Coordinating Internationally to Observe the Global Ocean for Climate
Coordinating Internationally to Observe the Global Ocean for Climate
Coordinating Internationally to Observe the Global Ocean for Climate
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<strong>Coordinating</strong> <strong>Internationally</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>Observe</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Ocean</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Climate</strong><br />
Second GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium<br />
Sidney Thurs<strong>to</strong>n, Ph.D.<br />
International Coordina<strong>to</strong>r, NOAA <strong>Climate</strong> Program Office<br />
National <strong>Ocean</strong>ic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA<br />
April 15, 2008<br />
Tokyo, Japan
Critical Themes<br />
• There is a lot more low frequency variability in <strong>the</strong> ocean than we'd realized and continuous<br />
sampling <strong>for</strong> many decades is needed <strong>to</strong> get decent estimates of long term trends.<br />
• Interannual <strong>to</strong> decadal ocean variability is going <strong>to</strong> affect society much more strongly than<br />
climate change over <strong>the</strong> next few decades. IPCC wants <strong>to</strong> have a component on decadal<br />
projection <strong>for</strong> AR5...<strong>the</strong>se model runs will depend strongly on ocean initial conditions.<br />
• Satellites simply cannot do <strong>the</strong> moni<strong>to</strong>ring job of <strong>the</strong> world’s oceans. The need <strong>for</strong> in situ<br />
observations is critical. Much of <strong>the</strong> critical climate <strong>for</strong>ecasting in<strong>for</strong>mation comes from <strong>the</strong><br />
subsurface ocean...carbon, heat, salinity, sea level contributions, overturning<br />
circulations...also things <strong>the</strong> satellites cannot moni<strong>to</strong>r. The same <strong>for</strong> ecosystem and<br />
biogeochemistry variables<br />
• The operational and climate communities have been doing Observing System Sensitivity<br />
Experiments (OSSE) work <strong>to</strong> evaluate <strong>the</strong> GCOS/UNFCCC/GEO ocean plan and present<br />
conclusions are that <strong>the</strong> plan continues <strong>to</strong> be <strong>the</strong> minimum needed, with clear cases <strong>to</strong> be<br />
made <strong>for</strong> enhancements, Engagement by new Member Nations and closer collaborations.<br />
• One Final key point <strong>to</strong> keep in mind is that GEOSS is an “end-<strong>to</strong>-end” concept, meaning that<br />
it is not just about data, but <strong>the</strong> delivery of useful in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>for</strong> meaningful decision<br />
making. NOAA is adopting this approach <strong>for</strong> global ocean observations, as you will see, and<br />
we encourage o<strong>the</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> consider ways <strong>to</strong> pursue this.
Wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Watches, warnings,<br />
floods, hurricanes,<br />
Wea<strong>the</strong>r Radio...<br />
<strong>Ocean</strong><br />
Coral reefs, tides,<br />
currents, buoys,<br />
marine sanctuaries,<br />
estuaries, diving, spills<br />
Satellites<br />
Real-time imagery,<br />
environmental,<br />
geostationary and<br />
polar satellites<br />
Fisheries<br />
Protecting marine mammals,<br />
sea turtles, habitats,<br />
statistics, economics,<br />
en<strong>for</strong>cement<br />
<strong>Climate</strong><br />
El Niño & La Niña, global<br />
warming, drought, climate<br />
prediction, archived wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />
data, paleoclima<strong>to</strong>logy<br />
Research<br />
Environmental labs, air<br />
quality, atmospheric<br />
processes, climate and<br />
human interactions<br />
Coasts<br />
Coastal services &<br />
products, Great Lakes,<br />
coastal zone<br />
management<br />
Charting &<br />
Navigation<br />
Nautical & navigational<br />
