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IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy (S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior JSS003 Oral Presentation 1863 Early warning decision support system based geo-information technology and spatial planning for earthquakes reduction and assessment in Syria Mr. Hussain Saleh Department of Civil Engineering Ghent University IAPSO Georges Allaert With the rapid development of economic construction and urbanization in , highly dense population, infrastructure and traffic, caused a lot of troubles to the main cities. Great change becomes to integrated management and more to eco-environmental safety construction, especially to the prevention for disasters destroyed structure as earthquake. It is not possible to completely avoid earthquakes, but the sufferings can be minimized by creating proper awareness of these disasters and its impact through developing a suitable early warning system, disaster preparedness and management of disasters for accelerating the delivery of knowledge and advanced geo-information technology to the end users. In addition, several factors can help in reducing these impacts such as working directly with complex urban areas in building capacity, institutional development and information sharing, and influencing policy. Therefore, a cost effective and feasible disaster information system must depend on an effective spatial planning in which disaster occurrence is considered explicitly as a prime parameter. The main innovative aspect of this developed system is the integration of the geographical and environmental data collection and data management tools with simulation and decision tools for earthquake reduction and assessment. This system is linked with a large, open, and executable database which has been created with robust data access and data mining capabilities. This centralized database, which is available via the internet, is a valuable source of information for policy making such as earthquake hazards and impacts, transportation, public facilities, emergency services, elevation, land use/zoning and high resolution imagery. Based on historical earthquake hazard records and socioeconomic database of Syrian cities, the hazard risk index, the vulnerability index, and the response ability index can be established, and then the earthquake effect index will be obtained. These assessment indexes with corresponding digital maps, can be used to measure earthquake risk management performance and to analyze the spatial features of seismic risk reduction in urban areas. This system, which is connected to an internet browser for transferring local capability to each client, is interactive tool that allows decision makers and specialized members to view useful information and maps for various earthquake scenarios. This will assist city planners and public safety officials to understand the spatial context in which multiple hazards impact urban environments. Also, this will support disaster-planning processes, comprehensive disaster risk assessment, reduction, and management activities. This paper constitutes a crucial step in integrated strategies of earthquake at complex urban areas by elucidating how artificial intelligence and long-term sustainable spatial planning could be efficiently introduced in the design process of these strategies to create early warning that can potentially provide vital information that is quicker, better, and at lower cost for reducing earthquake damage in . Another innovative direction of this research will show how a novel approach parallelisation and hybridisation of dynamic optimisation methods coupled with local search procedures can effectively; simplify handling data, minimize the execution time, and facilitate the design modelling approach based on simulation and optimisation process. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis using anticipatory process will be performed in order to handle robustness and simulate an appropriate behaviour of the design parameters in real-time Keywords: complexurbanarea, hazardriskindex, spatialplanning

IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy (S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior JSS003 Oral Presentation 1864 Spatial forecasting of tropical cyclone wind hazard and impact for emergency services: example utilising tropical cyclone Larry. Mr. Bob Cechet Risk Research Group Geoscience Australia Craig Arthur, Mark Edwards, Krishna Nadimpalli, Babu Divi Tropical Cyclone Larry crossed the Australian coastline near the far north Queensland town of Innisfail in March, 2006. At landfall, the eye of Tropical Cyclone Larry extended about 20 to 25 kilometres and a vessel sheltering in the South Johnstone River to the east of Innisfail recorded winds gusting to 225 km/h while gusts as high as 294 km/h were recorded on the nearby peaks of the Bellenden Ker mountain range (1450 metres) and 187 km/h was recorded at the Ravenshoe wind farm (about 75 kilometres from the coast) as the weakening cyclone moved inland. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was able to forecast the cyclone track 24 hours prior to landfall with a good indication of its size, intensity and speed of movement. No spatial hazard or impact tool for determining local wind gust hazard and impact is currently available in the Australian region. It is conceivable that post-impact assessment analysis tools could be utilised, forced by a forecast of the cyclone characteristics, to supply spatial information for emergency planning (i.e. determine worst affected [severe wind] regions based on direction, topographic and prognostic cyclone characteristics). Tropical Cyclone Larry was classified as a midget cyclone because of the limited range of its destructive winds. Furthermore, coastal communities were not exposed to cyclonic winds and airborne debris for long periods as the cyclone moved relatively quickly at landfall. Low tides at the time also ensured there was no significant storm surge. Tropical Cyclone Larry impacted the coast at both high lateral speed and at low tide, causing only wind-related damage. This presentation outlines the methodology employed for spatial wind hazard assessment in the Tropical Cyclone Larry impact zone. In this process the regional maximum gust wind speed was estimated using the Aon Re cyclone model and the local wind adjustment factors were adapted from the Australian/New Zealand wind loadings standard (AS/NZS 1170.2, 2002) utilising modifications that enabled the process to be undertaken in a computational framework on a GIS platform. The impact of severe wind varies considerably between equivalent structures located at different sites due to the local roughness of the upwind terrain, the shielding provided by upwind structures and topographic factors. Wind multipliers quantify how local effects adjust the regional wind speeds (defined as open terrain at 10 m height) at each location. The local wind effects were evaluated and mapped, and this information has been compared with the damage assessed for engineering structures (residential, commercial & industrial). This analysis formed part of a post-impact assessment however the utility of this information for both emergency planning and building standards will also be demonstrated. A body of literature exists on the topic of boundary layer flow over small-scale topography. It is interesting, and extremely relevant to this investigation, that one of the very few studies that has explicitly considered the effects of topography on surface wind speeds in land-falling tropical cyclones, examines a Category 3 cyclone that passed through Innisfail in the 1980s. Walker et al. (1988) deals with the landfall of Cyclone Winifred on the far North Queensland coast of in February 1986, with a track similar to Cyclone Larry but approximately 20 kilometres to the north. During Cyclone Winifred the region of maximum winds was closer to the township of Innisfail than for Cyclone Larry. In this assessment, we apply to the whole Tropical Cyclone Larry impact region similar wind engineering principles to Walker et al. (1988) and derive a geospatial assessment of the maximum gust wind speeds. In addition, and with the aid to heuristically-derived damage (vulnerability) functions, we determine the damage in a spatial sense and compare it with the post-event field survey of 3000

IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy<br />

(S) - <strong>IASPEI</strong> - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's<br />

Interior<br />

JSS003 Oral Presentation 1864<br />

Spatial forecasting of tropical cyclone wind hazard and impact for<br />

emergency services: example utilising tropical cyclone Larry.<br />

Mr. Bob Cechet<br />

Risk Research Group Geoscience Australia<br />

Craig Arthur, Mark Edwards, Krishna Nadimpalli, Babu Divi<br />

Tropical Cyclone Larry crossed the Australian coastline near the far north Queensland town of Innisfail<br />

in March, 2006. At landfall, the eye of Tropical Cyclone Larry extended about 20 to 25 kilometres and a<br />

vessel sheltering in the South Johnstone River to the east of Innisfail recorded winds gusting to 225<br />

km/h while gusts as high as 294 km/h were recorded on the nearby peaks of the Bellenden Ker<br />

mountain range (1450 metres) and 187 km/h was recorded at the Ravenshoe wind farm (about 75<br />

kilometres from the coast) as the weakening cyclone moved inland. The Australian Bureau of<br />

Meteorology was able to forecast the cyclone track 24 hours prior to landfall with a good indication of its<br />

size, intensity and speed of movement. No spatial hazard or impact tool for determining local wind gust<br />

hazard and impact is currently available in the Australian region. It is conceivable that post-impact<br />

assessment analysis tools could be utilised, forced by a forecast of the cyclone characteristics, to supply<br />

spatial information for emergency planning (i.e. determine worst affected [severe wind] regions based<br />

on direction, topographic and prognostic cyclone characteristics). Tropical Cyclone Larry was classified<br />

as a midget cyclone because of the limited range of its destructive winds. Furthermore, coastal<br />

communities were not exposed to cyclonic winds and airborne debris for long periods as the cyclone<br />

moved relatively quickly at landfall. Low tides at the time also ensured there was no significant storm<br />

surge. Tropical Cyclone Larry impacted the coast at both high lateral speed and at low tide, causing only<br />

wind-related damage. This presentation outlines the methodology employed for spatial wind hazard<br />

assessment in the Tropical Cyclone Larry impact zone. In this process the regional maximum gust wind<br />

speed was estimated using the Aon Re cyclone model and the local wind adjustment factors were<br />

adapted from the Australian/New Zealand wind loadings standard (AS/NZS 1170.2, 2002) utilising<br />

modifications that enabled the process to be undertaken in a computational framework on a GIS<br />

platform. The impact of severe wind varies considerably between equivalent structures located at<br />

different sites due to the local roughness of the upwind terrain, the shielding provided by upwind<br />

structures and topographic factors. Wind multipliers quantify how local effects adjust the regional wind<br />

speeds (defined as open terrain at 10 m height) at each location. The local wind effects were evaluated<br />

and mapped, and this information has been compared with the damage assessed for engineering<br />

structures (residential, commercial & industrial). This analysis formed part of a post-impact assessment<br />

however the utility of this information for both emergency planning and building standards will also be<br />

demonstrated. A body of literature exists on the topic of boundary layer flow over small-scale<br />

topography. It is interesting, and extremely relevant to this investigation, that one of the very few<br />

studies that has explicitly considered the effects of topography on surface wind speeds in land-falling<br />

tropical cyclones, examines a Category 3 cyclone that passed through Innisfail in the 1980s. Walker et<br />

al. (1988) deals with the landfall of Cyclone Winifred on the far North Queensland coast of in February<br />

1986, with a track similar to Cyclone Larry but approximately 20 kilometres to the north. During Cyclone<br />

Winifred the region of maximum winds was closer to the township of Innisfail than for Cyclone Larry. In<br />

this assessment, we apply to the whole Tropical Cyclone Larry impact region similar wind engineering<br />

principles to Walker et al. (1988) and derive a geospatial assessment of the maximum gust wind<br />

speeds. In addition, and with the aid to heuristically-derived damage (vulnerability) functions, we<br />

determine the damage in a spatial sense and compare it with the post-event field survey of 3000

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