Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium and Heavy ...

Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium and Heavy ... Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium and Heavy ...

21.01.2015 Views

Scenarios for estimation of change in delay: A basic four-lane freeway segment (two lanes in either direction) is at capacity when there are at least 2,200 passenger cars per lane per hour, or 4,400 passenger cars traveling in either direction. The roadway has a free-flow travel speed of 70 mph, no horizontal obstructions, two 12-foot travel lanes, no grade, and is 10 miles in length. The two scenarios below illustrate the impact of trucks on highway capacity under a condition of moderately heavy demand: Base scenario: A roadway that carries a significant number of trucks and passenger vehicles but currently operates at an acceptable level of service, and does not experience many hours of delay. The volume (demand) consists of 3,400 total vehicles on the basic freeway segment per hour. Ten percent of them (340 vehicles) are trucks and they have, on average, a 500 horsepower engine and a fully-loaded gross-vehicle weight of 80,000 lbs, which produces a weight to horsepower ratio of 160 lb/hp (80,000/500); Truck VMT increase scenario: This scenario is identical to the base scenario described above except that trucks are increased between 2.2 and 10.5 percent to grow with the increase in traffic described in Section (1)(ii). Findings: Base scenario for estimation of change in delay: To estimate the volume to capacity ratio, take the 3,400 vehicles and add the additional PCEs created by the trucks. Each truck on this segment occupies the same capacity as 2.6 passenger vehicles (From Figure A-1, each truck is worth 2.6 PCEs). The road operates as if there are 3,060 autos plus 884 PCEs (340*2.6), identical to a scenario where there are no trucks and 3,994 passenger cars. The estimated V/C ratio is 3,944/4,400, or 0.90. Using the BPR formula, the congested speed for this segment is 63.8 mph ((70) / (1 + 0.15 * [3,944/4,400] ^ 4) =63.8 mph). It takes 8.6 minutes to travel the 10-mile roadway in free-flow conditions and 9.4 minutes in congested conditions, which implies a delay of 0.8 minutes per vehicle under the operating conditions described in the scenario. For all 3,400 vehicles, this implies a total delay of 2,720 minutes of delay, approximately 45 hours. Truck VMT increase scenario for estimation of change in delay: In this scenario, truck volumes increase by 2.2 - 10.5 percent over the base scenario conditions, an increase of 8 - 36 trucks or an increase in total vehicles of 0.2 – 1.1 percent. The road now operates as though there are 3,060 autos plus 904 - 978 PCEs (348*2.6; 376*2.6), identical to a scenario where there are no trucks and 3,964 - 4,038 passenger cars. The V/C ratio is 3,964/4,400 – 4,038/4,400, or 0.90 - 0.92. Using the BPR formula, the congested speed for this segment is 63.7 - 63.3 mph. This marginally increases the travel time for the 10-mile segment to 9.4 - 9.5 minutes in congested conditions, which implies a delay of 0.8 - 0.9 minutes per vehicle. For all 3,408 - 3,436 vehicles, this implies a total delay of 2,726 - 3,092, approximately 45 - 52 hours – an increase in delay of 0 – 16 percent compared to the base scenario. This increase in delay is small compared to the overall travel time on this segment (although it is valid only at this particular point on the BPR curve.) Furthermore, the majority of VMT on U.S. freeways and arterial roadways occurs at acceptable levels of service (71 percent of urban VMT and 92 percent of rural VMT currently operates at level of service D or better) and impacts on these roadways are likely to be minimal. However, the marginal impact on delay will become larger as the capacity of the road is approached. For some roadways operating at or near - 14 -

capacity and with high truck volumes, it is possible that increased truck travel as a result of the rebound effect from higher fuel efficiency could have an impact on delay that is not insignificant. For estimation of change in marginal cost: The increase in rural and urban Class 8 truck VMT is 1.9 to 8.7 billion VMT (58 percent of the previously estimated 3.2 to 15 billion VMT increase) and 1.3 to 6.3 billion VMT (42 percent of the 3.2 to 15 billion VMT increase), respectively. 23 Using Parry‘s marginal congestion costs of $0.037 per-mile in rural areas and $0.168 per-mile in urban areas, the total increase in cost ranges from $0.3 billion to $1.4 billion (e.g. $0.3 billion = 1.9 billion rural VMT * $0.037 per-mile + 1.3 billion urban VMT * $0.168 per-mile). (vii) Safety Impacts Key Question: If regulations reduce truck performance and/or reduce or increase truck VMT, what are the potential implications for safety Background: Section (1)(ii) describes how the demand for long-haul trucking will increase if fuel economy regulations effectively reduce long-haul truck operating costs. Truck traffic is estimated to increase between 3.2 and 15 billion VMT (an increase of 2.2 - 10.5 percent), depending on the technology alternatives and assumed demand elasticities. Literature shows that truck traffic has a direct correlation with injuries and fatalities. Estimates of increased truck traffic can be multiplied by the injury and fatality crash rates to estimate the range of potential deaths and injuries caused by the increase in travel. The concurrent white paper produced by ERG suggests that the impacts of fuel economy regulations on truck performance will be minimal, if any, and therefore performance impacts on safety are not considered further. The safety impacts of changes in truck traffic can also be valued using marginal safety cost estimates from the literature. The marginal cost that one combination truck has on the safety of the population describes the cost, measured in property damage, medical costs, value of a statistical life, etc. that a single additional combination truck imposes on the rest of the traffic already on the roadway. The marginal safety cost of combination trucks has been estimated by Parry to be $0.018 per mile in urban areas and $0.034 per mile in rural areas. 24 Generally, the marginal costs are higher in rural areas than in urban areas because the speeds are higher and there is a higher likelihood of a larger speed differential, a key determining factor in highway accident severity and likelihood. Findings: For estimation of increase in injuries and fatalities: Recent data for highway crashes indicate crash rates for truck tractors with trailers of 2.4 per 100 million VMT for fatal crashes and 51.1 per 100 23 Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics, 2009 and Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Pocket Guide to Transportation, January 2009. 24 Parry, Ian, ―How Should Heavy-Duty Trucks Be Taxed‖, Resources for the Future, April 2006. See Table 1 for his benchmark parameter values for mileage-related marginal external costs. - 15 -