charts, mapping, remote<br />
sensing, safe navigation
International Objectives<br />
• Optimize Cost-effective resource sharing <strong>for</strong> Shiptime,<br />
instrumentation, CPU time, etc.<br />
• Enhance Regional Capacity and Training <strong>for</strong> Socio-economic<br />
Benefits<br />
• Eliminate Gaps and Overlap Redundancies<br />
• Coordinate Joint Implementation<br />
• Ensure Free, Open and Timely Access <strong>to</strong> Data
End User Requirements<br />
• <strong>Climate</strong>:<br />
• Operational Forecast<br />
Centers<br />
• International Research<br />
Programs<br />
• Major Scientific<br />
Assessments<br />
• System designed <strong>to</strong> meet<br />
climate requirements but<br />
also supports:<br />
• Wea<strong>the</strong>r prediction<br />
• <strong>Global</strong> and coastal ocean<br />
prediction<br />
• Marine hazards warning<br />
• Transportation<br />
• Marine environment and<br />
ecosystem moni<strong>to</strong>ring<br />
• Tide gauge stations<br />
• Drifting Buoys<br />
• Tropical Moored<br />
Buoys<br />
• Profiling Floats<br />
• Ships of Opportunity<br />
• <strong>Ocean</strong> Reference<br />
Stations<br />
• <strong>Ocean</strong> Carbon<br />
Networks<br />
• Arctic Observing<br />
System<br />
• Dedicated Ship<br />
Support<br />
• Data & Assimilation<br />
Subsystems<br />
• Management and<br />
Product Delivery<br />
• Satellites (managed<br />
outside of IOOS)
International Partnerships<br />
are Central<br />
A global system by definition crosses<br />
international boundaries<br />
NOAA’s s contributions are managed in<br />
cooperation with <strong>the</strong> Joint WMO/IOC Technical<br />
Commission <strong>for</strong> <strong>Ocean</strong>ography and Marine<br />
Meteorology (JCOMM) -- presently 68 nations.
The organizing framework is in place<br />
All Six global in situ<br />
implementation programs are<br />
now linked internationally<br />
through WMO/IOC JCOMM<br />
coordination
Tide Gauge<br />
Stations<br />
Surface Drifting<br />
Buoys<br />
Tropical Moored<br />
Buoys<br />
Ships of<br />
Opportunity<br />
Argo Floats<br />
<strong>Ocean</strong> Reference<br />
Stations<br />
Arctic <strong>Ocean</strong><br />
System<br />
<strong>Ocean</strong> Carbon<br />
Network<br />
Dedicated Ship<br />
Time<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012<br />
59<br />
787<br />
510<br />
458<br />
61<br />
2240<br />
1120<br />
458<br />
71<br />
34<br />
1021<br />
83 86 91<br />
27<br />
16<br />
1572<br />
41 42<br />
13<br />
Percent Complete Index:<br />
Total System<br />
9<br />
48<br />
1250<br />
1000<br />
39<br />
19<br />
24<br />
14<br />
41<br />
19<br />
2557<br />
1263<br />
43<br />
17<br />
18<br />
468<br />
85<br />
48<br />
965<br />
68<br />
1741<br />
20<br />
20<br />
6<br />
492<br />
101<br />
48<br />
1000<br />
75<br />
7<br />
21<br />
22<br />
8<br />
492<br />
101<br />
1000<br />
77<br />
21<br />
26<br />
10<br />
113<br />
1125<br />
77<br />
41 43<br />
19<br />
21<br />
14<br />
492<br />
23<br />
59<br />
35<br />
29<br />
11<br />
552<br />
1125<br />
77<br />
133<br />
1125<br />
77<br />
43 43<br />
21<br />
21<br />
Representative miles<strong>to</strong>nes including international contributions<br />
2004 2005 2006<br />
Multi-Year Phased Implementation Plan (NOAA)<br />
15 17<br />
46 4<br />
21<br />
11 14 14<br />
48<br />
47<br />
21 38<br />
123<br />
23<br />
42<br />
35<br />
13<br />
552<br />
72<br />
23<br />
42<br />
35<br />
15<br />
552<br />
81<br />
2013 2014<br />
145<br />
1125<br />
77<br />
21<br />
23<br />
42<br />
35<br />
17<br />
552<br />
158<br />
58 63 67 70 72<br />
1294 1258 1250 1250 1375 1375 1375 1375 1375<br />
1125<br />
97 103 112 112 115 117 118 119<br />
41<br />
19<br />
3055<br />
41<br />
19<br />
43 43<br />
77<br />
43 45 45<br />
21<br />
23<br />
42<br />
35<br />
18<br />
552<br />
89 98<br />
Goal<br />
170<br />
84<br />
1375<br />
1125<br />
131<br />
3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000<br />
1500<br />
1500<br />
59 59 60<br />
1500<br />
1500<br />
1500<br />
1500<br />
