Landscapes Forest and Global Change - ESA - Escola Superior ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

A. Altamirano et al. 2010. Human-caused forest fire in Mediterranean ecosystems of Chile 115 2. Methodology The study area extends over 892 km 2 and is located in Eastern Central Chile covering parts of the Valparaíso and Metropolitan regions (See Figure 2 a). We selected a landscape with temporal-stability in composition and no other significant processes than fire and succession operating at the landscape level (Vega-García and Chuvieco 2006). We used georreferenced forest fires data from a 5-year period of fire occurrence from 2004 to 2008. The database consisted of 7,210 observations, out of which 891 were pixels that burned between 2004 and 2008. A distance of 25 x 25 pixels (750 m) was used to compute the cooccurrence matrices, since small windows result in very sparse matrices. Our data of spatial heterogeneity were obtained at multiple spatial scales, including climatic, topographic, human-related, and land-cover variables from satellite imagery. We fit a logistic model in order to predict forest fire occurrence as a function of our potential predictor variables. The relationship modeled was that between the binary response variable (one = burned, zero = not burned) and the predictor variables. 3. Result We selected the best’s no correlated predictor variables. Temperature correlated strongly with Elevation (r = 0.75) (See Figure 1 a), so only one of the two variables could be used in the same model. So, we selected Temperature in order to be more biologically meaningful. No significant correlation was found between Temperature and Precipitation (r = 0.31) (See Figure 1 b). Our best model suggests that the probability of forest fires occurrence is related to high both temperature and precipitation, and lower distance to cities (Table 1). The high probability of forest fire occurrence related to high precipitation could be unusual. However, it can be explained because the most precipitation is concentrated in the first 500 masl because the local topographic conditions (See Figure 1 c). Our predictions suggest that 46% (410 km2) of the study area has high probability of forest fires occurrence, being concentrated in the eastern locations of the study area (See Figure 2 b). Our model correctly classified about 73% of our validation dataset. 4. Discussion The information of this study may be useful for hazard reduction, indicating that risk of forest fire occurrence (Ryu et al. 2007; Vega-Garcia and Chuvieco 2006). Study area is one of the most populated regions of Chile. Therefore, our findings can help to take adequate decisions regarding to land and urban planning. If climate determines patterns of forest fire occurrence, then when the climatic variables change, forest fire occurrence should change. This might have important consequences for long-term land and urban planning, since prioritization of high probability of forest fire occurrence today might not be effective for the future in the face of climate change. Exploring new statistical model approach would allow to improving the predictive capability of the models. So, part of our future research will target to this subject. References Calef, M.P., McGuire, A.D., and Chapin, F.S., 2008. Human Influences on Wildfire in Alaska from 1988 through 2005: An Analysis of the Spatial Patterns of Human Impacts. Earth Interactions, 12 (1): 1–17. Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
