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J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Modeling land use/cover change and biodiversity conservation in Mexico 264 than 12 years without primary education; d) proportion of the population speaking an indigenous language; e) proportion of the population living in small settlements (with less than 100 and 2500 inhabitants); f) proportion of population between 20 and 39 years (%), which is expected to be inversely correlated with migration; g) proportion of houses with a cement roof as an index of social welfare; h) the Gini index which measures inequality and ranges theoretically from 0 to 100, where 0 is perfect equality and 100 perfect inequality; i) the mean salary (expressed as the number of minimum wage salaries) and the proportion of the population with less than one and two minimum wage salaries; j) the natural cover area (ha) and the proportion of total area covered by natural cover; k) the mean slope (degrees); and l) the road density (km of road per km 2 ). 3. Result 3.1. LUCC Monitoring Figure 1 and table 1 shows a significant decrease of forest area (except secondary temperate forest) and an increase of crop and pasture lands during both periods. However, rates of change are lower during the more recent period. Figure 1: Areas of the main land cover types in 1993, 2002 and 2007 (km 2 ) Table 1: Rates of changes for the main land cover types Land cover category Area (km 2 ) Change (km 2 /yr) Rate of change (%/yr) 1993 2002 2007 1993-2002 2002-07 1993-2002 2002-07 Arid tropical scrub 571383 558297 554661 -1454 -727 -0.26 -0.13 Crop lands 278424 308592 321597 3352 2601 1.15 0.83 Pasture lands 172278 187587 188964 1701 275 0.95 0.15 Primary Temperate Forest 270432 252891 247707 -1949 -1037 -0.74 -0.41 Primary Tropical Forest 233388 229815 227205 -397 -522 -0.17 -0.23 Secondary Temperate Forest 78021 89028 93987 1223 992 1.48 1.09 Secondary Tropical Forest 116316 99333 93726 -1887 -1121 -1.74 -1.16 3.2. Analysis of drivers Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Modeling land use/cover change and biodiversity conservation in Mexico 265 For the statistical analysis we use only the municipalities with a scrublands or forest area covering at least 500 ha and 30% of the municipality. 2314 municipalities (of a total of 2443) fulfilled this condition and represent more than 96% of the forest and scrub area of the country. Figure 2 shows the rate of deforestation per municipality. Table 2 shows that rate of deforestation and the variation of the conservation index are strongly associated (R = 0.77, p < 0.01) and that both indices are weakly, but significantly, related to some of the indices describing the socio-economic and environmental characteristics of the municipalities. Unexpectedly, population density is negatively correlated with degradation and deforestation during 2002-2007 although the increase of density is related with an increase of deforestation. Indices related with poverty present a positive correlation with deforestation and degradation. No significant correlation was found with the Gini index. Higher slopes and unexpectedly road density tend to reduce the deforestation/degradation. Index Table 2: Spearman correlation between change and municipality characteristics Rate of deforestation* Degradation (Variation of conservation index) * R p R p Population density 2000 (people per km 2 ) -0.04 0.14 -0.05 0.03 Population density 2005 (people per km 2 ) -0.02 0.34 -0.05 0.06 Population density variation 2000-2005 0.11 0.00 0.05 0.05 Settlements density (settlements per km 2 ) -0.07 0.01 -0.06 0.02 Population older than 12 years without primary -0.10 0.00 -0.05 0.06 education (%) Population speaking an indigenous language (%) -0.04 0.07 -0.06 0.02 Population living in settlement of less than 100 -0.02 0.37 0.00 0.97 inhabitants (%) Population living in settlement of less than 2500 -0.09 0.00 -0.05 0.03 inhabitants (%) Population between 20 and 39 years (%) 0.17 0.00 0.06 0.02 Houses with cement roof (%) 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.21 Gini index 0.00 0.95 0.00 1.00 Mean salary (number of minimum salary) 0.13 0.00 0.13 0.00 Population with less than one minimum salary (%) -0.11 0.00 -0.12 0.00 Population with less than 2 minimum salary (%) -0.13 0.00 -0.13 0.00 Natural cover area (ha) 0.23 0.00 0.23 0.00 Natural cover area (%) 0.09 0.00 0.11 0.00 Mean slope (degrees) -0.24 0.00 -0.15 0.00 Road density (km/km 2 ) -0.13 0.00 -0.11 0.00 Rate of deforestation - - 0.77 0.00 * A negative value for the rate of deforestation and degradation indicates recovery Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
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Landscapes Forest and Global Change
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The contributions to this volume ha
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Table of contents Foreword Preface
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Fine-scale mapping of High Nature V
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Characterization of a Maculinea alc
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Urban tree inventory and socio-econ
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xiii Foreword Twenty years ago, Dr.