1500<br />
89<br />
51<br />
23<br />
1500<br />
50 51 52 55 58 87<br />
64<br />
31<br />
34<br />
37<br />
31<br />
73<br />
42<br />
37 37<br />
18<br />
882<br />
100<br />
Real-time Stations,<br />
Initial GCOS Subset<br />
Number of buoys<br />
Number of moorings<br />
High resolution & frequently<br />
repeated lines occupied<br />
Number of floats<br />
Number of observa<strong>to</strong>ries<br />
and ocean reference stations<br />
Ice buoys, drifting and<br />
moored stations, transects<br />
Repeat Sections completed,<br />
one inven<strong>to</strong>ry per 10 years<br />
Days at sea (NOAA contribution)<br />
International System<br />
NOAA Contributions<br />
Base Budget<br />
FY 10 Request<br />
Additional Resources Needed<br />
55 57<br />
55 56 59 6059<br />
6059<br />
64 65 66 67 68 100% Requirement<br />
Current Programming<br />
2006 2007 2008<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012<br />
2013 2014<br />
Goal<br />
3/17/08
Japan Marine-Earth Science and Technology<br />
Center (JAMSTEC)<br />
and Institute of Observational Research <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>Global</strong> Change (IORGC)
US and Japan Tropical<br />
Moored Buoys
US Japan Argo Deployments
A Schematic Diagram of <strong>the</strong> IOD Influence<br />
on <strong>the</strong> Summer Conditions in <strong>the</strong> Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Hemisphere
IOGOOS/CLIVAR Indian <strong>Ocean</strong><br />
Observing System (IndOOS)<br />
Emphasis on ocean,<br />
but will provide surface<br />
met data as well<br />
Mooring Array<br />
Argo floats 3°x 3°<br />
Drifters 5°x 5°<br />
Carbon/hydro cruise<br />
High density XBT<br />
Frequently repeated XBT<br />
~20 real-time tide<br />
gauges <strong>for</strong> IOTWS<br />
Enhanced XBT lines <strong>to</strong> moni<strong>to</strong>r<br />
Indonesian Throughflow, inflow <strong>to</strong><br />
western boundary, Java upwelling and<br />
10°S <strong>the</strong>rmocline ridge<br />
Regional mooring arrays
Strategy <strong>for</strong> Indian <strong>Ocean</strong><br />
Moored Buoy Array<br />
• Basin scale, tropical upper<br />
ocean (500 m) focus.<br />
• Arabian Sea, Bay of<br />
Bengal, Eq. Waveguide,<br />
Thermocline ridge (5°-10°S),<br />
subtropical subduction, Java<br />
upwelling.<br />
• Does not sample western<br />
boundary currents, ITF,<br />
coastal zones.<br />
• Design supported by<br />
numerical model observing<br />
system studies.<br />
Designed by <strong>the</strong> CLIVAR/GOOS Indian <strong>Ocean</strong> Panel<br />
http://eprints.so<strong>to</strong>n.ac.uk/20357/01/IOP_Impl_Plan.pdf
Challenges: Ship Time<br />
Requirements:<br />
• ≥ 140 days per year <strong>to</strong> maintain full array<br />
• Must be available routinely and with<br />
regularity<br />
• Assumes 1-year mooring design lifetime<br />
and annual servicing cruises<br />
*Actual sea days in 2006: involves more than<br />
just mooring work
India’s Ministry of<br />
Earth Sciences (MoES)
RV Sagar Kanya Cruise<br />
Oc<strong>to</strong>ber-November 2004, 2006, 2007<br />
• National Institute <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>Ocean</strong>ography (NIO) and NOAA-<br />
PMEL<br />
• 3 ATLAS & 1 ADCP Mooring 1.5°S,<br />
0°, 1.5°N along 80.5°E<br />
• ATLAS enhanced with current<br />
meters, salinity, rainfall, SW; in<br />
addition, LW & atmospheric pressure<br />
on central mooring<br />
• Expect <strong>to</strong> continue and expand with<br />
0<br />
Indian (NIO, NIOT, DOD/NCAOR,<br />
-5<br />
etc) and o<strong>the</strong>r institutions.<br />
-10<br />
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100<br />
Latitude (°N)<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
TAO moorings<br />
OOS moorings<br />
Longitude (°E)<br />
INDIA<br />
ADCP<br />
Proposed locations of <strong>the</strong> PMEL TAO and ADCP moorings (red dots)<br />
along with <strong>the</strong> existing Indian OOS mooring locations (blue open circles).<br />
Also proposed are <strong>the</strong> hydrographic stations between 2°N and 2°S<br />
at 0.5° interval along 80.5°E.