A. Altamirano et al. 2010. Human-caused forest fire in Mediterranean ecosystems of Chile 116 Cardille, J.A., Ventura, S.J., and Turner, M.G., 2001. Environmental and social factors influencing wildfires in the Upper Midwest, United States. Ecological Applications, 11: 111–127. CONAF., 2009. Corporación Nacional Forestal. Recursos Forestales. Protección contra incendios forestales. http://www.conaf.cl, last accessed 9 june 2008. González, M., Veblen, T.T., and Sibold, J.S., 2005. Fire history of Araucaria–Nothofagus forests in Villarrica National Park, Chile. Journal of Biogeography, 32: 1187–1202. Gustafson, E.J., Zollner, P.A., Sturtevant, B.R., He, H.S., and Mladenoff, D.J., 2004. Influence of forest management alternatives and land type on susceptibility to fire in northern Wisconsin, USA. Landscape Ecology, 19: 327–341. Litton, C.M. and Santelices, R., 2003. Effect of wildfire on soil physical and chemical properties in a Nothofagus glauca forest, Chile. Revista Chilena de Historia Natural, 76: 529-542. Lozano, F.J., Suárez-Seoane, S., and de Luis, E., 2007. Assessment of several spectral indices derived from multi-temporal Landsat data for fire occurrence probability modelling. Remote Sensing of Environment, 107: 533–544. Navarro, R.M., Hayas, A., García-Ferrer, A., Hernández, R., Duhalde, P., and González, L., 2008. Caracterización de la situación posincendio en el área afectada por el incendio de 2005 en el Parque Nacional de Torres del Paine (Chile) a partir de imágenes multiespectrales. Revista Chilena de Historia Natural, 81: 95-110. Ryu, S., Chen, J., Zheng, D. and Lacroix, J.J., 2007. Relating surface fire spread to landscape structure: An application of FARSITE in a managed forest landscape. Landscape and Urban Planning, 83: 275–283. Vega-García, C. and Chuvieco, E., 2006. Applying local measures of spatial heterogeneity to Landsat-TM images for predicting wildfire occurrence in Mediterranean landscapes. Landscape Ecology, 21:595–605. Yadav, B. and Kaushik, R., 2007. Forest fire and its impacts. Plant Archives, 7 (1): 33-37. Table 1: Best model for predicting spatial variation of forest fire occurrence in the study area. Variables Coefficients Standard error z value Intercept -9.2939 1.6625 -5.54* Annual mean temperature 0.0437 0.0097 4.43* Distance to cities -0.0001 0.0000 -7.26* Annual precipitation 0.0090 0.0009 9.60* * P < 0.0001 Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
Page 1 and 2:
Landscapes Forest and Global Change
Page 3:
The contributions to this volume ha
Page 6 and 7:
Table of contents Foreword Preface
Page 8 and 9:
Fine-scale mapping of High Nature V
Page 10 and 11:
Characterization of a Maculinea alc
Page 12 and 13:
Urban tree inventory and socio-econ
Page 14 and 15:
xiii Foreword Twenty years ago, Dr.
Page 16 and 17:
Section 1 Scaling in landscape anal
Page 18 and 19:
V. Cortes et al. 2010. Environmenta
Page 20 and 21:
Page 22 and 23:
Page 24 and 25:
D. S. de Ron et al. 2010. Habitat s
Page 26 and 27:
Page 28 and 29:
Page 30 and 31:
B. Bożętka 2010. Recent relations
Page 32 and 33:
Page 34 and 35:
Page 36 and 37:
S.F. Chen et al. 2010. A physiotope
Page 38 and 39:
Page 40 and 41:
Page 42 and 43:
V.D. de Campos & S M. Carvalho 2010
Page 44 and 45:
Page 46 and 47:
Page 48 and 49:
N.S. Evseeva & Z.N. Kvasnikova 2010
Page 50 and 51:
N.S. Evseeva & Z.N. Kvasnikova 2010
Page 52 and 53:
S. Frank et al. 2010. A regionally
Page 54 and 55:
Page 56 and 57:
Page 58 and 59:
M. García et al. 2010. The effect
Page 60 and 61:
M. García et al. 2010. The effect
Page 62 and 63:
S. Gholami et al. 2010. Spatial pat
Page 64 and 65:
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
P. González-Moreno et al. 2010. Th
Page 70 and 71:
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
T. Höbinger et al. 2010. Impact of
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81: P. Matos et al. 2010. Can lichen fu
Page 86 and 87: E.S. Meier et al. 2010. Projections
Page 88 and 89: E.S. Meier et al. 2010. Projections
Page 90 and 91: H. Moutahir et al. 2010. Applicatio
Page 92 and 93: H. Moutahir et al. 2010. Applicatio
Page 94 and 95: C. Palaghianu 2010. The use of Voro
Page 100 and 101: F. Peña-Cortés et al. 2010. Spati
Page 106 and 107: F.M. Rabenilalana et al. 2010. Mult
