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J.S.V. Filho & M.L. Leite 2010. Simulation of climate scenarios for the region of Campos Gerais, State of Parana, Brazil
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Simulation of climate scenarios for the region of Campos Gerais, State
of Parana, Brazil
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho 1* & Maysa de Lima Leite 2
1
Departamento de Matemática e Estatística, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa,
Brazil
2
Departamento de Biologia Geral, Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, Brazil
Abstract
This study aimed to simulate climate scenarios based on possible change to the region of
Campos Gerais, state of Parana, Brazil. Originally defined as a phytogeographical region, the
Campos Gerais understand the grasslands and savanna parks situated on the edge of the Second
Paraná Plateau. In the forests of Campos Gerais, the Araucaria angustifolia is the main tree
species, occupying portions of the plateau state of Parana whose floristic composition is
strongly influenced by low temperatures and frost occurrence. Thus, using daily weather series,
stochastic climate models were parameterized to simulate the climate scenarios, based on
projections of the IPCC. The results achieved through analysis of graphs, presenting essential
elements for a systematic reflection on the future of the floristic diversity of Campos Gerais,
showed that an environment in the near future may be unfavorable to the development of
species that today fully supplies the forests in this region.
Keywords: simulation, climate scenarios, temperature, precipitation, Araucaria angustifolia.
1. Introduction
The Earth has been undergoing continuous natural oscillations along its evolution, creating new
organizations and changing ecosystems. Among the components that operate in this dynamic
system in itself, the weather is a factor that interferes directly or indirectly in these
transformations, causing instability in the natural land surface and oceans. Thus, as
recommended by Claussen in 2004, it is expected that an important aspect of global climate
change, is their likely impact on natural ecosystems considering that climate influences soil and
biota in the same way that it can also be strongly modulated by biological processes of
vegetation, phytoplankton and other characteristics of the biosphere. Within a bioclimatological
perspective, according to Worbes 2002, in tropical forests, seasonal precipitation regimes or
flooding is described as the major determinants of the seasonality of growth. However, in
subtropical forests, the annual variation of air temperature may have great influence on the
regulation of cambial activity. Originally defined as a phytogeographical region, the Campos
Gerais of Parana understand grasslands and forests galleries or geldings isolates, mixed in a
temperate rainforest, located on the edge of the Second Parana Plateau (Maack 1948). This
forest type can be defined as a mixing of floras from different sources, with typical
phytophysiognomic patterns in a characteristically rainy climatic zone, without direct influence
of the ocean, but with well distributed precipitation throughout the year. According to Roderjan
et al. 2002, forests in Campos Gerais, the Araucaria or Pinheiro-do-Paraná (Araucaria
angustifolia (Bertol.) Kuntze) is the main tree species, occupying portions of the State of Parana
Plateau whose floristic composition is strongly influenced by low temperatures and the
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 (42) 3220 3050
Email address: jvirgens@uepg.br
Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology
Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.)
2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.