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IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy structures. AS/NZS 1170.2 (2002) Structural design actions, Part 2: Wind actions, Australian/New Zealand Standard, 2002. Walker, G.R., G.F. Reardon, and E.D. Jancauskas, (1988): Observed effects of topography on the wind field of Cyclone Winifred, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 28, 79-88 Keywords: cyclone, wind hazard, impact

IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy (S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior JSS003 Oral Presentation 1865 The operational forecasting of the tide and surge over Irish waters Dr. Shiyu Wang Ray Mcgrath, J. A. Hanafin, Tido Semmler During the last century, and especially in recent decades, serious flooding events have occurred over coastal ocean areas. Generally, coastal flooding and coastal erosion are issues with serious economic and social impacts. It is essential to establish a warning or prediction system to minimize the risk to lives and property. Over Ireland, flooding is associated mainly with heavy rainfall which can lead to enhanced river-flow and over-topping of river banks. However, coastal flooding events are often more serious, particularly those associated with storm surge. In this study, the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) of Rutgers University was run to simulate a strong tide and surge event over Irish waters. The meteorological forcing data are taken from ERA40 data. The model is evaluated against tidal gauge data and satellite altimeter data for short and long term simulation. The results show the high resolution ROMS model can simulate the basic tide and the surge very well, especially in the south Irish Sea. On the basis of evaluation study, a preliminary storm surge forecasting system was set up for Irish waters. The model is driven by hourly meteorological forcing fields from the HIRLAM forecasting system used by Met ireann. The preliminary results show that this system has very good forecasting capability for predicting surge in the first 24-36 hours. Keywords: storm surge, roms, hirlam

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