23.01.2015 Views

Landscapes Forest and Global Change - ESA - Escola Superior ...

Landscapes Forest and Global Change - ESA - Escola Superior ...

Landscapes Forest and Global Change - ESA - Escola Superior ...

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS
  • No tags were found...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.

L.R. Iverson et al. 2010. Merger of three modeling approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on trees<br />

139<br />

through the fragmented habitats now existing. We intend to use SHIFT as well to perform<br />

‘experiments’ of l<strong>and</strong>scape manipulation <strong>and</strong> assisted migration to assess these potential<br />

strategies under climate change.<br />

We also show the vast differential in outcomes between a low carbon future (PCMlo) <strong>and</strong> high<br />

carbon future (HADhi) with respect to habitats for one species (it is the case for most species),<br />

<strong>and</strong> thus the critical need for a global effort to reduce carbon emissions.<br />

References<br />

Allen C., Macaladyb A., Chenchounic H., Bachelet D., McDowell N., Vennetier M., Kitzberger<br />

T., Rigling A., Breshear D., Hoggi E., Gonzalezk P., Fensham R., Zhangm Z., Castron<br />

J., Demidavao N., Lim J.-H., Allard G., Running S., Semerci A. <strong>and</strong> Cobb N. 2010. A<br />

global overview of drought <strong>and</strong> heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate<br />

change risks for forests. <strong>Forest</strong> Ecology <strong>and</strong> Management 259: 660-684.<br />

Cutler D.R., Edwards T.C., Beard K.H., Cutler A., Hess K.T., Gibson J. <strong>and</strong> Lawler J.J. 2007.<br />

R<strong>and</strong>om forests for classification in ecology. Ecology 88: 2783-2792.<br />

Davis M.B. 1981. Quaternary history <strong>and</strong> the stability of forest communities. In West D. C. <strong>and</strong><br />

Shugart H. H. (eds.), <strong>Forest</strong> succession: concepts <strong>and</strong> application, pp. 132-153.<br />

Springer-Verlag, New York.<br />

Hoegh-Guldberg O., Hughes L., McIntyre S., Lindenmayer D.B., Parmesan C., Possingham H.P.<br />

<strong>and</strong> Thomas C.D. 2008. Assisted colonization <strong>and</strong> rapid climate change. Science 321:<br />

345 - 346.<br />

Iverson L.R., Prasad A.M., Matthews S.N. <strong>and</strong> Peters M. 2008. Estimating potential habitat for<br />

134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. <strong>Forest</strong> Ecology <strong>and</strong><br />

Management 254: 390-406.<br />

Iverson L.R., Prasad, A.M. <strong>and</strong> Schwartz M.W. 1999. Modeling potential future individual treespecies<br />

distributions in the Eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a<br />

case study with Pinus virginiana. Ecological Modelling 115: 77-93.<br />

Iverson L.R., Schwartz M.W. <strong>and</strong> Prasad A.M. 2004. Potential colonization of new available<br />

tree species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species.<br />

L<strong>and</strong>scape Ecology 19: 787-799.<br />

Nakicenovic N. <strong>and</strong> others. 2000. IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge<br />

University Press, Cambridge, UK.<br />

Pope V.D. 2000. The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate<br />

model -- HadCM3. Climate Dynamics 16, 123-46. 16: 123-146.<br />

Prasad A.M., Iverson L.R. <strong>and</strong> Liaw A. 2006. Newer classification <strong>and</strong> regression tree<br />

techniques: bagging <strong>and</strong> r<strong>and</strong>om forests for ecological prediction. Ecosystems 9: 181-<br />

199.<br />

Schwartz M.W., Iverson L.R. <strong>and</strong> Prasad A.M. 2001. Predicting the potential future distribution<br />

of four tree species in Ohio, USA, using current habitat availability <strong>and</strong> climatic forcing.<br />

Ecosystems 4: 568-581.<br />

Schwartz M.W., Iverson L.R., Prasad A.M., Matthews S.N., O <strong>and</strong> Connor R.J. 2006.<br />

Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology 87: 1611-1615.<br />

Washington W.M., Weatherly J.W., Meehl G.A., Semtner Jr. A.J., Bettge, T.W., Craig A.P.,<br />

Str<strong>and</strong> Jr. W.G., Arblaster J.M., Wayl<strong>and</strong> V.B., James R. <strong>and</strong> Zhang Y. 2000. Parallel<br />

climate model (PCM) control <strong>and</strong> transient simulations. Climate Dynamics 16, 755-74.<br />

16: 755-774.<br />

Webb T.I. 1992. Past changes in vegetation <strong>and</strong> climate: lessons for the future. In Peters R. L.<br />

<strong>and</strong> Lovejoy T. E. (eds.), <strong>Global</strong> warming <strong>and</strong> biological diversity, pp. 59-75. Yale<br />

University Press, New Haven, CT.<br />

<strong>Forest</strong> <strong>L<strong>and</strong>scapes</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Change</strong>-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation <strong>and</strong> Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO L<strong>and</strong>scape Ecology<br />

Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.)<br />

2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!