Page 112 and 113: A. Ruskule et al. 2010. Patterns of
Page 118 and 119: E. Sayad 2010. Nitrogen retrancloca
Page 120 and 121: E. Sayad 2010. Nitrogen retrancloca
Page 122 and 123: G. Zhelezov 2010. Evaluation of the
Page 128 and 129: Section 3 Disturbances in changing
Page 132 and 133: A. Altamirano et al. 2010. Human-ca
Page 134 and 135: T. Curt & J. Pausas 2010. Are chang
Page 140 and 141: R.A Fleming et al. 2010. Forest man
Page 142 and 143: R.A Fleming et al. 2010. Forest man
Page 144 and 145: P.C. Goebel et al. 2010. How import
Page 150 and 151: L.R. Iverson et al. 2010. Merger of
Page 156 and 157: T.-C. Lin et al. 2010. Immediate ef
Page 162 and 163: K. L. Martin & P.C. Goebel 2010. Im
Page 168 and 169: G.M. Pastur et al. 2010. Indirect e
Page 174 and 175: E.W Saragih et al. 2010. Effects of
Page 180 and 181:
L.R.P. Williamson et al. 2010. Anth
Page 182 and 183:
Page 184 and 185:
Page 186 and 187:
N. Zurbriggen et al. 2010. Modeling
Page 188 and 189:
Page 190 and 191:
Page 192 and 193:
Section 4 Biodiversity conservation
Page 194 and 195:
Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
Page 196 and 197:
Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
Page 198 and 199:
C. Carvalho-Santos 2010. Fine-scale
Page 200 and 201:
Page 202 and 203:
Page 204 and 205:
I. Catalano et al. 2010. Wood macro
Page 206 and 207:
Page 208 and 209:
Page 210 and 211:
R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Exten
Page 212 and 213:
Page 214 and 215:
Page 216 and 217:
R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Asses
Page 218 and 219:
Page 220 and 221:
Page 222 and 223:
P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
Page 224 and 225:
P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
Page 226 and 227:
V. Etemad & N. Avani 2010. Investig
Page 228 and 229:
Page 230 and 231:
Page 232 and 233:
A.E. Eycott et al. 2010. The impact
Page 234 and 235:
Page 236 and 237:
Page 238 and 239:
E. Fernández-Núñez et al. 2010.
Page 240 and 241:
Page 242 and 243:
Page 244 and 245:
N. Fracassi & D. Somma 2010. Partic
Page 246 and 247:
Page 248 and 249:
Page 250 and 251:
J. Hartter et al. 2010. Fortresses
Page 252 and 253:
Page 254 and 255:
Page 256 and 257:
M.B. Horta et al. 2010. Landscape S
Page 258 and 259:
Page 260 and 261:
Page 262 and 263:
J.O. López-Martínez et al. 2010.
Page 264 and 265:
Page 266 and 267:
Page 268 and 269:
Sara Marques et al. 2010. Impact of
Page 270 and 271:
Page 272 and 273:
Page 274 and 275:
M.G.C. Martins & J. Aranha 2010. El
Page 276 and 277:
M.G.C. Martins & J. Aranha 2010. El
Page 278 and 279:
J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Modeling lan
Page 280 and 281:
Page 282 and 283:
Page 284 and 285:
R.S. Moro & T.K. Pereira 2010. Eval
Page 286 and 287:
Page 288 and 289:
Page 290 and 291:
R.S. Moro & C.H Rocha 2010. A metho
Page 292 and 293:
Page 294 and 295:
Page 296 and 297:
V. Núñez et al. 2010. Landscape i
Page 298 and 299:
Page 300 and 301:
Page 302 and 303:
S.G. Plexida & A.I. Sfougaris 2010.
Page 304 and 305:
Page 306 and 307:
Page 308 and 309:
A. Poljanec & A. Boncina 2010. Chan
Page 310 and 311:
Page 312 and 313:
Page 314 and 315:
M. Redon & S. Luque 2010. Tengmalm
Page 316 and 317:
Page 318 and 319:
Page 320 and 321:
M.C.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Contr
Page 322 and 323:
M.C. Silva et al. 2010. Using Busin
Page 324 and 325:
Page 326 and 327:
Page 328 and 329:
T.N. Terra & R.F dos Santos 2010. L
Page 330 and 331:
Page 332 and 333:
Page 334 and 335:
E. Tetetla-Rangel et al. 2010. Rela
Page 336 and 337:
Page 338 and 339:
Page 340 and 341:
M. Tsibulnikova 2010. Economic esti
Page 342 and 343:
Page 344 and 345:
Page 346 and 347:
M. Akbarzadeh & E. Kouhgardi 2010.
Page 348 and 349:
Page 350 and 351:
Page 352 and 353:
B. Baran-Zgłobicka & W. Zgłobicki
Page 354 and 355:
B. Baran-Zgłobicka & W. Zgłobicki
Page 356 and 357:
