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P. Matos et al. 2010. Can lichen functional diversity be a good indicator of macroclimatic conditions 69 Figure 1: Location of the three areas studied. Figure 2: Relative functional diversity LDV related to water stress tolerance in response to the macroclimate variables – precipitation, real evapotranspiration and insolation. Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
E.S. Meier et al. 2010. Projections of shifts in species distributions 70 Projections of shifts in species distributions: assessing the influence of macro-climate and local processes Eliane S. Meier * , Felix Kienast & Niklaus E. Zimmermann Land Use Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland Abstract It is currently unclear, whether tree species will be able to keep pace with the ongoing and likely accelerating shift in climate. Here, we estimated the influence of changing macro-climate and local processes on shifts in species distributions. First, we evaluated tree co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on current and future species distributions using species distribution models. Second, we combined these models with migration rates from a process-model and a GIS path cost analysis, to estimate key processes influencing tree migration rates and to predict more realistic shifts in large-scale tree re-distributions. Our results showed, that biotic interactions mainly limited species distributions towards favorable growing conditions, while climate was directly limiting primarily where biotic interactions were low. Landscape fragmentation was further strongly limiting migration. In conclusion, this may lead to considerable time lags in range shifts and re-adjustment to new conditions during climate change, especially for late succession species. Keywords: biotic interactions, macro-climate, Europe, niche-based model, stress-gradient hypothesis. 1. Introduction Macroclimate is hypothesized to play a key role in large-scale species distributions (Thuiller, Araújo and Lavorel 2004, Woodward 1987, Whittaker, Willis and Field 2001), and thus, the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable habitats for many species considerably (Root et al. 2003, Parmesan and Yohe 2003). This expectation is consistent with observations during Holocene climate changes, where species adapted their spatial distribution more or less rapidly to the changing climate conditions (Davis and Shaw 2001). For on-going and future climate change, however, it remains unclear whether species will be able to keep pace with accelerating rates of change (Iverson, Schwartz and Prasad 2004). On the one hand, new dispersal limitations emerge, such as anthropogenic landscape-fragmentation that may cause the newly emerging suitable habitats to be insufficiently connected. On the other hand, the expected global warming is predicted to be one or more orders of magnitude faster than past climate change events (Solomon and Kirilenko 1997, Etterson and Shaw 2001) and the influence on range shifts by small-scale processes limiting species establishment, survival and dispersal, such as biotic interactions (e.g. inter-specific competition, facilitation) or disturbances were so far often ignored in analysis on large-scale species responses to climate change (Caplat, Anand and Bauch 2008, Brooker et al. 2007). According to the 'stress-gradient hypothesis', * Corresponding author. Tel.: +41 44 7392 560 - Fax: +41 44 7392 215 Email address: eliane.meier@wsl.ch Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
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Landscapes Forest and Global Change
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The contributions to this volume ha
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Table of contents Foreword Preface
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Fine-scale mapping of High Nature V
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Characterization of a Maculinea alc
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Urban tree inventory and socio-econ
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xiii Foreword Twenty years ago, Dr.
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Section 1 Scaling in landscape anal
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V. Cortes et al. 2010. Environmenta
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D. S. de Ron et al. 2010. Habitat s
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B. Bożętka 2010. Recent relations
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B. Bożętka 2010. Recent relations
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T. Curt & J. Pausas 2010. Are chang
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R.A Fleming et al. 2010. Forest man
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R.A Fleming et al. 2010. Forest man
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P.C. Goebel et al. 2010. How import
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L.R. Iverson et al. 2010. Merger of
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T.-C. Lin et al. 2010. Immediate ef
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K. L. Martin & P.C. Goebel 2010. Im
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G.M. Pastur et al. 2010. Indirect e
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E.W Saragih et al. 2010. Effects of
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L.R.P. Williamson et al. 2010. Anth
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N. Zurbriggen et al. 2010. Modeling
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Section 4 Biodiversity conservation
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Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
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Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
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C. Carvalho-Santos 2010. Fine-scale
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I. Catalano et al. 2010. Wood macro
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Exten
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Asses
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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V. Etemad & N. Avani 2010. Investig
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A.E. Eycott et al. 2010. The impact
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E. Fernández-Núñez et al. 2010.
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N. Fracassi & D. Somma 2010. Partic
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J. Hartter et al. 2010. Fortresses
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M.B. Horta et al. 2010. Landscape S
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Sara Marques et al. 2010. Impact of
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M.G.C. Martins & J. Aranha 2010. El
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M.G.C. Martins & J. Aranha 2010. El
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J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Modeling lan
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R.S. Moro & T.K. Pereira 2010. Eval
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R.S. Moro & C.H Rocha 2010. A metho
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V. Núñez et al. 2010. Landscape i
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M.C.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Contr
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M.C. Silva et al. 2010. Using Busin
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T.N. Terra & R.F dos Santos 2010. L
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E. Tetetla-Rangel et al. 2010. Rela
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M. Tsibulnikova 2010. Economic esti
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M. Akbarzadeh & E. Kouhgardi 2010.
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J. Beldade & T. Panagopoulos 2010.
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M.L. Leite & J.S.V. Filho2010. Anal
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M.L.Leite & J.S.V. Filho 2010. Iden
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M. Ortega et al. 2010. Monitoring v
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G. Puddu et al. 2010. Landscape tra
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H.R. Ratsimba et al. 2010. Multi-sc
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M.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Charact
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J. Superson et al. 2010. The defore
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H. Viana & J. Aranha 2010. Assessin
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H. Viana & J. Aranha 2010. Mapping
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Section 6 Tools of landscape assess
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N. Avani et al. 2010. Investigation
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J.C. Azevedo et al. 2010. Spatial d
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V. Caboun 2010. New classification
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M. Deconchat et al. 2010. Identific
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J. Gaspar et al. 2010. Visibility a
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A.M. Geraldes 2010. Landscape runof
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J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Assessing
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M.L Porto et al. 2010. Naturalness
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M.L Porto et al. 2010. Naturalness
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M. Rehor & V. Ondracek 2010. Applic
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J. Russell et al. 2010. Developing
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Section 7 Management and sustainabi
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P. Angelstam & M. Elbakidze. 2010.
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M. Castro et al. 2010. Relationship
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L.A.M. da Silva & E. Shimanki 2010.
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E. Volkova 2010. The regional analy
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Section 9 Symposia
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Z.L. Urech & J.P. Sorg 2010. Taking
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Measures of landscape structure as
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E. Penot 2010. Socio-economic diagn
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Network theory to conserve and reco
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B. Terrones et al. 2010. Detecting
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M. Kolström et al. 2010. Is it pos
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J.P. Nunes et al. 2010. Impacts of
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Management and conservation of Medi
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P.M. Fernandes et al. 2010. Testing
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E. Andrieu et al. 2010. When forest
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D. Geni et al. 2010. A framework fo
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IUFRO Unit 8.01.02 Landscape Ecolog
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