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L.R. Iverson et al. 2010. Merger of three modeling approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on trees 139 through the fragmented habitats now existing. We intend to use SHIFT as well to perform ‘experiments’ of landscape manipulation and assisted migration to assess these potential strategies under climate change. We also show the vast differential in outcomes between a low carbon future (PCMlo) and high carbon future (HADhi) with respect to habitats for one species (it is the case for most species), and thus the critical need for a global effort to reduce carbon emissions. References Allen C., Macaladyb A., Chenchounic H., Bachelet D., McDowell N., Vennetier M., Kitzberger T., Rigling A., Breshear D., Hoggi E., Gonzalezk P., Fensham R., Zhangm Z., Castron J., Demidavao N., Lim J.-H., Allard G., Running S., Semerci A. and Cobb N. 2010. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259: 660-684. Cutler D.R., Edwards T.C., Beard K.H., Cutler A., Hess K.T., Gibson J. and Lawler J.J. 2007. Random forests for classification in ecology. Ecology 88: 2783-2792. Davis M.B. 1981. Quaternary history and the stability of forest communities. In West D. C. and Shugart H. H. (eds.), Forest succession: concepts and application, pp. 132-153. Springer-Verlag, New York. Hoegh-Guldberg O., Hughes L., McIntyre S., Lindenmayer D.B., Parmesan C., Possingham H.P. and Thomas C.D. 2008. Assisted colonization and rapid climate change. Science 321: 345 - 346. Iverson L.R., Prasad A.M., Matthews S.N. and Peters M. 2008. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. Forest Ecology and Management 254: 390-406. Iverson L.R., Prasad, A.M. and Schwartz M.W. 1999. Modeling potential future individual treespecies distributions in the Eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus virginiana. Ecological Modelling 115: 77-93. Iverson L.R., Schwartz M.W. and Prasad A.M. 2004. Potential colonization of new available tree species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species. Landscape Ecology 19: 787-799. Nakicenovic N. and others. 2000. IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Pope V.D. 2000. The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model -- HadCM3. Climate Dynamics 16, 123-46. 16: 123-146. Prasad A.M., Iverson L.R. and Liaw A. 2006. Newer classification and regression tree techniques: bagging and random forests for ecological prediction. Ecosystems 9: 181- 199. Schwartz M.W., Iverson L.R. and Prasad A.M. 2001. Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio, USA, using current habitat availability and climatic forcing. Ecosystems 4: 568-581. Schwartz M.W., Iverson L.R., Prasad A.M., Matthews S.N., O and Connor R.J. 2006. Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology 87: 1611-1615. Washington W.M., Weatherly J.W., Meehl G.A., Semtner Jr. A.J., Bettge, T.W., Craig A.P., Strand Jr. W.G., Arblaster J.M., Wayland V.B., James R. and Zhang Y. 2000. Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dynamics 16, 755-74. 16: 755-774. Webb T.I. 1992. Past changes in vegetation and climate: lessons for the future. In Peters R. L. and Lovejoy T. E. (eds.), Global warming and biological diversity, pp. 59-75. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT. Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
L.R. Iverson et al. 2010. Merger of three modeling approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on trees 140 Fig. 1. Schematic showing approach to modeling potential impacts of climate change on trees and birds in the Eastern United States. Fig. 2. Potential habitat changes for black oak; a) current distribution; b) future habitat under PCM low (humans track low carbon emissions); c) future habitat under Had high (humans continue to expand carbon usage); d) SHIFT colonization probability on current distribution; e) forest cover of Wisconsin region (gray=forest). Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
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Landscapes Forest and Global Change
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The contributions to this volume ha
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Table of contents Foreword Preface
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Fine-scale mapping of High Nature V
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Characterization of a Maculinea alc
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Urban tree inventory and socio-econ
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xiii Foreword Twenty years ago, Dr.
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Section 1 Scaling in landscape anal
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V. Cortes et al. 2010. Environmenta
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D. S. de Ron et al. 2010. Habitat s
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B. Bożętka 2010. Recent relations
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S.F. Chen et al. 2010. A physiotope
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V.D. de Campos & S M. Carvalho 2010
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N.S. Evseeva & Z.N. Kvasnikova 2010
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N.S. Evseeva & Z.N. Kvasnikova 2010
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S. Frank et al. 2010. A regionally
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M. García et al. 2010. The effect
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M. García et al. 2010. The effect
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S. Gholami et al. 2010. Spatial pat
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P. González-Moreno et al. 2010. Th
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T. Höbinger et al. 2010. Impact of
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P. Matos et al. 2010. Can lichen fu
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E.S. Meier et al. 2010. Projections
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E.S. Meier et al. 2010. Projections
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H. Moutahir et al. 2010. Applicatio
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H. Moutahir et al. 2010. Applicatio
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C. Palaghianu 2010. The use of Voro
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F. Peña-Cortés et al. 2010. Spati
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F. Peña-Cortés et al. 2010. Spati
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I. Catalano et al. 2010. Wood macro
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Exten
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Asses
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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V. Etemad & N. Avani 2010. Investig
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A.E. Eycott et al. 2010. The impact
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E. Fernández-Núñez et al. 2010.