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Section 1 Scaling in landscape anal
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V. Cortes et al. 2010. Environmenta
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D. S. de Ron et al. 2010. Habitat s
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B. Bożętka 2010. Recent relations
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S.F. Chen et al. 2010. A physiotope
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V.D. de Campos & S M. Carvalho 2010
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N.S. Evseeva & Z.N. Kvasnikova 2010
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N.S. Evseeva & Z.N. Kvasnikova 2010
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S. Frank et al. 2010. A regionally
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M. García et al. 2010. The effect
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M. García et al. 2010. The effect
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S. Gholami et al. 2010. Spatial pat
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P. González-Moreno et al. 2010. Th
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T. Höbinger et al. 2010. Impact of
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P. Matos et al. 2010. Can lichen fu
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E.S. Meier et al. 2010. Projections
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E.S. Meier et al. 2010. Projections
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H. Moutahir et al. 2010. Applicatio
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H. Moutahir et al. 2010. Applicatio
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C. Palaghianu 2010. The use of Voro
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F. Peña-Cortés et al. 2010. Spati
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F.M. Rabenilalana et al. 2010. Mult
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A. Ruskule et al. 2010. Patterns of
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E. Sayad 2010. Nitrogen retrancloca
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E. Sayad 2010. Nitrogen retrancloca
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G. Zhelezov 2010. Evaluation of the
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Section 3 Disturbances in changing
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A. Altamirano et al. 2010. Human-ca
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A. Altamirano et al. 2010. Human-ca
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T. Curt & J. Pausas 2010. Are chang
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R.A Fleming et al. 2010. Forest man
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R.A Fleming et al. 2010. Forest man
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P.C. Goebel et al. 2010. How import
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L.R. Iverson et al. 2010. Merger of
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T.-C. Lin et al. 2010. Immediate ef
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K. L. Martin & P.C. Goebel 2010. Im
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G.M. Pastur et al. 2010. Indirect e
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E.W Saragih et al. 2010. Effects of
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L.R.P. Williamson et al. 2010. Anth
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N. Zurbriggen et al. 2010. Modeling
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Section 4 Biodiversity conservation
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Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
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Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
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C. Carvalho-Santos 2010. Fine-scale
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I. Catalano et al. 2010. Wood macro
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Exten
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Asses
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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V. Etemad & N. Avani 2010. Investig
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V. Etemad & N. Avani 2010. Investig
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E. Tetetla-Rangel et al. 2010. Rela
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M. Tsibulnikova 2010. Economic esti
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M. Akbarzadeh & E. Kouhgardi 2010.
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J. Beldade & T. Panagopoulos 2010.
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Quant
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I. Duarte & F.C. Rego 2010. Land us
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J.S.V. Filho & M.L. Leite 2010. Sim
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F.J. Gómez et al. 2010. Land use c
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M.L. Leite & J.S.V. Filho2010. Anal
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M.L.Leite & J.S.V. Filho 2010. Iden
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M. Ortega et al. 2010. Monitoring v
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G. Puddu et al. 2010. Landscape tra
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H.R. Ratsimba et al. 2010. Multi-sc
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M.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Charact
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M.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Charact
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J. Schaefer-Santos & C. Lingnau 201
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S.M. Scheffer & E. Schimanski 2010.
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J. Superson et al. 2010. The defore
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A.L. Teixido et al. 2010. Impacts o
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H. Viana & J. Aranha 2010. Assessin
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H. Viana & J. Aranha 2010. Mapping
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Section 6 Tools of landscape assess
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N. Avani et al. 2010. Investigation
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J.C. Azevedo et al. 2010. Spatial d
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T. Batista et al. 2010. The third d
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M. Deconchat et al. 2010. Identific
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J. Gaspar et al. 2010. Visibility a
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A.M. Geraldes 2010. Landscape runof
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K. Koschke et al. 2010. Using a mul
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J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Assessing
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A. Matos et al. 2010. Economic valu
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A. Migliozzi et al. 2010. Land-use
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M.L Porto et al. 2010. Naturalness
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M.L Porto et al. 2010. Naturalness
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M. Rehor & V. Ondracek 2010. Applic
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J. Russell et al. 2010. Developing
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Section 7 Management and sustainabi
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M. Castro et al. 2010. Relationship
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M. Elbakidze et al. 2010. Does fore
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E. Schimanski 2010. The importance
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L.A.M. da Silva & E. Shimanki 2010.
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N. Stryamets et al. 2010. Role of n
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E. Volkova 2010. The regional analy
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Section 9 Symposia
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Z.L. Urech & J.P. Sorg 2010. Taking
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Measures of landscape structure as
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Network theory to conserve and reco
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Management and conservation of Medi
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P.M. Fernandes et al. 2010. Testing
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D. Geni et al. 2010. A framework fo
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J.M. Rey Benayas 2010. Restoration
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IUFRO Unit 8.01.02 Landscape Ecolog
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