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N. Zurbriggen et al. 2010. Modeling feedbacks between avalanches and forests under a changing environment 171 Modeling feedbacks between avalanches and forests under a changing environment in the Swiss Alps Natalie Zurbriggen 1,3* , Heike Lischke 1 , Peter Bebi 2 & Harald Bugmann 3 1 Land Use Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland 2 Ecosystem Boundaries, WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland 3 Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems ITES, ETH Zurich, Switzerland Abstract Forest-avalanche feedbacks are important forces shaping subalpine treeline ecotones. Under rapid and drastic environmental change, these feedbacks can develop unexpected dynamics. Merging forest and avalanche models provides a tool to analyze such feedbacks, and to envision management scenarios for protection forests. We modeled and analyzed these feedbacks for Davos (Switzerland), where land abandonment and temperature change are the main drivers of environmental change. We developed a spatially explicit model for avalanche release zones inside forests, based on slope steepness, crown coverage, gap size, and forest type, and incorporated it into the forest-landscape model TreeMig. Preliminary results reveal that (1) TreeMig is sensitive to the proposed changes in disturbance simulation, (2) a simplified vegetation model shows feedback effects with an avalanche subroutine, and (3) the intermediate disturbance hypothesis partly applies to avalanche influence on forests. The merged model TreeMig-Av is presented and scenarios of forest-avalanche interaction under environmental change are interpreted. Keywords: treeline dynamics, avalanches, environmental change, feedback effects, forest landscape models 1. Introduction In subalpine treeline ecotones, avalanches have a strong influence on vegetation dynamics. The influence of the vegetation on avalanche dynamics, however, is often modeled as a binary decision variable excluding potential avalanche release in forested areas. Yet it is well known that avalanches can initiate inside forests, especially in sparsely vegetated forests near the treeline. So far, there have been only few studies analyzing the interactions between forests on avalanches, with focus on long-term forest dynamics (Cordonnier 2008). Modeling avalanches in a forest-landscape model should provide a tool to analyze the future development of forests, avalanches, and their feedbacks, under changing environmental influences. Our goal is to develop a simplified spatially explicit avalanche module, and to implement it in TreeMig (Lischke et al. 2006), a forest-landscape model based on the gap model ForClim (Bugmann 1994). One of the main goals is to analyze simulations of forests interacting with land use change and climate change, under the influence of avalanches as spatially connected disturbances. Previous versions of TreeMig accounted only for single-cell disturbances. Output variables of interest include changes in biomass, species composition, structural composition, avalanche occurrence, etc. Simulating the protection function of forests against avalanches is a * Corresponding author. Tel.: 0041 44 739 2817 - Fax: 0041 44 739 2215 Email address: natalie.zurbriggen@wsl.ch Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
N. Zurbriggen et al. 2010. Modeling feedbacks between avalanches and forests under a changing environment 172 new option in TreeMig, and is the main ecosystem service simulated here, using land use change scenarios in combination with climate change scenarios as input. Snow avalanches are a key disturbance in forest ecosystems in the Swiss Alps, and their interactions with forest dynamics, such as mortality and regrowth, have strong influences on subalpine forests and their ecosystem services. These feedback effects are especially important for the location, spatial patterns, and structure of upper alpine timberlines. Avalanches can start both above and below timberlines, and feedback effects can differ between the two initiation types. While avalanches starting far above timberlines can destroy forests below without being influenced much, avalanches starting below timberlines can be strongly modified by the vegetation. For the avalanche release probability inside forests, stand structure and gap size are important factors in addition to the variables commonly used to predict avalanche release outside of forests, namely topography, weather, and snow conditions (Bebi et al. 2009). Including the vegetation-based variables in an avalanche release module leads to feedback effects between avalanche release probability and the mortality and regenerative success of forests. Yet how these interactions will be affected under scenarios of changing snowpack and forest cover is less clear. Merging forest and avalanche models provides a tool to analyze such feedbacks, and to envision management scenarios for protection forests under climate and landuse change. Due to the spatial connectivity of avalanches, we expect this disturbance type to have a stronger influence on the spatial pattern at treelines than the single-cell disturbances previously simulated in TreeMig. Avalanches are expected to depress treelines to lower altitudes than climate would allow, and to increase fragmentation of the vegetation (Patten et al. 1994), but there are only few attempts at including avalanches in forest-landscape models (Cordonnier et al. 2008). In TreeMig, modeled influences on treelines do not differ from influences on lowland areas, except indirectly via climatic variables and differences in seed availability. Most allometries or processes, such as growth curves, competition for light and space, dispersal, or disturbances, are modeled the same way for all areas. We plan to answer the question of how treelines will develop under environmental change, and how their spatial patterns are influenced by avalanches, by using TreeMig as a tool for scenario development. To achieve this, the model needs to be adapted specifically to include more treeline-relevant factors, and to allow for different processes in different simulation areas. Both growth- and size-related allometries for treelines are improved, and a process-based feedback loop between avalanches and forest regeneration is implemented. 2. Methods 2.1 Avalanche modeling The avalanche module is divided into avalanche release and avalanche flow, each further divided into the respective process inside or outside of forested areas. Three of the resulting four components (release outside forest, flow inside forest, and flow outside forest) are based on the avalanche model RAMMS (Rapid Mass Movements; Christen et al. 2008). The fourth component, avalanche release inside forested areas, was built as a probabilistic module based on regression analysis of historical avalanche data (1985-90) and related forest data (Meyer-Grass and Schneebeli 1992), according to the method used by Bebi et al. (2001). Using only variables that can be calculated from TreeMig output, we performed a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) on the historical avalanche data. The GLM was used to estimate the dependence of the binary avalanche release variable on predictor variables describing the vegetation, in addition to the geophysical and meteorological variables often used for avalanche release prediction outside forested areas (e.g. topography, Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
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Landscapes Forest and Global Change
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The contributions to this volume ha
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Table of contents Foreword Preface
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Fine-scale mapping of High Nature V
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Characterization of a Maculinea alc
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Urban tree inventory and socio-econ
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xiii Foreword Twenty years ago, Dr.
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Section 1 Scaling in landscape anal
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V. Cortes et al. 2010. Environmenta
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M. García et al. 2010. The effect
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H. Moutahir et al. 2010. Applicatio
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IUFRO Unit 8.01.02 Landscape Ecolog
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