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N. Fracassi & D. Somma 2010. Partic
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J. Hartter et al. 2010. Fortresses
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M.B. Horta et al. 2010. Landscape S
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J.O. López-Martínez et al. 2010.
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Sara Marques et al. 2010. Impact of
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M.G.C. Martins & J. Aranha 2010. El
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M.G.C. Martins & J. Aranha 2010. El
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J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Modeling lan
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R.S. Moro & T.K. Pereira 2010. Eval
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R.S. Moro & C.H Rocha 2010. A metho
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V. Núñez et al. 2010. Landscape i
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S.G. Plexida & A.I. Sfougaris 2010.
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A. Poljanec & A. Boncina 2010. Chan
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M. Redon & S. Luque 2010. Tengmalm
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M.C.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Contr
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M.C. Silva et al. 2010. Using Busin
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T.N. Terra & R.F dos Santos 2010. L
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E. Tetetla-Rangel et al. 2010. Rela
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M. Tsibulnikova 2010. Economic esti
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M. Akbarzadeh & E. Kouhgardi 2010.
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B. Baran-Zgłobicka & W. Zgłobicki
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B. Baran-Zgłobicka & W. Zgłobicki
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J. Beldade & T. Panagopoulos 2010.
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S.M. Carvalho & A.R. de Freitas 201
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Quant
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I. Duarte & F.C. Rego 2010. Land us
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J.S.V. Filho & M.L. Leite 2010. Sim
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F.J. Gómez et al. 2010. Land use c
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M.L. Leite & J.S.V. Filho2010. Anal
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M.L. Leite & J.S.V. Filho2010. Anal
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M.L.Leite & J.S.V. Filho 2010. Iden
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M. Ortega et al. 2010. Monitoring v
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G. Puddu et al. 2010. Landscape tra
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H.R. Ratsimba et al. 2010. Multi-sc
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M.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Charact
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M.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Charact
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M.T.C. Rodrigues & V. Silva 2010. L
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J. Schaefer-Santos & C. Lingnau 201
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S.M. Scheffer & E. Schimanski 2010.
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S.M. Scheffer & E. Schimanski 2010.
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J. Superson et al. 2010. The defore
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A.L. Teixido et al. 2010. Impacts o
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H. Viana & J. Aranha 2010. Assessin
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H. Viana & J. Aranha 2010. Mapping
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Section 6 Tools of landscape assess
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N. Avani et al. 2010. Investigation
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J.C. Azevedo et al. 2010. Spatial d
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T. Batista et al. 2010. The third d
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V. Caboun 2010. New classification
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A.M. Carvalho et al. 2010. Connecti
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M. Deconchat et al. 2010. Identific
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J. Gaspar et al. 2010. Visibility a
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J. Gaspar et al. 2010. Visibility a
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A.M. Geraldes 2010. Landscape runof
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A.M. Geraldes & M.J. Boavida 2010.
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K. Koschke et al. 2010. Using a mul
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J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Assessing
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A. Matos et al. 2010. Economic valu
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A. Migliozzi et al. 2010. Land-use
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M.L Porto et al. 2010. Naturalness
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M.L Porto et al. 2010. Naturalness
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M. Rehor & V. Ondracek 2010. Applic
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J. Russell et al. 2010. Developing
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Section 7 Management and sustainabi
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P. Angelstam & M. Elbakidze. 2010.
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M. Castro et al. 2010. Relationship
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M. Elbakidze et al. 2010. Does fore
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F. Fonseca & T. de Figueiredo 2010.
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A. Gil-Tena et al. 2010. Disentangl
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M.B. Horta & E. Keizer 2010. Assess
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E. Kouhgardi & M. Akbarzadeh 2010.
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E. Kouhgardi et al. 2010. Values of
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E. Kouhgardi et al. 2010. Values of
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E. Schimanski 2010. The importance
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L.A.M. da Silva & E. Shimanki 2010.
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N. Stryamets et al. 2010. Role of n
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E. Volkova 2010. The regional analy
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I. Löfström et al. 2010. Biodiver
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I. Löfström et al. 2010. Biodiver
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A.C.R. de Oliveira & S.M. Carvalho
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I. Silva et al. 2010. Lisbon’s pu
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Section 9 Symposia
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Z.L. Urech & J.P. Sorg 2010. Taking
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Measures of landscape structure as
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E.R. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Multi
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J.L. Hernández-Stefanoni et al. 20
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E. Uuemaa et al. 2010. Spatial grad
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E. Penot 2010. Socio-economic diagn
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Network theory to conserve and reco
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S. Decout et al. 2010. Connectivity
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S. Joost et al. 2010. GEOME. Toward
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S.R. Freitas et al. 2010. The effec
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B. Terrones et al. 2010. Detecting
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M. Kolström et al. 2010. Is it pos
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J.P. Nunes et al. 2010. Impacts of
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Management and conservation of Medi
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P.M. Fernandes et al. 2010. Testing
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E. Andrieu et al. 2010. When forest
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D. Geni et al. 2010. A framework fo
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A. Ouin et al. 2010. Do wooded elem
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C. Estreguil & G. Caudullo 2010. Ha
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J.M. Rey Benayas 2010. Restoration
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IUFRO Unit 8.01.02 Landscape Ecolog
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