IASPEI - Picture Gallery

IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy
(S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's
Interior
JSS002 Poster presentation 1800
Evaluation of real-time simulation at 2006 and 2007 Kuril Islands Tsunami
Mr. Ikuo Abe
Disaster Control Research Center Tohoku University IASPEI
Fumihiko Imamura
When a tsunami was generated by the Kuril Islands earthquake M=7.9 on November 15, 2006, a
tsunami warning was issued 15 minutes after earthquake shock in Japan, based on the JMA tsunami
warning system. Although a tsunami warning was canceled about 5 hours later, maximum wave heights
of a tsunami at several points were observed after this cancellation, and the damage of fishing boat
such as overturn and sink were reported due to the maximum wave and current in the next morning. If
a season, time and weather condition were different, the damage should be larger. Furthermore, an
earthquake with tsunami occurred at neighboring location of 2006 on January 13, 2007. A warning
continues for six hours and no damage was reported. However, maximum wave heights in the west
coast of Japan were recorded. The sequence of two tsunamis suggests us several problems; accuracy of
quantitative forecasting system, timing of canceling warning, damage on boats by current/vortex, and
less than 10 % of evacuation at communities along the coast. We compiled there problems and issues
in the tsunami warning and evacuation. In order to overcome such a problems, the tsunami warning
system should be improved by taking consideration of evidences and issues in the 2006 and 2007 Kuril
Islands tsunamis. Recently, a performance of computer becomes higher, and we can simulate more
detailed information in a short time. As instance, we evaluated possibility of the real time tsunami
simulation about Kuril Islands tsunami. In its evaluation, we used the information to be provided just
after an earthquake shock, estimating magnitude, location and depth at several time stages, and try to
estimate the errors at each step. As a result, we found that there was uncertainty of around 40% in
initial conditions.
Keywords: realtime simulation, uncertainty, initial conditions