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IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy
(S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's
Interior
JSS002 Oral Presentation 1762
Central Kuril Earthquake and Tsunami of 15 November 2006: Pre-event
geophysical field survey and post-event seismicity
Dr. Evgueni Kulikov
Russian Academi of Sciences Tsunami lab, Shirshov Institute of Oceanology IASPEI
L.I. Lobkovsky, V.B. Baranov, A.I. Ivaschenko, E.A. Kulikov
Following the catastrophic 2004 Sumatra earthquake and global tsunami, seismic zones around
thePacific Oceanwere thoroughly examined based on the seismic-gap theory. TheCentral Kurilseismic
gap of about 500 km was defined as the zone of a highest risk of a possible catastrophic event. The last
major earthquake in this zone was in 1780, while the southwest and northeast regions of this zone are
bordered by the 1918 and 1915 earthquake source areas, respectively. The point of main concern was
the northeastern shelf ofSakhalinIslandin theSeaofOkhotsk, the area of active oil and gas exploration.
To examine the Central Kuril seismic gap zone, two detailed marine geophysical expeditions were
conducted on the R/V Michail Lavrentiev by theRussianAcademyof Sciences in 2005 and 2006. The main
purposes of these expeditions were examination of the tectonic structure of the seismic gap,
identification of cross-shelf fault areas, and estimation of the possible source area of the expected
earthquake. Based on results of these expeditions, numerical modeling of several scenarios involving
possible major tsunamis was undertaken. The earthquake of 15.11.2006 occurred very close to the
expected source region. Parameters of the actual tsunami were also similar to that predicted, except
that fortunately the NW coast of SakhalinIslandwas sheltered from the waves by the Simushir coast.
Simulated tsunami wave forms were found to agree very closely with the open-sea island and deepocean
DART records.
Keywords: tsunami, seismic gap