climate change effects on predator/prey interactions: how can we ...

climate change effects on predator/prey interactions: how can we ... climate change effects on predator/prey interactions: how can we ...

25.01.2015 Views

Research on ong>effectsong> of ong>climateong> ong>changeong> Models worldwide attempt to model animal distributions on predicted habitat maps Predictions: 1. Few species go extinct a. unsuitable conditions for persistence b. out competed by invading/pioneering species 2. Many species will dramatically contract in distribution a. increased fragmentation b. reduced resilience in population dynamics (more vulnerable to extinction with perturbations) 3. Others will extend their range a. usually at the expense of another species (e.g. the alpine chipmunk being displaced by lodgepole chipmunk) Community composition is going to ong>changeong>

Animals adapt on a species level Summary of Grinnell resampling small mammal survey (Moritz et al. 2008) Range Expansion Range Contraction No Change Number of species 3 spp Higher 2 spp Lower 6 spp Higher 1 spp Lower 12 spp 1 spp Both 2 spp Both • No pattern or mechanism as to who’s range contracted or expanded • Each small mammal guild is represented in all categories • ALL of these species are important prey items in the Sierra Nevada

Animals adapt <strong>on</strong> a species level<br />

Summary of Grinnell resampling small<br />

mammal survey (Moritz et al. 2008)<br />

Range<br />

Expansi<strong>on</strong><br />

Range<br />

C<strong>on</strong>tracti<strong>on</strong><br />

No Change<br />

Number of<br />

species<br />

3 spp Higher<br />

2 spp Lo<strong>we</strong>r<br />

6 spp Higher<br />

1 spp Lo<strong>we</strong>r<br />

12 spp<br />

1 spp Both<br />

2 spp Both<br />

• No pattern or mechanism as to who’s range c<strong>on</strong>tracted or expanded<br />

• Each small mammal guild is represented in all categories<br />

• ALL of these species are important <strong>prey</strong> items in the Sierra Nevada

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