nymtc regional freight plan - New York Metropolitan Transportation ...

A Freight Plan for the NYMTC Region
2.1.2 Change in How Freight Is Moved
The transportation modes by which freight is moved are expected to change little over the
next two decades, as shown in Figure 2.3. This forecast is based solely on economic
changes and assumes nothing is done to divert volumes from mode to mode. Highwaybased
modes are expected to continue to dominate other modes. Trucks carry over
80 percent of regional freight (measured in tons), while rail and air each carry less than
one percent. 1 However, because of the significant increase in freight volume, each mode’s
relative volume also is expected to increase. A comparison of regional and national
modes reveals that the NYMTC region is more heavily skewed to the highway mode and
less to the rail mode than the national average. This is shown in Figure 2.4.
2.1.3 The Commodities That Are Moved
In the NYMTC region, the movement of certain commodities is expected to grow more
quickly than others. Figure 2.5 shows the 10 fastest growing commodities between 1998
and 2025. Three of the 10 – “petroleum or coal products,” “pulp paper or allied products,”
and “lumber and wood products” – traditionally travel by modes other than truck, such as
rail, barge, or pipeline. Five of the 10 – “food or kindred products,” “chemicals or allied
products,” “waste or scrap material,” “primary metal products,” and “rubber or miscellaneous
products” – could be attracted to either rail or marine modes if they are shipped in
sufficient quantities over long enough distances. Only two of the 10 commodities – “secondary
cargoes and drayage” and “clay, concrete, glass and stone products” – are considered
truck-dependent because of the need for “just-in-time” delivery, local availability,
and high sensitivity to transportation costs.
2.1.4 Origins and Destinations
Figures 2.6 and 2.7 show the origins and destinations, respectively, of freight moving into
and out of the NYMTC region. New York State and the NYMTC region itself (intraregional
shipments) are the region’s largest trading partners, followed by the Mid-
Atlantic, Southeast, and Midwest states. The volume of trade with the Western United
States is much lower. This pattern is not forecast to change appreciably in the future.
1
An East-of-Hudson rail mode share of three percent is frequently quoted in public. This figure is
a decade old. Most recent data show the correct figure to be in the one to two percent range.
Reebie Associates, 1998 TRANSEARCH database (0.97 percent); 2000 database (1.68 percent).
Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 2-3