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J.S.V. Filho & M.L. Leite 2010. Simulation of climate scenarios for the region of Campos Gerais, State of Parana, Brazil
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occurrence of regular frosts in winter. The Araucaria occurs in regions with annual average
temperatures ranging from 12°C to 18°C, supporting frost until -10°C, characterized therefore
as a species of temperate climate. The climate of the region of Campos Gerais, Parana,
according to Köppen may occur variably in some places, from subtropical (Cfa) to temperate
(Cfb), with an average temperature of the coldest month below 18°C and average temperature in
warmest month above 22°C, with frequent frosts in winter and trend of concentration of
precipitation during the summer months, but without a dry season (IAPAR 2000). According to
Salazar et. al 2007, the geographic distribution of vegetation and its relationship to climate, has
been object of analysis through models of biomes or biogeographic models, which in turn use it
as the central paradigm assumption that climate has a dominant control on distribution of
vegetation, simulating potential vegetation, based on some climatic parameters like temperature
and precipitation. In this context, on the premise that the crops may be considered relevant
probabilistic variables and depend on climatic factors during the growing season, it becomes
important to the development of simulation models that generate synthetic data of climate, in
order to reproduce, probabilistically, the occurrence of climatic components. Several climatic
data generators are cited in the literature, in order to simulate sets of climate data, and create
climate scenarios in order to provide alternative methods for measuring the risk of climate
uncertainty that is related to alternative managements of enterprises conducted in
agroecosystems (Virgens Filho 2001). Given the climatic transition projected by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that will affect natural resources,
economics and societies around the world, actually unknown in magnitude, this study aimed to
simulate climate scenarios based on possible climate change in the Region of Campos Gerais,
Parana State, Brazil.
2. Methodology
This research was conducted at the State University of Ponta Grossa (UEPG), Parana State,
Southern Brazil, where there were used historical series of climatic data of temperature and
precipitation, obtained from the Instituto Agronômico do Paraná (IAPAR) and the Instituto
Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) as shown in Table 1 for four cities in the region of Campos
Gerais, Parana State (Figure 1). For the simulation of climate scenarios, it was used a beta
version of the Stochastic Generator of Climatic Scenarios PGECLIMA_R, developed by the
Computational and Applied Statistics Laboratory, in UEPG. The scenarios generated for the air
temperature were based on climate projections for 2100, published in 2001 in the Third
Assessment Report of the IPCC, in which its worst scenario is estimated to increase average
global temperature of 5.8ºC and at its best scenario, an average increase of 1.4°C (IPCC 2001).
The scenarios for the simulation of precipitation, were created from the variation of 10% for
each degree Celsius in 2100, as suggested by Pike in 2005. Therefore, as the scenarios of air
temperature were simulated for an increase of 1.4°C and 5.8°C, the average increase in
precipitation was 14% and 58% in the total annual in 2100, for the worst and best climatic
scenario, respectively. The analysis and discussion of the results were based on graphics, which
projected the trend of the next 99 years (2002-2100), for simulated scenarios for temperature
and precipitation.
3. Result
Figure 2 shows the graphics with the trends of annual mean air temperature for the four cities
located in the Campos Gerais region of Parana, and for each site are presented separately, the
worst and best simulated scenarios. It is observed by the simulated trends (gray line), that for
the city of Telêmaco Borba, which has an average annual temperature of 19.5°C in the worst
scenario, the projected average temperature for 2052 was approximately 21.5°C, while close to
year 2100 it is projected to be around 25.6°C. In the best scenario, the temperature values in
Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology
Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.)
2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.