Goa India, Western Indian<br />
<strong>Ocean</strong> Workshop
Overview Of MoES-NOAA Partnership<br />
<strong>for</strong> Earth Observations<br />
and Earth Sciences<br />
• Based on Science Drivers & Societal Applications<br />
• Broad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)<br />
– Purpose and Objectives<br />
– Scope of Cooperative Activities<br />
• RAMA Implementing Arrangement (IA)<br />
– Responsibilities<br />
– Principals
Deployment Plan with Ministry of Earth<br />
Sciences <strong>for</strong> 2008
Indonesia’s s Ministry of Marine and Fisheries<br />
(DKP) and Agency <strong>for</strong> Assessment and<br />
Application of Technology (BPPT)
APEC <strong>Ocean</strong> Ministerial MEETING (AOMM-2)<br />
Bali, Indonesia September 2005<br />
• 20 APEC <strong>Ocean</strong> Ministers Met in<br />
Kuta Bali<br />
• “Our Coast, Our <strong>Ocean</strong>… an<br />
Action Plan <strong>for</strong> Sustainability”<br />
• “Bali Action Plan”<br />
• DKP-NOAA Ministerial Bilateral<br />
Discussions<br />
• NOAA-DKP Letter of Intent<br />
Signed
Bali Indonesia PANGEA Workshop<br />
June 2006
Bandung Indonesia September 2006<br />
• Fisheries Applications<br />
of <strong>Ocean</strong> Data<br />
• Modeling and<br />
Assimilation<br />
• Bandung Institute of<br />
Technology
RANET Infrastructure Development Workshop<br />
Bali September 2007<br />
Chlorophyll<br />
Sea Surface Temperature
NOAA’s s 2008 Investment<br />
in Regional <strong>Ocean</strong> Observations<br />
ATLAS <strong>Climate</strong> & DART Tsunami Moorings<br />
Indonesian Throughflow Moni<strong>to</strong>ring<br />
X<br />
X<br />
X<br />
X
US/Indonesia Moorings on JCOMMOPS<br />
WebSite
South Africa Wea<strong>the</strong>r Service<br />
• Broached Partnership<br />
During IOP-4 4 in<br />
Pre<strong>to</strong>ria April 2007<br />
• Scoping Workshop<br />
November 2007
<strong>Ocean</strong> Acidification<br />
Since <strong>the</strong> beginning of <strong>the</strong> industrial age, <strong>the</strong> pH and CO 2 chemistry<br />
of <strong>the</strong> oceans (ocean acidification) have been changing because of<br />
<strong>the</strong> uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 by <strong>the</strong> oceans. These changes in pH<br />
and carbonate chemistry may have serious impacts on open ocean and<br />
coastal marine ecosystems.<br />
400<br />
8.38<br />
375<br />
8.33<br />
8.28<br />
CO 2<br />
350<br />
8.23<br />
pH<br />
325<br />
8.18<br />
8.13<br />
300<br />
8.08<br />
275<br />
8.03<br />
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020<br />
Year
Predictions of <strong>Ocean</strong> Acidification and<br />
<strong>the</strong> effects on coral reef calcification<br />
Coral Reef<br />
calcification<br />
• 1765 Adequate<br />
• 2000 Marginal<br />
• 2100 Low<br />
Calcification<br />
rates in <strong>the</strong><br />
tropics may<br />
decrease by<br />
30% over <strong>the</strong><br />
next century<br />
After Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)
Observing System Challenges<br />
NOAA<br />
Missions<br />
Programs<br />
& Services<br />
(10’s)<br />
Observing<br />
Systems<br />
(~100)<br />
Observing<br />
Parameters<br />
(100’s)<br />
Moni<strong>to</strong>ring &<br />
Prediction<br />
Stewardship<br />
Wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />
<strong>Climate</strong><br />
Charting<br />
Fisheries<br />
Mgmt<br />
Homeland<br />
Security<br />
…<br />
Precipitation<br />
<strong>Ocean</strong> Salinity<br />
Solar Radiation<br />
Sea Surface<br />
Temperature<br />
Sea Height<br />
S<strong>to</strong>ck Assessment<br />
Shoreline<br />
Aerosols<br />
…
Multiple Dimensions of <strong>the</strong><br />
Problem<br />
Stakeholder Requirements<br />
Observing<br />
Systems<br />
Buoys<br />
