Coordinating Internationally to Observe the Global Ocean for Climate

Coordinating Internationally to Observe the
Global Ocean for Climate
Second GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium
Sidney Thurston, Ph.D.
International Coordinator, NOAA Climate Program Office
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA
April 15, 2008
Tokyo, Japan

Critical Themes
• There is a lot more low frequency variability in the ocean than we'd realized and continuous
sampling for many decades is needed to get decent estimates of long term trends.
• Interannual to decadal ocean variability is going to affect society much more strongly than
climate change over the next few decades. IPCC wants to have a component on decadal
projection for AR5...these model runs will depend strongly on ocean initial conditions.
• Satellites simply cannot do the monitoring job of the world’s oceans. The need for in situ
observations is critical. Much of the critical climate forecasting information comes from the
subsurface ocean...carbon, heat, salinity, sea level contributions, overturning
circulations...also things the satellites cannot monitor. The same for ecosystem and
biogeochemistry variables
• The operational and climate communities have been doing Observing System Sensitivity
Experiments (OSSE) work to evaluate the GCOS/UNFCCC/GEO ocean plan and present
conclusions are that the plan continues to be the minimum needed, with clear cases to be
made for enhancements, Engagement by new Member Nations and closer collaborations.
• One Final key point to keep in mind is that GEOSS is an “end-to-end” concept, meaning that
it is not just about data, but the delivery of useful information for meaningful decision
making. NOAA is adopting this approach for global ocean observations, as you will see, and
we encourage others to consider ways to pursue this.

Weather
Watches, warnings,
floods, hurricanes,
Weather Radio...
Ocean
Coral reefs, tides,
currents, buoys,
marine sanctuaries,
estuaries, diving, spills
Satellites
Real-time imagery,
environmental,
geostationary and
polar satellites
Fisheries
Protecting marine mammals,
sea turtles, habitats,
statistics, economics,
enforcement
Climate
El Niño & La Niña, global
warming, drought, climate
prediction, archived weather
data, paleoclimatology
Research
Environmental labs, air
quality, atmospheric
processes, climate and
human interactions
Coasts
Coastal services &
products, Great Lakes,
coastal zone
management
Charting &
Navigation
Nautical & navigational
charts, mapping, remote
sensing, safe navigation

International Objectives
• Optimize Cost-effective resource sharing for Shiptime,
instrumentation, CPU time, etc.
• Enhance Regional Capacity and Training for Socio-economic
Benefits
• Eliminate Gaps and Overlap Redundancies
• Coordinate Joint Implementation
• Ensure Free, Open and Timely Access to Data

End User Requirements
• Climate:
• Operational Forecast
Centers
• International Research
Programs
• Major Scientific
Assessments
• System designed to meet
climate requirements but
also supports:
• Weather prediction
• Global and coastal ocean
prediction
• Marine hazards warning
• Transportation
• Marine environment and
ecosystem monitoring
• Tide gauge stations
• Drifting Buoys
• Tropical Moored
Buoys
• Profiling Floats
• Ships of Opportunity
• Ocean Reference
Stations
• Ocean Carbon
Networks
• Arctic Observing
System
• Dedicated Ship
Support
• Data & Assimilation
Subsystems
• Management and
Product Delivery
• Satellites (managed
outside of IOOS)

International Partnerships
are Central
A global system by definition crosses
international boundaries
NOAA’s s contributions are managed in
cooperation with the Joint WMO/IOC Technical
Commission for Oceanography and Marine
Meteorology (JCOMM) -- presently 68 nations.

The organizing framework is in place
All Six global in situ
implementation programs are
now linked internationally
through WMO/IOC JCOMM
coordination

