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Landscapes Forest and Global Change - ESA - Escola Superior ...
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Section 3<br />
Disturbances in changing l<strong>and</strong>scapes
Section 3 Disturbances in changing l<strong>and</strong>scapes
A. Altamirano et al. 2010. Human-caused forest fire in Mediterranean ecosystems of Chile 114 Human-caused forest fire in Mediterranean ecosystems of Chile: modelling l<strong>and</strong>scape spatial patterns on forest fire occurrence Adison Altamirano 1* , Christian Salas 1,2 & Valeska Yaitul 2 1 Departamento de Ciencias <strong>Forest</strong>ales, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile 2 School of <strong>Forest</strong>ry <strong>and</strong> Environmental Studies, Yale University, USA Abstract Modelling forest fire occurrence has been lacked for the southern hemisphere, in particular for Chilean ecosystems. We developed models to investigate the relationship between forest fire occurrence <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>scape heterogeneity in Mediterranean ecosystems of Chile. We used georreferenced forest fires data from 2004 to 2008. Our data of spatial heterogeneity were obtained at multiple spatial scales, including climatic, topographic, human-related, <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>cover variables. We fit a logistic model in order to predict forest fire occurrence as a function of our potential predictor variables. Our best model suggests that the probability of forest fires occurrence is related to high both temperature <strong>and</strong> precipitation, <strong>and</strong> lower distance to cities. Our predictions suggest that 46% of the study area has high probability of forest fires occurrence. Our findings can help to take adequate decisions regarding l<strong>and</strong> planning. Keywords: Disturbance, logistic regression, remote sensing, l<strong>and</strong> planning. 1. Introduction Fire disturbance is recognized as an important problem because it can devastate natural resources, human property, <strong>and</strong> threaten human lives (Cardille et al. 2001; Gustafson et al. 2004; González et al. 2005; Ryu et al. 2007). <strong>Forest</strong> fires result in enormous economic losses because they affect environmental, recreational, <strong>and</strong> amenity values as well as consume timber, degrade real estate, <strong>and</strong> generate high cost of suppression (Yadav <strong>and</strong> Kaushik 2007). Modelling forest fire occurrence (i.e., where <strong>and</strong> when a forest fire starts) has recently been conducted in the northern hemisphere (Calef et al. 2008; Lozano et al. 2007; Ryu et al. 2007; Vega-Garcia <strong>and</strong> Chuvieco 2006), however, efforts on the subject are lacking for the southern hemisphere, in particular for Chilean ecosystems. Some studies in Chile have focused in postfire effects on vegetation dynamics (Navarro et al. 2008; Litton <strong>and</strong> Santelices 2003), but studies on predicting forest fires occurrence are lacking. <strong>Forest</strong> fire occurrence has increased in the last years in Chile, being the mean frequency about five thous<strong>and</strong> forest fires per year. These fires have affected a mean area of about 500 km2 per year (Navarro et al. 2008; CONAF 2009) being the human activity the main cause of fire ignition (CONAF 2009). We developed models to investigate the relationship between forest fire occurrence <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>scape heterogeneity in Mediterranean ecosystems of Chile. * Corresponding author. Tel.: +56 45 325658 - Fax: +56 45 325634 Email address: aaltamiranofro.cl <strong>Forest</strong> <strong>L<strong>and</strong>scapes</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Global</strong> <strong>Change</strong>-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation <strong>and</strong> Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO L<strong>and</strong>scape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
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Landscapes Forest and Global Change
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The contributions to this volume ha
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Table of contents Foreword Preface
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Fine-scale mapping of High Nature V
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Characterization of a Maculinea alc
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Urban tree inventory and socio-econ
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xiii Foreword Twenty years ago, Dr.
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Section 1 Scaling in landscape anal
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V. Cortes et al. 2010. Environmenta
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V. Cortes et al. 2010. Environmenta
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E. Kouhgardi & M. Akbarzadeh 2010.
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E. Kouhgardi & M. Akbarzadeh 2010.
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E. Kouhgardi et al. 2010. Values of
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E. Kouhgardi et al. 2010. Values of
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E. Schimanski 2010. The importance
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E. Schimanski 2010. The importance
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E. Schimanski 2010. The importance
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L.A.M. da Silva & E. Shimanki 2010.
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L.A.M. da Silva & E. Shimanki 2010.
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L.A.M. da Silva & E. Shimanki 2010.
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N. Stryamets et al. 2010. Role of n
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N. Stryamets et al. 2010. Role of n
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E. Volkova 2010. The regional analy
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E. Volkova 2010. The regional analy
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E. Volkova 2010. The regional analy
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I. Löfström et al. 2010. Biodiver
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A.C.R. de Oliveira & S.M. Carvalho
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I. Silva et al. 2010. Lisbon’s pu
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I. Silva et al. 2010. Lisbon’s pu
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Section 9 Symposia
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Z.L. Urech & J.P. Sorg 2010. Taking
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Z.L. Urech & J.P. Sorg 2010. Taking
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Z.L. Urech & J.P. Sorg 2010. Taking
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Measures of landscape structure as
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E.R. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Multi
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E.R. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Multi
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E.R. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Multi
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J.L. Hernández-Stefanoni et al. 20
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J.L. Hernández-Stefanoni et al. 20
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E. Uuemaa et al. 2010. Spatial grad
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E. Uuemaa et al. 2010. Spatial grad
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E. Uuemaa et al. 2010. Spatial grad
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E. Penot 2010. Socio-economic diagn
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E. Penot 2010. Socio-economic diagn
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E. Penot 2010. Socio-economic diagn
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Network theory to conserve and reco
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S. Decout et al. 2010. Connectivity
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S. Decout et al. 2010. Connectivity
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S. Decout et al. 2010. Connectivity
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S. Joost et al. 2010. GEOME. Toward
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S. Joost et al. 2010. GEOME. Toward
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S. Joost et al. 2010. GEOME. Toward
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S.R. Freitas et al. 2010. The effec
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S.R. Freitas et al. 2010. The effec
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S.R. Freitas et al. 2010. The effec
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B. Terrones et al. 2010. Detecting
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B. Terrones et al. 2010. Detecting
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B. Terrones et al. 2010. Detecting
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M. Kolström et al. 2010. Is it pos
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J.P. Nunes et al. 2010. Impacts of
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Management and conservation of Medi
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P.M. Fernandes et al. 2010. Testing
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P.M. Fernandes et al. 2010. Testing
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P.M. Fernandes et al. 2010. Testing
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E. Andrieu et al. 2010. When forest
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D. Geni et al. 2010. A framework fo
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IUFRO Unit 8.01.02 Landscape Ecolog
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