Documentation Brochure - Hamburg Summit

Asia in 2015 – Scenarios
Richard Hausmann, Siemens, and Eberhard Sandschneider, German Council on Foreign Relations, outlined their views an Asia´s future
Forecasting the future is difficult,
all the panel-speakers agreed. But
Richard Hausmann, President of Siemens
China, risked three theses, the first
of which most impressively reaffirmed
the Summit’s basic tenor. Economically,
he said, the twenty-first century might
not be Asian, but Asia would play a significant
role. “We will have to make
room for China and India,” he said. And
he left no doubt that “it is something
that will not only happen but also need
to happen because otherwise China will
face big social problems.”
It will be accompanied by powerful
economic changes in the two up and
coming Asian countries. “India and China,
those two mega-countries, will no
longer be the workshop of the world,
they will shift to innovation. That is a
clear goal of the Chinese government,”
Hausmann said. Last not least, both
countries would play a more important
role in world affairs. “I am more on the
optimistic side,” he concluded, “that
growth will go on at least until 2015.”
Although Professor Eberhard Sandschneider
of the German Council on Foreign
Relations agreed with this scenario
he was unable to share the previous
speaker’s optimism. Yes, he said, the
twenty-first century would be a global
world with a strong Asian pole, and the
basis of power would be innovation and
not the army. But the biggest risk would
be to manage stability in the world, “and
therefore I have some doubts about a linear
development.” China was so big
and all options were open. “Whatever
you want to see,” he said, “I will show it
to you.” The West had long ceased to
serve as a model. Gone were the days
when the free market economy and democracy
had been a blueprint for the
world. “In Asia,” Sandschneider said,
“self-confidence is growing faster than
the economy.” Europe was now no more
than a museum. Theo Sommer, editor-at-large
of the German weekly Die
Zeit, underscored this position with a
few sober figures. In 1900 the Europeans
were still 20% of the world’s population.
Today they made up a mere 11%
and in 2015 they would be barely 7%.
“We seem to be a vanishing race,” Sommer
said.
Europe already has a problem today,
the speakers agreed. It has no coordinated
policy to Asia. “China recognises
Europe as an economic power but not
as a political power”, Hausmann said.
And Europe has lost its political innocence
as well as the US. “If we push these
countries to human rights we should
protect them at first”, Professor Sandschneider
noticed.
For all the growing self-assurance
there are some Chinese, like Zhang Yue,
Chairman of Broad Air Conditioning,
who lament the consequences of growing
prosperity, and not just on account
of the serious ecological and social
problems. “People have become very
materialistic,” he complained. “We are a
country of materialists.” People used to
read a book and be happy. Today, under
growing Western influence, he said, “we
consume so we are happy.”