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IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy
(S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's
Interior
JSS002 Poster presentation 1790
Simulation of tsunami propagation in Arabian Sea due to earthquakes in
Makaran: a possible scenario
Dr. Vijay Prasad Dimri
National Geophysical Research Institute, India Director, N.G.R.I., India
Kirti Srivastava, D.Srinagesh
The Makran subduction zone is seismically active and the notable earthquake from this region is the
great earthquake of Mw 8.1 which occurred on 27th November 1945. The unique nature of the Makran
subduction zone is that it has been divided into two segments based on morpho-tectonic features and
the contrasting features in seismicity patterns and the varying rupture histories between the eastern
and western segments. The eastern Makran has experienced large thrust earthquakes and continue to
experience small to moderate sized thrust earthquakes whilst the western Makran has no established
historical records of any large earthquake in the historic times or the modern instrumentation. The
absence of notable interplate seismicity in western Makran could be due to varying alternatives like the
plate boundary is locked or the subduction is a seismic in nature. In view of the alternating hypothesis
for the occurrence of great earthquakes along the 900 km long Makran subduction zone we have
carried out a simulation study to assess the potential of a Tsunami hazard along the west coast of India
by considering different sources for the above region. The 1945 earthquake was used in simulating the
tsunami and estimating the height of the Tsunami at various gauge locations and its arrival time at
these gauges. The significant results from this study show that the Tsunami wave heights at different
gauge locations in the west coast of India vary from 0.2-0.8 m. However, if the wave travels onto the
land the heights of the Tsunami wave would be 8-10 times larger than the estimated gauge height. We
have also analyzed the potential of Tsunami hazard due to an earthquake in the locked western Makran
and estimated the wave heights at different gauge locations on the West coast of India.
Keywords: makran, tsunami, wave height