J. Beldade & T. Panagopoulos 2010.
Page 358 and 359:
Page 360 and 361:
Page 362 and 363:
S.M. Carvalho & A.R. de Freitas 201
Page 364 and 365:
Page 366 and 367:
Page 368 and 369:
R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Quant
Page 370 and 371:
Page 372 and 373:
Page 374 and 375:
I. Duarte & F.C. Rego 2010. Land us
Page 376 and 377:
Page 378 and 379:
Page 380 and 381:
J.S.V. Filho & M.L. Leite 2010. Sim
Page 382 and 383:
Page 384 and 385:
Page 386 and 387:
F.J. Gómez et al. 2010. Land use c
Page 388 and 389:
Page 390 and 391:
Page 392 and 393:
M.L. Leite & J.S.V. Filho2010. Anal
Page 394 and 395:
M.L. Leite & J.S.V. Filho2010. Anal
Page 396 and 397:
M.L.Leite & J.S.V. Filho 2010. Iden
Page 398 and 399:
Page 400 and 401:
Page 402 and 403:
M. Ortega et al. 2010. Monitoring v
Page 404 and 405:
Page 406 and 407:
Page 408 and 409:
G. Puddu et al. 2010. Landscape tra
Page 410 and 411:
Page 412 and 413:
Page 414 and 415:
H.R. Ratsimba et al. 2010. Multi-sc
Page 416 and 417:
Page 418 and 419:
Page 420 and 421:
M.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Charact
Page 422 and 423:
M.C. Rodrigues et al. 2010. Charact
Page 424 and 425:
M.T.C. Rodrigues & V. Silva 2010. L
Page 426 and 427:
Page 428 and 429:
Page 430 and 431:
J. Schaefer-Santos & C. Lingnau 201
Page 432 and 433:
Page 434 and 435:
Page 436 and 437:
S.M. Scheffer & E. Schimanski 2010.
Page 438 and 439:
S.M. Scheffer & E. Schimanski 2010.
Page 440 and 441:
J. Superson et al. 2010. The defore
Page 442 and 443:
Page 444 and 445:
Page 446 and 447:
A.L. Teixido et al. 2010. Impacts o
Page 448 and 449:
Page 450 and 451:
Page 452 and 453:
H. Viana & J. Aranha 2010. Assessin
Page 454 and 455:
Page 456 and 457:
Page 458 and 459:
H. Viana & J. Aranha 2010. Mapping
Page 460 and 461:
Page 462 and 463:
Page 464 and 465:
Section 6 Tools of landscape assess
Page 466 and 467:
N. Avani et al. 2010. Investigation
Page 468 and 469:
Page 470 and 471:
Page 472 and 473:
J.C. Azevedo et al. 2010. Spatial d
Page 474 and 475:
Page 476 and 477:
Page 478 and 479:
T. Batista et al. 2010. The third d
Page 480 and 481:
Page 482 and 483:
Page 484 and 485:
V. Caboun 2010. New classification
Page 486 and 487:
Page 488 and 489:
Page 490 and 491:
A.M. Carvalho et al. 2010. Connecti
Page 492 and 493:
Page 494 and 495:
Page 496 and 497:
M. Deconchat et al. 2010. Identific
Page 498 and 499:
Page 500 and 501:
Page 502 and 503:
J. Gaspar et al. 2010. Visibility a
Page 504 and 505:
J. Gaspar et al. 2010. Visibility a
Page 506 and 507:
A.M. Geraldes 2010. Landscape runof
Page 508 and 509:
Page 510 and 511:
Page 512 and 513:
A.M. Geraldes & M.J. Boavida 2010.
Page 514 and 515:
Page 516 and 517:
Page 518 and 519:
K. Koschke et al. 2010. Using a mul
Page 520 and 521:
Page 522 and 523:
Page 524 and 525:
J.-F. Mas et al. 2010. Assessing
Page 526 and 527:
Page 528 and 529:
Page 530 and 531:
A. Matos et al. 2010. Economic valu
Page 532 and 533:
Page 534 and 535:
Page 536 and 537:
A. Migliozzi et al. 2010. Land-use
Page 538 and 539:
Page 540 and 541:
Page 542 and 543:
M.L Porto et al. 2010. Naturalness
Page 544 and 545:
M.L Porto et al. 2010. Naturalness
Page 546 and 547:
M. Rehor & V. Ondracek 2010. Applic
Page 548 and 549:
Page 550 and 551:
Page 552 and 553:
J. Russell et al. 2010. Developing
Page 554 and 555:
Page 556 and 557:
Page 558 and 559:
Section 7 Management and sustainabi
Page 560 and 561:
