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IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy
(S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's
Interior
JSS003 Oral Presentation 1850
Web Based Global System for loss assessment due to strong earthquakes
Dr. Nina Frolova
Seismological Center of IGE, Rus. Acad. of Sci. Senior Scientific Researcher, Ph.D. IASPEI
Valery Larionov, Jean Bonnin
According to the recommendations of IDNDR Working Groups on scientific and technological aspects of
Early Warning Systems (EWS) in order to fulfill a risk reduction functions such Systems should not be
interpreted as technical instruments for detecting, forecasting impeding event and issuing alert and,
therefore, they should consists of four sub-systems: a warning sub-system, a risk reduction sub-system,
a preparedness sub-system and a communication sub-system. A risk reduction sub-system may allow
potential damage extent and social loss due to scenario earthquakes to be generated and/or estimate
expected consequences due to just occurred event in emergency mode. Risk reduction sub-system may
be designed and developed for individual decision makers usage. Another variant is to develop the webbased
sub-system, which may be accessible to all interested decision makers and experts at
international, regional, national, local or urban level. The paper describes the framework of the global
web-based risk reduction sub-system, its mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution,
damage to buildings and structures, number of fatalities and injuries, as well as its data bases on build
environment and population distribution. The sub-system is now under development within the NATO-
Russia Project Analysis and Synthesis of Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment Methodologies for
Prediction and Prevention of Catastrophes. Extremum family systems developed during the last ten
years are prototypes of the new web-based open tool, which will be accessible to any registered enduser.
The tool will provide possibility of distributed data bases usage and to update the data bases on
regional attenuation laws, vulnerability functions of different elements at risk by joint efforts. In the
case of strong earthquake the Internet conferences may be organized in order to give additional
possibility to experts to take a proper decision about expected damage and loss. One of the principle
advantages of the new web-based sub-system for loss assessment due to strong earthquakes is usage
of common data bases and simulation models, which are updated by joint efforts.
Keywords: web based tool, earthquake consequences