Prioritizing new malaria vaccine candidates for further development
Prioritizing new malaria vaccine candidates for further development Prioritizing new malaria vaccine candidates for further development
Probability of success (%) How to approach prioritization • A wide range of tools • Most efficient and effective, when done as a portfolio rather than on a project-by-project basis • Incents better resource stewardship • Allows richer strategic trade-offs analyses Probability of Success (%) vs. Cost vs. NPV Development costs (x$10M) (Bubble area is proportional to NPV) 20
Cost Low High A commercial-sector model for prioritization: Portfolio management Inputs Metrics Low High Probability of success (POS) (Bubble area is proportional to NPV) POS (risk) Costs Value Probability of technical & regulatory success (PTRS) Commercialization risk Development costs Commercialization, including cost of goods sold (COGs) Net present value (NPV) (discounted cash flow) “Strategic value” 21
- Page 1 and 2: Prioritizing New Malaria Vaccine Ca
- Page 3 and 4: Why prioritize • No need to prior
- Page 5 and 6: Global malaria vaccine pipeline Pha
- Page 7 and 8: What to prioritize • Strategic go
- Page 9 and 10: The Malaria Vaccine Technology Road
- Page 11 and 12: 1 2 Reasons to update the Roadmap
- Page 13 and 14: Updating the Malaria Vaccine Techno
- Page 15 and 16: Strategic goals, outcomes, and vacc
- Page 17 and 18: Strategic goals, outcomes, and vacc
- Page 19: Thoughts on how vaccine candidates
- Page 23 and 24: Cost Low High A commercial-sector m
- Page 25 and 26: Sources and management of uncertain
- Page 27 and 28: Prioritizing through defining/manag
- Page 29 and 30: Summary • There is an ongoing nee
Cost<br />
Low<br />
High<br />
A commercial-sector model <strong>for</strong> prioritization:<br />
Portfolio management<br />
Inputs<br />
Metrics<br />
Low<br />
High<br />
Probability of success (POS)<br />
(Bubble area is proportional to NPV)<br />
POS<br />
(risk)<br />
Costs<br />
Value<br />
Probability of technical &<br />
regulatory success<br />
(PTRS)<br />
Commercialization risk<br />
Development costs<br />
Commercialization,<br />
including cost of goods<br />
sold (COGs)<br />
Net present value (NPV)<br />
(discounted cash flow)<br />
“Strategic value”<br />
21
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