P. Angelstam & M. Elbakidze. 2010.
Page 562 and 563:
Page 564 and 565:
Page 566 and 567:
M. Castro et al. 2010. Relationship
Page 568 and 569:
Page 570 and 571:
Page 572 and 573:
M. Elbakidze et al. 2010. Does fore
Page 574 and 575:
Page 576 and 577:
Page 578 and 579:
F. Fonseca & T. de Figueiredo 2010.
Page 580 and 581:
Page 582 and 583:
Page 584 and 585:
A. Gil-Tena et al. 2010. Disentangl
Page 586 and 587:
Page 588 and 589:
Page 590 and 591:
M.B. Horta & E. Keizer 2010. Assess
Page 592 and 593:
Page 594 and 595:
Page 596 and 597:
E. Kouhgardi & M. Akbarzadeh 2010.
Page 598 and 599:
Page 600 and 601:
Page 602 and 603:
E. Kouhgardi et al. 2010. Values of
Page 604 and 605:
E. Kouhgardi et al. 2010. Values of
Page 606 and 607:
E. Schimanski 2010. The importance
Page 608 and 609:
Page 610 and 611:
Page 612 and 613:
L.A.M. da Silva & E. Shimanki 2010.
Page 614 and 615:
Page 616 and 617:
Page 618 and 619:
N. Stryamets et al. 2010. Role of n
Page 620 and 621:
Page 622 and 623:
Page 624 and 625:
E. Volkova 2010. The regional analy
Page 626 and 627:
Page 628 and 629:
Page 630 and 631:
I. Löfström et al. 2010. Biodiver
Page 632 and 633:
I. Löfström et al. 2010. Biodiver
Page 634 and 635:
A.C.R. de Oliveira & S.M. Carvalho
Page 636 and 637:
Page 638 and 639:
Page 640 and 641:
I. Silva et al. 2010. Lisbon’s pu
Page 642 and 643:
Page 644 and 645:
Page 646 and 647:
Section 9 Symposia
Page 648 and 649:
Z.L. Urech & J.P. Sorg 2010. Taking
Page 650 and 651:
Page 652 and 653:
Page 654 and 655:
Measures of landscape structure as
Page 656 and 657:
E.R. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Multi
Page 658 and 659:
Page 660 and 661:
Page 662 and 663:
J.L. Hernández-Stefanoni et al. 20
Page 664 and 665:
Page 666 and 667:
Page 668 and 669:
E. Uuemaa et al. 2010. Spatial grad
Page 670 and 671:
Page 672 and 673:
Page 674 and 675:
E. Penot 2010. Socio-economic diagn
Page 676 and 677:
Page 678 and 679:
Page 680 and 681:
Network theory to conserve and reco
Page 682 and 683:
S. Decout et al. 2010. Connectivity
Page 684 and 685:
Page 686 and 687:
Page 688 and 689:
S. Joost et al. 2010. GEOME. Toward
Page 690 and 691:
Page 692 and 693:
Page 694 and 695:
S.R. Freitas et al. 2010. The effec
Page 696 and 697:
Page 698 and 699:
Page 700 and 701:
B. Terrones et al. 2010. Detecting
Page 702 and 703:
Page 704 and 705:
Page 706 and 707:
M. Kolström et al. 2010. Is it pos
Page 708 and 709:
Page 710 and 711:
Page 712 and 713:
S. M. Carvalho-Ribeiro & T. Pinto-C
Page 714 and 715:
Page 716 and 717:
Page 718 and 719:
J.P. Nunes et al. 2010. Impacts of
Page 720 and 721:
Page 722 and 723:
Page 724 and 725:
Management and conservation of Medi
Page 726 and 727:
P.M. Fernandes et al. 2010. Testing
Page 728 and 729:
Page 730 and 731:
Page 732 and 733:
E. Andrieu et al. 2010. When forest
Page 734 and 735:
Page 736 and 737:
Page 738 and 739:
D. Geni et al. 2010. A framework fo
Page 740 and 741:
Page 742 and 743:
Page 744 and 745:
A. Ouin et al. 2010. Do wooded elem
Page 746 and 747:
Page 748 and 749:
Page 750 and 751:
C. Estreguil & G. Caudullo 2010. Ha
Page 752 and 753:
Page 754 and 755:
Page 756 and 757:
J.M. Rey Benayas 2010. Restoration
Page 758 and 759:
Page 760 and 761:
Page 762:
IUFRO Unit 8.01.02 Landscape Ecolog
show all

Landscapes Forest and Global Change - ESA - Escola Superior ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?