Scenarios <strong>for</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> change in delay: A basic four-lane freeway segment (two lanes in either<br />

direction) is at capacity when there are at least 2,200 passenger cars per lane per hour, or 4,400<br />

passenger cars traveling in either direction. The roadway has a free-flow travel speed <strong>of</strong> 70 mph,<br />

no horizontal obstructions, two 12-foot travel lanes, no grade, <strong>and</strong> is 10 miles in length. The two<br />

scenarios below illustrate the impact <strong>of</strong> trucks on highway capacity under a condition <strong>of</strong><br />

moderately heavy dem<strong>and</strong>:<br />

Base scenario: A roadway that carries a significant number <strong>of</strong> trucks <strong>and</strong> passenger vehicles<br />

but currently operates at an acceptable level <strong>of</strong> service, <strong>and</strong> does not experience many hours<br />

<strong>of</strong> delay. The volume (dem<strong>and</strong>) consists <strong>of</strong> 3,400 total vehicles on the basic freeway segment<br />

per hour. Ten percent <strong>of</strong> them (340 vehicles) are trucks <strong>and</strong> they have, on average, a 500<br />

horsepower engine <strong>and</strong> a fully-loaded gross-vehicle weight <strong>of</strong> 80,000 lbs, which produces a<br />

weight to horsepower ratio <strong>of</strong> 160 lb/hp (80,000/500);<br />

Truck VMT increase scenario: This scenario is identical to the base scenario described above<br />

except that trucks are increased between 2.2 <strong>and</strong> 10.5 percent to grow with the increase in<br />

traffic described in Section (1)(ii).<br />

Findings:<br />

Base scenario <strong>for</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> change in delay: To estimate the volume to capacity ratio, take the<br />

3,400 vehicles <strong>and</strong> add the additional PCEs created by the trucks. Each truck on this segment<br />

occupies the same capacity as 2.6 passenger vehicles (From Figure A-1, each truck is worth 2.6<br />

PCEs). The road operates as if there are 3,060 autos plus 884 PCEs (340*2.6), identical to a<br />

scenario where there are no trucks <strong>and</strong> 3,994 passenger cars. The estimated V/C ratio is<br />

3,944/4,400, or 0.90. Using the BPR <strong>for</strong>mula, the congested speed <strong>for</strong> this segment is 63.8 mph<br />

((70) / (1 + 0.15 * [3,944/4,400] ^ 4) =63.8 mph). It takes 8.6 minutes to travel the 10-mile<br />

roadway in free-flow conditions <strong>and</strong> 9.4 minutes in congested conditions, which implies a delay<br />

<strong>of</strong> 0.8 minutes per vehicle under the operating conditions described in the scenario. For all 3,400<br />

vehicles, this implies a total delay <strong>of</strong> 2,720 minutes <strong>of</strong> delay, approximately 45 hours.<br />

Truck VMT increase scenario <strong>for</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> change in delay: In this scenario, truck volumes increase<br />

by 2.2 - 10.5 percent over the base scenario conditions, an increase <strong>of</strong> 8 - 36 trucks or an increase<br />

in total vehicles <strong>of</strong> 0.2 – 1.1 percent. The road now operates as though there are 3,060 autos plus<br />

904 - 978 PCEs (348*2.6; 376*2.6), identical to a scenario where there are no trucks <strong>and</strong><br />

3,964 - 4,038 passenger cars. The V/C ratio is 3,964/4,400 – 4,038/4,400, or 0.90 - 0.92. Using the<br />

BPR <strong>for</strong>mula, the congested speed <strong>for</strong> this segment is 63.7 - 63.3 mph. This marginally increases<br />

the travel time <strong>for</strong> the 10-mile segment to 9.4 - 9.5 minutes in congested conditions, which implies<br />

a delay <strong>of</strong> 0.8 - 0.9 minutes per vehicle. For all 3,408 - 3,436 vehicles, this implies a total delay <strong>of</strong><br />

2,726 - 3,092, approximately 45 - 52 hours – an increase in delay <strong>of</strong> 0 – 16 percent compared to the<br />

base scenario.<br />

This increase in delay is small compared to the overall travel time on this segment (although it is<br />

valid only at this particular point on the BPR curve.) Furthermore, the majority <strong>of</strong> VMT on U.S.<br />

freeways <strong>and</strong> arterial roadways occurs at acceptable levels <strong>of</strong> service (71 percent <strong>of</strong> urban VMT<br />

<strong>and</strong> 92 percent <strong>of</strong> rural VMT currently operates at level <strong>of</strong> service D or better) <strong>and</strong> impacts on<br />

these roadways are likely to be minimal. However, the marginal impact on delay will become<br />

larger as the capacity <strong>of</strong> the road is approached. For some roadways operating at or near<br />

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