metrics Low High Probability of Success (POS) Bubble Area is proportional to NPV POS (Risk) Costs Value Probability of Technical & Regulatory Success (PTRS) Commercialization Risk Highly sensitive to assumptions Development costs Commercialization, including cost of goods sold (COGs) Assumptions = Risk + Uncertainty Net Present Value (Discounted Cash Flow) “Strategic Value” 23
- Page 1 and 2: Prioritizing New Malaria Vaccine Ca
- Page 3 and 4: Why prioritize • No need to prior
- Page 5 and 6: Global malaria vaccine pipeline Pha
- Page 7 and 8: What to prioritize • Strategic go
- Page 9 and 10: The Malaria Vaccine Technology Road
- Page 11 and 12: 1 2 Reasons to update the Roadmap
- Page 13 and 14: Updating the Malaria Vaccine Techno
- Page 15 and 16: Strategic goals, outcomes, and vacc
- Page 17 and 18: Strategic goals, outcomes, and vacc
- Page 19 and 20: Thoughts on how vaccine candidates
- Page 21: Cost Low High A commercial-sector m
- Page 25 and 26: Sources and management of uncertain
- Page 27 and 28: Prioritizing through defining/manag
- Page 29 and 30: Summary • There is an ongoing nee
Cost<br />
Low<br />
High<br />
A commercial-sector model <strong>for</strong> prioritization:<br />
Portfolio management<br />
Inputs<br />
Metrics<br />
Low<br />
High<br />
Probability of Success<br />
(POS)<br />
Bubble Area is proportional to NPV<br />
POS<br />
(Risk)<br />
Costs<br />
Value<br />
Probability of Technical &<br />
Regulatory Success<br />
(PTRS)<br />
Commercialization Risk<br />
Highly sensitive to assumptions<br />
Development costs<br />
Commercialization,<br />
including cost of goods<br />
sold (COGs)<br />
Assumptions = Risk + Uncertainty<br />
Net Present Value<br />
(Discounted Cash Flow)<br />
“Strategic Value”<br />
23
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