Tide Gauge
Stations
Surface Drifting
Buoys
Tropical Moored
Buoys
Ships of
Opportunity
Argo Floats
Ocean Reference
Stations
Arctic Ocean
System
Ocean Carbon
Network
Dedicated Ship
Time
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011 2012
59
787
510
458
61
2240
1120
458
71
34
1021
83 86 91
27
16
1572
41 42
13
Percent Complete Index:
Total System
9
48
1250
1000
39
19
24
14
41
19
2557
1263
43
17
18
468
85
48
965
68
1741
20
20
6
492
101
48
1000
75
7
21
22
8
492
101
1000
77
21
26
10
113
1125
77
41 43
19
21
14
492
23
59
35
29
11
552
1125
77
133
1125
77
43 43
21
21
Representative milestones including international contributions
2004 2005 2006
Multi-Year Phased Implementation Plan (NOAA)
15 17
46 4
21
11 14 14
48
47
21 38
123
23
42
35
13
552
72
23
42
35
15
552
81
2013 2014
145
1125
77
21
23
42
35
17
552
158
58 63 67 70 72
1294 1258 1250 1250 1375 1375 1375 1375 1375
1125
97 103 112 112 115 117 118 119
41
19
3055
41
19
43 43
77
43 45 45
21
23
42
35
18
552
89 98
Goal
170
84
1375
1125
131
3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000
1500
1500
59 59 60
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
89
51
23
1500
50 51 52 55 58 87
64
31
34
37
31
73
42
37 37
18
882
100
Real-time Stations,
Initial GCOS Subset
Number of buoys
Number of moorings
High resolution & frequently
repeated lines occupied
Number of floats
Number of observatories
and ocean reference stations
Ice buoys, drifting and
moored stations, transects
Repeat Sections completed,
one inventory per 10 years
Days at sea (NOAA contribution)
International System
NOAA Contributions
Base Budget
FY 10 Request
Additional Resources Needed
55 57
55 56 59 6059
6059
64 65 66 67 68 100% Requirement
Current Programming
2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014
Goal
3/17/08

Japan Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Center (JAMSTEC)
and Institute of Observational Research for
Global Change (IORGC)

US and Japan Tropical
Moored Buoys

US Japan Argo Deployments

A Schematic Diagram of the IOD Influence
on the Summer Conditions in the Northern Hemisphere

IOGOOS/CLIVAR Indian Ocean
Observing System (IndOOS)
Emphasis on ocean,
but will provide surface
met data as well
Mooring Array
Argo floats 3°x 3°
Drifters 5°x 5°
Carbon/hydro cruise
High density XBT
Frequently repeated XBT
~20 real-time tide
gauges for IOTWS
Enhanced XBT lines to monitor
Indonesian Throughflow, inflow to
western boundary, Java upwelling and
10°S thermocline ridge
Regional mooring arrays

Strategy for Indian Ocean
Moored Buoy Array
• Basin scale, tropical upper
ocean (500 m) focus.
• Arabian Sea, Bay of
Bengal, Eq. Waveguide,
Thermocline ridge (5°-10°S),
subtropical subduction, Java
upwelling.
• Does not sample western
boundary currents, ITF,
coastal zones.
• Design supported by
numerical model observing
system studies.
Designed by the CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel
http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/20357/01/IOP_Impl_Plan.pdf

Challenges: Ship Time
Requirements:
• ≥ 140 days per year to maintain full array
• Must be available routinely and with
regularity
• Assumes 1-year mooring design lifetime
and annual servicing cruises
*Actual sea days in 2006: involves more than
just mooring work

India’s Ministry of
Earth Sciences (MoES)

RV Sagar Kanya Cruise
October-November 2004, 2006, 2007
• National Institute for
Oceanography (NIO) and NOAA-
PMEL
• 3 ATLAS & 1 ADCP Mooring 1.5°S,
0°, 1.5°N along 80.5°E
• ATLAS enhanced with current
meters, salinity, rainfall, SW; in
addition, LW & atmospheric pressure
on central mooring
• Expect to continue and expand with
0
Indian (NIO, NIOT, DOD/NCAOR,
-5
etc) and other institutions.
-10
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Latitude (°N)
30
25
20
15
10
5
TAO moorings
OOS moorings
Longitude (°E)
INDIA
ADCP
Proposed locations of the PMEL TAO and ADCP moorings (red dots)
along with the existing Indian OOS mooring locations (blue open circles).
Also proposed are the hydrographic stations between 2°N and 2°S
at 0.5° interval along 80.5°E.

Goa India, Western Indian
Ocean Workshop

Overview Of MoES-NOAA Partnership
for Earth Observations
and Earth Sciences
• Based on Science Drivers & Societal Applications
• Broad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)
– Purpose and Objectives
– Scope of Cooperative Activities
• RAMA Implementing Arrangement (IA)
– Responsibilities
– Principals

Deployment Plan with Ministry of Earth
Sciences for 2008

Indonesia’s s Ministry of Marine and Fisheries
(DKP) and Agency for Assessment and
Application of Technology (BPPT)

APEC Ocean Ministerial MEETING (AOMM-2)
Bali, Indonesia September 2005
• 20 APEC Ocean Ministers Met in
Kuta Bali
• “Our Coast, Our Ocean… an
Action Plan for Sustainability”
• “Bali Action Plan”
• DKP-NOAA Ministerial Bilateral
Discussions
• NOAA-DKP Letter of Intent
Signed

