IASPEI - Picture Gallery

IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy
(S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's
Interior
JSS002 Poster presentation 1834
Tsunami modeling; trends, needs, achievements and benefits
Prof. Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner
Civil Engineering Ocean Engineering IAPSO
There are several components of assessment and mitigation of disasters. One of them (for tsunamis) is
numerical modeling. There have been several questions came out for the assessment of tsunami risk in
the oceans and enclosed seas after the most disastrous event of December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean
tsunami. This event caused increasing interests on tsunamis by scientists from different disciplines, and
also interests from general public and decision makers and disaster managers at coastal communities in
local, national and international level. Tsunami modeling is one of the most important tools needed for
assessment of tsunamis, using for warning issues and developing educational and training materials.
Tsunami modeling covers i) mathematical description of the problem with initial and boundary
conditions with proper approximations and assumptions, ii) solutions of the governing equations with
different techniques, iii) simulation, iv) visualization. Beyond these v) analysis of the results, vi)
interpretation of the tsunami parameters, vii) understanding of their effects in the inundation zone, and
viii) developing mitigation measures accordingly and viii) using them for educational and public relation
purposes. There are several issues for achieving the modeling results to be more accurate and useful.
One of the main needs for developments in tsunami modeling is estimating the characteristic
parameters of triggering mechanisms and simulating them in more realistic level. Length of the rupture
segment(s) and width of the ruptured plane(s), strike angle(s) of each segment(s), dip and slip angles,
displacement(s) of the ruptured segment(s) are the main inputs for computation of the co-seismic
tsunami source characteristics (initial water level distribution for the static source). Most of these
parameters can only be estimated by compilation of seismic, geophysical and tidal data some time after
the event. Since numerical modeling is one of the essential supplementary tools for TEWSs, more
advanced (using parallel processing algorithms and cluster technology), accurate and faster numerical
models must be achieved for the best supplement to well developed TEWSs. Satisfying both i) accurate
(with additional nonlinear terms such as dispersion and much finer grid sizes) and ii) sufficiently faster
numerical modeling for TEWS will need some more time. In the presentation, the stages of tsunami
modeling, new demands such as more accurate for academic purposes or faster for operational
purposes are discussed together with the needs, trends, developments, achievements, and benefits of
tsunami modeling are discussed with examples.
Keywords: modeling, tsunami, warning