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IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy (S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior JSS002 Poster presentation 1826 Modelling Tsunami Inundation in the Gulf of Cadiz - Preliminary Results Mrs. Vnia Lima DEC ISEL IASPEI J M Miranda, M.A. Baptista, M. Olabrieta, L.Otero, P M M Soares, M Gonzalez, E Carreno North East Atlantic European coasts were hit in the past by large, destructive tsunamis. The European Tsunami Catalogue (ETC) includes several large events in the Gulf of Cadiz, generated by moderate and strong magnitude earthquakes. The city of Cadiz suffered severe damage during the 1st November 1755 Lisbon tsunami. The coeval historical information enables extensive evaluation of run in and run up data for the city and harbour of Cadiz. In this study we present the preliminary results of numerical modelling for one of the critical sites in the North Atlantic area. Modelling was performed with COMCOT code, from Cornell University. The simulation domain covers the eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean offshore Morocco and the Gulf of Cadiz, from the most prone tsunami generation area. Three nested grid layers of different resolution (0.008, 0.002 and 0.0005) are incorporated to obtain a good description of bathymetric and topographic effects near shore. Results of the numerical simulations for an event similar to the 1755 earthquake and tsunami are discussed in terms of wave heights, flow depth and maximum velocity. This study was funded by project TRANSFER STREP 37058 UE Keywords: tsunami, waveheight, flowdepth

IUGG XXIV General Assembly July 2-13, 2007 Perugia, Italy (S) - IASPEI - International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior JSS002 Poster presentation 1827 Tsunami hazard estimation for the southern Kuril Island coast Dr. Victor Kaystrenko Russian Academy of sciences Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics The Russian Far Eastern coast is a one of the most tectonically active margin of the Pacific area with frequent tsunami occurrence. After catastrophic tsunami in November 1952 that destroyed the most part of the Severo-Kurilsk town, up till now more than 40 tsunami were recorded on the Far East coast of our country, the height being more than 5 meters in 7 cases, and in 1952, 1963, 1969, 1994 the wave heights being up to 15 meters in some points. Tsunami hazard distribution along the Russian coast is not homogeneous and tsunamis are most frequent events on the Southern Kuril Island coast. It is known that a sequence of earthquakes exceeding an elected magnitude is really the Poissonian one and its main parameter is the recurrence functionF (h0) which is a mean frequency of tsunamis with height more then elected "threshold" h0. Analysis of the natural data showed that this function depends from two parameters: F(h0) = f exp ( -h0/H*). Parameter H* is calibrate (characteristic) tsunami height depended from the coastal point of tsunami observation, and f is the regional tsunami frequency, that varying very slowly along the Pacific coast and can be considered as a regional constant. Using the least square method these parameters have been calculated from the historical tsunami data set. Finally, characteristic tsunami heights H* were evaluated for 18 points on the Southern Kuril Island coast. Tsunami frequency for this region is f = 0.17 1/year and its standard deviation is σ(ln(f) = 0.13. These parameter allowed to estimate tsunami risk for this region. The work was supported by the grants of the Russian Foundation of Basic Research 05-05-64733 andFEB RAS I # 06-I-ON3-106. Keywords: tsunami, hazard, risk

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