Bali Indonesia PANGEA Workshop
June 2006

Bandung Indonesia September 2006
• Fisheries Applications
of Ocean Data
• Modeling and
Assimilation
• Bandung Institute of
Technology

RANET Infrastructure Development Workshop
Bali September 2007
Chlorophyll
Sea Surface Temperature

NOAA’s s 2008 Investment
in Regional Ocean Observations
ATLAS Climate & DART Tsunami Moorings
Indonesian Throughflow Monitoring
X
X
X
X

US/Indonesia Moorings on JCOMMOPS
WebSite

South Africa Weather Service
• Broached Partnership
During IOP-4 4 in
Pretoria April 2007
• Scoping Workshop
November 2007

Ocean Acidification
Since the beginning of the industrial age, the pH and CO 2 chemistry
of the oceans (ocean acidification) have been changing because of
the uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 by the oceans. These changes in pH
and carbonate chemistry may have serious impacts on open ocean and
coastal marine ecosystems.
400
8.38
375
8.33
8.28
CO 2
350
8.23
pH
325
8.18
8.13
300
8.08
275
8.03
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

Predictions of Ocean Acidification and
the effects on coral reef calcification
Coral Reef
calcification
• 1765 Adequate
• 2000 Marginal
• 2100 Low
Calcification
rates in the
tropics may
decrease by
30% over the
next century
After Feely et al (in press) with Modeled Saturation Levels from Orr et al (2005)

Observing System Challenges
NOAA
Missions
Programs
& Services
(10’s)
Observing
Systems
(~100)
Observing
Parameters
(100’s)
Monitoring &
Prediction
Stewardship
Weather
Climate
Charting
Fisheries
Mgmt
Homeland
Security
…
Precipitation
Ocean Salinity
Solar Radiation
Sea Surface
Temperature
Sea Height
Stock Assessment
Shoreline
Aerosols
…

Multiple Dimensions of the
Problem
Stakeholder Requirements
Observing
Systems
Buoys
Radar
Satellite
Environmental Parameters

Temporal & Geospatial
Complexity
Temporal
Characteristics
T3
T2
T1
Geospatial
Characteristics

The NOSA Conceptual Framework
Support
Owner
Larger
System
is controlled by
Observation
Control System
supported
by
owned
by
part of
provides data directly to
located
at
Operator
Platform /
Station
Location
operated by
is
situated on
Observing
System
Sensing
Element
contains
is a
provides
data to
measures
Environmental
Parameter
Data Handling
System
< drives
provides
info to
User
Stakeholder
is type
of
has
Fixed
Mobile
Sensor
Human
characterizes
Stakeholder
Requirement
Space
Air
Ground
Ocean
Space
Air
Ground
Ocean
Environmental
Phenomenon
< drives
Basic Service
Requirement
< drives

Prospectus: Enhanced Planning and Coordination
of Ocean Observations are Needed for GEOSS
Asia-Pacific Region
• Jointly Coordinate National Plans
• Assess User Requirements
• Assess Capabilities & Resources
• Coordinate Applications, Assimilation and
Modelling
• Coordinate and Share Resources

“
“Pacific-Indian Ocean
Observations for Applications”
TIOOA
(Eight Co-Chairs)
Capabilities
Subgroup
User Requirements
Subgroup
Resource
Coordination
Working
Group
Data Management
Working Group
Applications of
Data for Society
Working Group
Ocean
Observations
Working Group
Modelling/
Assimilation
Working Group
Joint Strategic
Planning
Working Group

Concluding Remarks
• Sustainable capacity building fosters both an increase in
observations while developing the socio-economic applications
of the data
• We have been successful in incorporating end-to
to-end
observational data and information into GEOSS. Still, the
observation data being collected today is just a fraction of what
could be available through data sharing, collaboration, and
leveraging each others’ investments. We need to have vision.

Concluding Remarks
• The ocean/meteorological community is already the
ambassador for enhanced integrated observing
programs to save lives, protect property, and support
sustainable development. We must now reach beyond
our existing networks to health, tourism, agriculture and
other ministries as ambassadors for achieving results for
society across economic sectors and national boundaries.
• No one country can achieve GEO benefits alone. Thus,
we ask that you reach out within your own country and
with other countries to become participants in GEO.

Thank You
NOAA Office of Climate Observation (OCO)
Sidney.Thurston@NOAA.gov