Landscapes Forest and Global Change - ESA - Escola Superior ...

J. Russell et al. 2010. Developing models and processes to aid decision support for integrated land management
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ILM and CEA. The plan would demonstrate that it was feasible to produce an ILM/CEA
structure, models could be developed or adapted, and outcomes could be tested over time.
2. Methodology
In 1995, Millar Western developed permanent vegetation sample plots that focused on tree
growth, as well as free-to-maneuver flying space, bat crevices, tree lichen cover and downed
woody debris. Additional research included creel censuses, thinning trials to evaluate tree
growth and habitat use, tree retention in clearcut stands, animal surveys and habitat supply
model verification. In 1997, expert panels were assembled to develop models for: landscape
projection under various climate change scenarios; coarse and fine filter habitat supply and;
surface water quantity and quality. Research outcomes and the mechanisms developed would be
incorporated into a timber supply model as constraints against the allowable cut.
2.1 Landscape Projection
The Landscape group used the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1 (IPCC 2001) to predict
impacts on the forest of climate change, namely a doubling in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations,
and an increase of 7ºC in temperature and 8% in precipitation between 1999 and 2100 (Millar
Western Forest Products 2007). To project climate conditions, the CCSR-NIES Global
Circulation Model (Ozawa et al. 2001) was selected. To downscale climate data, local weather
was adjusted with global circulation model data. The FORECAST model (Kimmins et al. 1999)
was used to predict forest growth and the Athabascan Plains Landscape model was used to
predict forest succession changes (Yamasaki et al. 2008). Nine scenarios were tested and
biodiversity and productivity were evaluated within these landscape projections (Yamasaki et al.
2008). The study area sits at the northern limit of the Aspen Parkland ecoregion and research
has suggested that climate change may result in the conversion of forested land to aspen
parkland (Hogg and Hurdle 1995). Therefore this analysis included prediction of how much
forested land would shift to aspen parkland under climate change Scenario A1 (IPCC 2001).
Daily fire weather indices were calculated once weather streams under historical and climate
change conditions were obtained. The Fire Behavior Prediction System (Forestry Canada Fire
Danger Group 1992) was used to derive daily values for the Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Build Up
Index and Fire Weather Index for the period 1 January 1961 to 31 December 1990 and the
corresponding 30-year period under climate change. This fire record, which corresponds to the
30-year baseline most commonly used in climate research, serves as the basis for fire modelling
with the Athabascan Plains Landscape Model. To simulate 200 years of fires, the model cycles
through this 30-year record almost seven cycles. Fire duration, extent, frequency and seasonality
were all statistically modelled as dependents of the Fire Behavior Prediction indices above and
annual, seasonal and daily measures of temperature, precipitation and wind. A link detected
among fire occurrence, weather and human population was also included in the analysis.
As an example of a dominant non-forestry related human disturbance in the FM area, patterns of
oil and gas development were analyzed and future developments were simulated. The number of
current wells was determined from the forest inventory. It was also possible to generate a time
series of number of new well sites annually, and the area each represents. This was also
completed for pipelines and seismic lines that are projected to being developed in the FM area.
2.2 Habitat Supply
Coarse filter analysis was divided into two areas within the Biodiversity Assessment Project
(BAP): ecosystem diversity and landscape configuration (Van Damme et al. 2003). Ecosystem
diversity analysis assumes that silvicultural practices will modify the distribution of ecosystems
Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology
Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.)
2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.