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Management and conservation of Mediterranean forest landscapes
P.M. Fernandes et al. 2010. Testing the fire paradox: is fire incidence in Portugal affected by fuel age 705 Testing the fire paradox: is fire incidence in Portugal affected by fuel age Paulo M. Fernandes 1,2* , Carlos Loureiro 1,2 , Marco Magalhães 2 & Pedro Ferreira 2 1 Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas (CITAB), UTAD, Apartado 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal 2 Departamento de Ciências Florestais e Arquitectura Paisagista, UTAD, Apartado 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal Abstract A well-known fire paradox states that fire exclusion and the resulting fuel accumulation leads to larger fires. To test this assumption for Portugal we analyzed fire frequency through survival analysis for the period of 1975-2008. The median fire-free interval is relatively short (12-16 years) but the hazard of burning increases exponentially with time since fire, denoting a fuel-age dependent system. Time-dependency did not change with fire size class, implying that young fuels delay landscape fire spread even under extreme meteorological conditions. Fire size and maximum fire size tend respectively to be less variable and lower where fire recurrence is higher. Hence, fuels exert a short-term but effective control on landscape fire spread. Our findings show that crown fire regimes can be time-dependent and support fuel treatments as key component of fire management. Keywords: burn probability, fire regime, shrubland, Mediterranean-type ecosystems 1. Introduction Controversy concerning the environmental drivers of wildfire incidence has gained momentum in recent years. If fire occurrence is time-dependent then exogenous factors such as weather will play a relatively minor role on fire incidence, which to a great extent will be controlled by the existing mosaic of fuel ages (Minnich 1983; Minnich and Chou 1997). This can be expressed as a “fire paradox” where fire suppression efforts will lead to increasingly larger fires as fuel builds up in the landscape. However, the opposing view is now prevailing in the literature and defends that fuel age is unrelated to the likelihood of wildfire in crown-fire ecosystems such as conifer forests and Mediterranean-type shrublands, particularly under extremely dry and windy weather conditions (Keeley et al. 1999; Moritz et al. 2004; Keeley and Zedler 2009). Because the question is difficult to be addressed empirically, more and more studies resort to simulation modeling (e.g. Finney et al. 2007; Cary et al. 2009). Fire frequency analysis has been proposed to judge whether vegetation is fire-adapted or not (Polakow et al. 1999) and has been used to better understand and describe how the fire return interval and fuel age affect fire incidence (Moritz 2003; Moritz et al. 2004; O’Donnell et al. 2008; Van Wilgen et al. 2010). Obviously, this debate has profound political implications, namely on the recognition (or not) of fuel management as a valuable component of fire management. While extreme fire seasons significantly affected the country in 2003 and 2005, extensive tracts of Portugal are under a relatively frequent fire regime, especially in mountains and plateaus * Corresponding author. Tel.: +351 259350885 - Fax: +351 259350480 Email address: pfern@utad.pt Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
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Landscapes Forest and Global Change
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The contributions to this volume ha
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Table of contents Foreword Preface
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Fine-scale mapping of High Nature V
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Characterization of a Maculinea alc
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Urban tree inventory and socio-econ
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xiii Foreword Twenty years ago, Dr.
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Section 1 Scaling in landscape anal
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V. Cortes et al. 2010. Environmenta
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D. S. de Ron et al. 2010. Habitat s
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B. Bożętka 2010. Recent relations
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S.F. Chen et al. 2010. A physiotope
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V.D. de Campos & S M. Carvalho 2010
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N.S. Evseeva & Z.N. Kvasnikova 2010
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N.S. Evseeva & Z.N. Kvasnikova 2010
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S. Frank et al. 2010. A regionally
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M. García et al. 2010. The effect
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M. García et al. 2010. The effect
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S. Gholami et al. 2010. Spatial pat
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T. Höbinger et al. 2010. Impact of
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P. Matos et al. 2010. Can lichen fu
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E.S. Meier et al. 2010. Projections
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E.S. Meier et al. 2010. Projections
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H. Moutahir et al. 2010. Applicatio
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H. Moutahir et al. 2010. Applicatio
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C. Palaghianu 2010. The use of Voro
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F. Peña-Cortés et al. 2010. Spati
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F.M. Rabenilalana et al. 2010. Mult
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A. Ruskule et al. 2010. Patterns of
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E. Sayad 2010. Nitrogen retrancloca
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E. Sayad 2010. Nitrogen retrancloca
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G. Zhelezov 2010. Evaluation of the
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Section 3 Disturbances in changing
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A. Altamirano et al. 2010. Human-ca
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A. Altamirano et al. 2010. Human-ca
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T. Curt & J. Pausas 2010. Are chang
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R.A Fleming et al. 2010. Forest man
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R.A Fleming et al. 2010. Forest man
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P.C. Goebel et al. 2010. How import
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L.R. Iverson et al. 2010. Merger of
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T.-C. Lin et al. 2010. Immediate ef
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K. L. Martin & P.C. Goebel 2010. Im
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G.M. Pastur et al. 2010. Indirect e
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E.W Saragih et al. 2010. Effects of
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L.R.P. Williamson et al. 2010. Anth
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N. Zurbriggen et al. 2010. Modeling
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Section 4 Biodiversity conservation
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Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
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Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
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C. Carvalho-Santos 2010. Fine-scale
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I. Catalano et al. 2010. Wood macro
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Exten
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Asses
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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V. Etemad & N. Avani 2010. Investig
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A.E. Eycott et al. 2010. The impact
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N. Fracassi & D. Somma 2010. Partic
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J. Hartter et al. 2010. Fortresses
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M.B. Horta et al. 2010. Landscape S
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Sara Marques et al. 2010. Impact of
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M.G.C. Martins & J. Aranha 2010. El
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M.G.C. Martins & J. Aranha 2010. El
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J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Modeling lan
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R.S. Moro & T.K. Pereira 2010. Eval
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R.S. Moro & C.H Rocha 2010. A metho
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M.C.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Contr
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M.C. Silva et al. 2010. Using Busin
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E. Tetetla-Rangel et al. 2010. Rela
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M. Tsibulnikova 2010. Economic esti
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M. Akbarzadeh & E. Kouhgardi 2010.
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J. Beldade & T. Panagopoulos 2010.
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M.L. Leite & J.S.V. Filho2010. Anal
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M.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Charact
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J. Gaspar et al. 2010. Visibility a
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J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Assessing
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A. Matos et al. 2010. Economic valu
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A. Migliozzi et al. 2010. Land-use
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M.L Porto et al. 2010. Naturalness
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M. Rehor & V. Ondracek 2010. Applic
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J. Russell et al. 2010. Developing
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Section 7 Management and sustainabi
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E. Schimanski 2010. The importance
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Section 9 Symposia
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Z.L. Urech & J.P. Sorg 2010. Taking
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Measures of landscape structure as
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E.R. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Multi
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Page 682 and 683: S. Decout et al. 2010. Connectivity
Page 688 and 689: S. Joost et al. 2010. GEOME. Toward
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Page 700 and 701: B. Terrones et al. 2010. Detecting
Page 706 and 707: M. Kolström et al. 2010. Is it pos
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Page 718 and 719: J.P. Nunes et al. 2010. Impacts of
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Page 738 and 739: D. Geni et al. 2010. A framework fo
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Page 756 and 757: J.M. Rey Benayas 2010. Restoration
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