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F. Peña-Cortés et al. 2010. Spatial and temporal dynamics and future trends of change in La Araucania, Chile 85 Spatial and temporal dynamics and future trends of change in the coastal landscape of La Araucania, Chile Fernando Peña-Cortés 1* , Daniel Rozas 1 , Enrique Hauenstein 1 , Carlos Bertrán 2 , Jaime Tapia 3 & Marco Cisternas 4 1 Laboratorio de Planificación Territorial, Escuela de Ciencias Ambientales, Facultad de Recursos Naturales, Universidad Católica de Temuco, Chile 2 Instituto de Zoología, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile 3 Instituto de Química de Recursos Naturales, Universidad de Talca, Chile 4 Facultad de Recursos Naturales, Escuela de Ciencias del Mar, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile Summary In the coastal rim of La Araucania land use has significantly changed during the last 100 years mainly due to anthropic effects, though to significant natural events too. The aim of this study is to identify the direction and magnitude of change patterns that landscape units have had from 1980 to 2007. The analysis was made in base of information obtained by remote sensing and cadastral mapping of vegetation, evaluating the change of spatial patterns to propose a prospective model to 2017. The prospective method was based on Markov chain and Cellular automata. The results show significant changes in usage patterns, denoting especially forest expansion and fragmentation of natural habitats. For the year 2017, the survey indicates a trend of maintaining the forest, although, however, is expected for a stabilization in the fragmentation process. Keywords: Coastal rim, landscape units, time series, Markov chains. 1. Introduction The change in land use is one of the most relevant events in the relation between man and environment. While in many cases the spatial configuration of the territory is due to natural events, are human activities, in particular, economic activity, one of the main agents of change modelers (Van der Veen & Otter 2001; Fan et al. 2008; Koomen et al. 2008). According to Peña-Cortés et al. (2009), original land use in coastal watersheds of La Araucania has significantly changed in the last 100 years. Landscape has been strongly altered by man and by important natural events like the earthquake and tsunami of 1960, and the recent one from February 2010, creating a cultural landscape dominated by an agricultural matrix and a matrix exponential occupation of forest from 30 years ago. In this sense, temporal analysis of landscape dynamics provides us with, on the one hand, some relevant information about ecological processes associated to magnitude and direction of the changes (Torrejón & Cisternas 2002; Bender et al.2005; Peña et al. 2006), also a historical synthesis of socio-economic events which resulted in the territory, and the evolution of state policies concerning the use of natural resources. * Corresponding author. Tel.: 56-45-205469 - Fax: 56-45-205469 Email address: fpena@uct.cl Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
F. Peña-Cortés et al. 2010. Spatial and temporal dynamics and future trends of change in La Araucania, Chile 86 Numerous investigations have attempted to develop scientists and planners on the dynamics of change and development of future projections of land occupation (Baker 1989; Cousins2001; Weng 2002; Luijten 2003; Jackson et al. 2004; Gómez-Mendoza et al. 2006; Fan et al. 2008; Wang et al. 2010), being widely used scenario and trend analysis (Koomen et al. 2008). This paper presents an application of a series of indices and metrics related to the structure and temporary dynamics of landscape in coastal watersheds of La Araucania. The objective is to identify the direction and magnitude of usage patterns that landscape units have had from 1980 to 2007. It also proposes a scenario to 2017 based on Markov Chain and Cellular Automata in a GIS environment. 2. Methodology The study area (figure 1) corresponds to the coastal rim of La Araucania, located between 38° 30’ y 39° 30’ of South Latitude and 72° 50’ y 73° 30’ of West Latitude. Its surface is 221.993 hectares distributed in four coastal watersheds: Moncul (44.747 ha), Budi (48.494 ha), Chelle (9.267 ha) y Queule river (69.144 ha), which are on a territory formed by mountain ranges, marine erosion platforms and extensive fluvial and marine plains (Peña-Cortes et al. 2006). According to Di Castri and Hajek (1976) the weather is oceanic with a Mediterranean influence and an average annual rainfall from 1200 mm to 1600 mm. 2.1 Mapping process For the identification and analysis of land use coverages were used 1:60,000 scale aerial photographs for 1980, 1:20,000 For 1994 and also the regional classification of the cadastre vegetation resources of Chile (CONAF - CONAMA- BIRF 1999) updated in 2007 in 1:50.000 scale. In all cases we used satellite imagery in support of Landsat and Aster sensor. On these images we proceeded to classify the various ground covers in a previously established categorization of 14 classes. For the analysis of spatial patterns and dynamic changes of use layers were reclassified into eight classes according to the type of coverage. The processing and data analysis was performed with the software Taiga Idrisi and ArcGis 9.3. 2.2 Analysis of landscape The analysis of dynamics and patterns of landscape considered calculating magnitude and direction of changes during the assessed process. Among the first one, rates of change annual average for each class was obtained (TCC). For the detailed study of its temporal variation metrics were used at landscape related to the fragments, edges and complex forms described by Patton (1985) and Henao (1988). The heterogeinity of the landscape mosaic was evaluated by the diversity index and Shannon evenness. Regarding the direction of change, it was obtained by an evaluation pixel by pixel to its original state at time 0 to the next state at time 1. The result is given by the pixel number of class x (1-8) are transformed to the class and (1-8) over a period of time t (0-1). 2.3 Prospective model For the development of a future projection for the current dynamics of the landscape, the method of Markov Chain was used. This produces a transition probability matrix for each landscape unit simulating a future scenario from the two previous statements. After the application of Markov chain, a stochastic projection algorithm was applied to evaluate the probability of each pixel to belong to either category of landscape. Finally, to address the lack of spatial dependence and topological criteria in evaluating the future scenario, we employed a Forest Landscapes and Global Change-New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, September 21-27, 2010, Bragança, Portugal. J.C. Azevedo, M. Feliciano, J. Castro & M.A. Pinto (eds.) 2010, Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Bragança, Portugal.
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Landscapes Forest and Global Change
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The contributions to this volume ha
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Table of contents Foreword Preface
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Fine-scale mapping of High Nature V
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Characterization of a Maculinea alc
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Urban tree inventory and socio-econ
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xiii Foreword Twenty years ago, Dr.
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Section 1 Scaling in landscape anal
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V. Cortes et al. 2010. Environmenta
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T.-C. Lin et al. 2010. Immediate ef
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E.W Saragih et al. 2010. Effects of
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L.R.P. Williamson et al. 2010. Anth
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N. Zurbriggen et al. 2010. Modeling
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Section 4 Biodiversity conservation
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Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
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Akbarzadeh et al. 2010. Ecotourism
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C. Carvalho-Santos 2010. Fine-scale
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I. Catalano et al. 2010. Wood macro
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R.A. Diaz-Varela et al. 2010. Asses
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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P.A.E. Diogo & J. Aranha 2010. GIS
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V. Etemad & N. Avani 2010. Investig
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A.E. Eycott et al. 2010. The impact
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J. Hartter et al. 2010. Fortresses
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Sara Marques et al. 2010. Impact of
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M.G.C. Martins & J. Aranha 2010. El
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IUFRO Unit 8.01.02 Landscape Ecolog
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