WORLD PRESS TRENDS - World Association of Newspapers

IRELAND
Commentary – Cullen Communications
The Irish economy is heading for a second year of weak growth
as it awaits the long-delayed global economic recovery to get
things moving again.
Last year, sluggish personal spending, weak exports and a fall
in business investment were partly offset by an 8% rise in
government consumption in what was an election year.
However, after winning the general election in May, the twoparty
coalition moved at once to rein in public spending, which
was rising at a totally unsustainable 20% a year.
Last December’s Budget then imposed around €1 billion in new
taxes, mostly in indirect taxes such as VAT and duties on drink
and tobacco. There is also an estimated €500 million in higher
fees and charges for public services. Current government
spending is targeted to grow by only 8%, so fiscal policy is
contractionary this year.
Consumer spending growth has declined steadily since the 2001
peaks and is estimated to have grown by 2.5% in 2002. It
appeared to be still slowing in the early months of 2003 and 3%
growth is probably the best that can be expected. The remarkable
Irish export engine also stalled, as production from the many
ICT (information and communications technology) plants in
Ireland fell by up to 30%. The only growth was in high-value
exports from the pharmaceuticals industry, which makes many
of the world’s best-selling drugs in Ireland. Were it not for this,
exports would be down 6%.
It is unlikely that export growth will recover until there is a
sustained pick-up in the world economy, especially in Europe.
It may be well into 2004, at best, before Ireland sees a noticeable
improvement in trade and investment. For 2003, export growth
is expected to be less than 4%.
A new national pay agreement has been negotiated which gives
rises of 7.5% over the next 18 months. However, in the private
sector, shorter hours and smaller bonuses have cut into actual
earnings. Some firms may be unwilling to pay the national
terms. The impact of indirect tax rises mean inflation will stay
close to 5% for much of this year, so most private sector workers’
incomes may barely keep pace with inflation. Pubic sector
workers will do much better, with payment of a relativity award
totalling 9% on top of the national deal. The cost of this means
other government spending will remain tightly constrained.
The overall economy, measured by gross national product
(GNP) may grow by less than 3% in 2003, following an estimated
2% in 2002. There is some debate whether this means
employment will fall in 2003, for the first time in almost 20 years.
Even if it does not, unemployment is expected to rise to 5%.
This relatively low rate shows that the 1990s boom left Ireland
scope to withstand a couple of slow years, but it needs global
recovery next year.
Circulation
Overall circulation figures for national daily newspapers in 2002
are up on 2001 by 0.6%. Morning newspaper sales grew by 0.7%
and sales of evening papers increased by 0.08%.
Sunday newspaper sales increased by 5%.
Ireland On Sunday joined the National Newspapers of Ireland
in January 2002, bringing NNI members up to twelve.
Advertising
Newspaper advertising revenue generated €254 million for the
year 2002. Spend in daily and Sunday titles contracted by 9%
on 2001. However, advertising expenditure improved in the 2 nd
half of 2002 and was only down 5.9% with the 4 th quarter only
down 3.7% on the corresponding period the year before.
Display advertising accounted for 55.5% of overall revenue
(€254million).
Classified advertising accounted for 44.5% of overall revenue
(€254million).
VAT
The Irish Government announced in December 2002 that the
VAT rate on newspapers would increase by 1% to 13.5% from
1 st January 2003.
Changes in Ownership
Examiner Publications bought the Sunday newspaper, The
Sunday Business Post from the UK publisher, Trinity Mirror. On
a national scale, Examiner Publications now own the Irish
Examiner, the Evening Echo and The Sunday Business Post.
2002 saw the establishment of a new mid-market tabloid aimed
at Dublin. Called the Dublin Daily News, the title places a strong
emphasis on lifestyle and marketing towards the young, brand
conscious readers. It went on sale in March 2003.
Independent Newspapers separated the Saturday edition of the
Evening Herald from the Monday to Friday editions and called
it the Weekend Herald. Current circulation figures (ABC July to
Dec 02) show sales at 67,233. Weekday sales for the same period
stand at 104,137.
Environment
An Environmental Working Party was established by the
newspaper and newspaper distribution industries in the
Republic of Ireland. The purpose of this party is to find workable
solutions to divert newspaper and magazines from landfill.
Work is ongoing.
Copyright
Newspaper Licensing Ireland Limited (NLI) was established in
2002 for the purpose of licensing companies who photocopy
and/or scan sections or cuttings from the member titles of the
National Newspapers of Ireland (NNI). Companies who
photocopy and/or scan sections or cuttings from NNI titles
without a licence will be deemed to infringe the Copyright and
Related Rights Act 2000.
WORLD ASSOCIATION OF NEWSPAPERS - WORLD PRESS TRENDS 2003 147