Radar<br />
Satellite<br />
Environmental Parameters
Temporal & Geospatial<br />
Complexity<br />
Temporal<br />
Characteristics<br />
T3<br />
T2<br />
T1<br />
Geospatial<br />
Characteristics
The NOSA Conceptual Framework<br />
Support<br />
Owner<br />
Larger<br />
System<br />
is controlled by<br />
Observation<br />
Control System<br />
supported<br />
by<br />
owned<br />
by<br />
part of<br />
provides data directly <strong>to</strong><br />
located<br />
at<br />
Opera<strong>to</strong>r<br />
Plat<strong>for</strong>m /<br />
Station<br />
Location<br />
operated by<br />
is<br />
situated on<br />
Observing<br />
System<br />
Sensing<br />
Element<br />
contains<br />
is a<br />
provides<br />
data <strong>to</strong><br />
measures<br />
Environmental<br />
Parameter<br />
Data Handling<br />
System<br />
< drives<br />
provides<br />
info <strong>to</strong><br />
User<br />
Stakeholder<br />
is type<br />
of<br />
has<br />
Fixed<br />
Mobile<br />
Sensor<br />
Human<br />
characterizes<br />
Stakeholder<br />
Requirement<br />
Space<br />
Air<br />
Ground<br />
<strong>Ocean</strong><br />
Space<br />
Air<br />
Ground<br />
<strong>Ocean</strong><br />
Environmental<br />
Phenomenon<br />
< drives<br />
Basic Service<br />
Requirement<br />
< drives
Prospectus: Enhanced Planning and Coordination<br />
of <strong>Ocean</strong> Observations are Needed <strong>for</strong> GEOSS<br />
Asia-Pacific Region<br />
• Jointly Coordinate National Plans<br />
• Assess User Requirements<br />
• Assess Capabilities & Resources<br />
• Coordinate Applications, Assimilation and<br />
Modelling<br />
• Coordinate and Share Resources
“<br />
“Pacific-Indian <strong>Ocean</strong><br />
Observations <strong>for</strong> Applications”<br />
TIOOA<br />
(Eight Co-Chairs)<br />
Capabilities<br />
Subgroup<br />
User Requirements<br />
Subgroup<br />
Resource<br />
Coordination<br />
Working<br />
Group<br />
Data Management<br />
Working Group<br />
Applications of<br />
Data <strong>for</strong> Society<br />
Working Group<br />
<strong>Ocean</strong><br />
Observations<br />
Working Group<br />
Modelling/<br />
Assimilation<br />
Working Group<br />
Joint Strategic<br />
Planning<br />
Working Group
Concluding Remarks<br />
• Sustainable capacity building fosters both an increase in<br />
observations while developing <strong>the</strong> socio-economic applications<br />
of <strong>the</strong> data<br />
• We have been successful in incorporating end-<strong>to</strong><br />
<strong>to</strong>-end<br />
observational data and in<strong>for</strong>mation in<strong>to</strong> GEOSS. Still, <strong>the</strong><br />
observation data being collected <strong>to</strong>day is just a fraction of what<br />
could be available through data sharing, collaboration, and<br />
leveraging each o<strong>the</strong>rs’ investments. We need <strong>to</strong> have vision.
Concluding Remarks<br />
• The ocean/meteorological community is already <strong>the</strong><br />
ambassador <strong>for</strong> enhanced integrated observing<br />
programs <strong>to</strong> save lives, protect property, and support<br />
sustainable development. We must now reach beyond<br />
our existing networks <strong>to</strong> health, <strong>to</strong>urism, agriculture and<br />
o<strong>the</strong>r ministries as ambassadors <strong>for</strong> achieving results <strong>for</strong><br />
society across economic sec<strong>to</strong>rs and national boundaries.<br />
• No one country can achieve GEO benefits alone. Thus,<br />
we ask that you reach out within your own country and<br />
with o<strong>the</strong>r countries <strong>to</strong> become participants in GEO.
Thank You<br />
NOAA Office of <strong>Climate</strong> Observation (OCO)<br />
Sidney.Thurs<strong>to</strong>n@NOAA.gov