Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium and Heavy ...
Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium and Heavy ... Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Medium and Heavy ...
Approach: Analysis first requires the identification of hypothetical regulations and, second, the identification of specific truck classes and shipment type that have potential for shifting given the regulations. Findings: The following is a sample of potential regulatory approaches and their possible impacts. The impacts are intended only to show the likely direction of shifting. A quantitative analysis would require a more specific understanding of alternative regulations, the distribution of vehicle classes, the development of complete weight and operating cost tables for each vehicle type and class, and potentially, research with vehicle owners to determine how these impacts might affect their purchase decisions. Regulations that would increase or decrease the weight of a vehicle. If fuel economy regulations were to require all trucks to implement weight-increasing or –decreasing technologies, there are several potential outcomes, depending on the current use of the truck. Two potential outcomes are described below: Trucks used for certain types of specialized shipments that have similar trucks in different classes are the most likely to be interchangeable. For example, a FedEx delivery truck can be one of three classes, including Class 3, 4, or 5. 18 If regulations were to increase the weight of a Class 3 FedEx delivery truck and make it Class 4, FedEx might decide to simply purchase more Class 4 trucks going forward. Other truck types that are fungible between Classes include city delivery (Classes 3, 4, and 5), conventional van (Classes 3 and 4), and conventional tractors (Classes 7 and 8). In the long-run, these changes might result in larger (or smaller) trucks being used for deliveries of all sorts, which would lead to an increase in travel. Trucks used for certain types of specialized shipments that do not have similar trucks in different classes and are not likely to be interchangeable may still be impacted by a policy that would increase or decrease the gross vehicle weight. License requirements for Class 7 vehicles make marginal Class 6 vehicles most likely to experience class-shift pressure from a regulation that would increase general gross vehicle weight. For example, if regulations were to require school buses to add a significant amount of weight, it is possible that they would become Class 7 vehicles. If that were to happen, school bus drivers would need to gain additional licensure or buses would need to counteract the weight gain and lose capacity. Other Class 6 vehicles that are marginal now (school bus, beverage trucks, rack trucks, and single axle vans) might bump over to Class 7, which would require special driver licensure. Regulations that would be implemented based on geography of truck travel (e.g., requiring aero fairings on trucks traveling outside of the city): Some fuel-saving technologies are only cost-effective for certain types of uses. For example, aerodynamic improvements are most beneficial for high-speed, long-haul travel, while hybridized drivetrains are most beneficial for stop-and-go duty cycles. Fuel economy could be directly regulated depending upon the intended use of the vehicle, or technology requirements imposed based on intended use. Under the assumption that a regulation would 18 Cummins, ―Heavy Duty Fuel Efficiency Regulations,‖ July 2009. - 10 -
e defined as something similar to ‗percent of miles of travel on roads within Census Urban Area boundaries,‘ trucks that travel half in the city and half outside of the city represent a likely marginal case. Trucks meeting the marginal description are likely to be trucks that, for example, carry goods between warehouses on the urban fringe and urban retailers. These carriers would likely make the argument that their travel was most often inside of the urbanarea boundary and, therefore, they should not be required to install fairings. They are not likely to shift classes to avoid regulation, as their shipments are not likely to change. Monitoring and enforcement of such a regulation would likely be a challenge, especially without the deployment of technologies such as global positioning systems (GPS) monitors as a basis for charging VMT fees. Additionally, urban area boundaries change after each decennial census, further reducing the practicality of this type of regulation. Regulations that impact a certain engine size: Regulations that would impact only a certain engine size would implicitly impact a certain class truck more than another. For example, if engine regulations were implemented on any engine with peak horsepower greater than 400, this would select for Class 8 trucks—either line-haul or other vocational loads. However, any regulations that would increase the operating cost for an engine sized for Class 8 use would be doing so for the class of trucks that are least likely to switch. Vocational trucks would still be used for job-specific purposes and other users of Class 8 trucks are extremely unlikely to shift to smaller trucks because labor costs would still far outweigh the increased operating cost that would accompany the required increase in shipments. For example, a steering column manufacturer in Vermont fills four 53-foot trailer-loads of steering columns bound for an automobile manufacturing plant in Mississippi. If he were to shift this into a smaller Class 7 carrying a 28-foot pup trailer, it would take nearly twice as many truckloads, doubling the total number of shipments. The impact of switching to Class 7 trucks will significantly increase total cost because fuel costs of Class 7 trucks are roughly 75 percent of Class 8 fuel costs ($0.48 compared to $0.634 per mile) and labor is likely to remain similar since the shipment requirements are comparable. 19 Total labor costs will double (eight trucks compared to four) and fuel expense will increase by about 50 percent (eight trucks * $0.48 - four trucks * $0.634), resulting in a much more expensive shipment. (v) Transportation Service and Performance Effects Key Question: Are regulations likely to reduce the quality of the services provided by vehicles, for example by affecting speed, reliability, or cargo capacity If so, what are the implications for costs and benefits Discussion: Initial research conducted by ERG for the concurrent white paper suggests that the impacts of fuel economy regulations on truck engine power output will be minimal, if any. Therefore, the impacts of fuel economy regulations on quality of service are likely to be minimal 19 Antich, ―Medium-Duty Operating Costs Increase in 2008-CY,‖ reprinted from Work Truck Magazine, May/June 2009 and American Transportation Research Institute, An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking, December 2008. - 11 -
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- Page 3 and 4: no effect on congestion as a result
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- Page 9: million gallons, for a combined reb
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- Page 15 and 16: capacity and with high truck volume
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- Page 19 and 20: truck-specific congestion pricing s
- Page 21 and 22: In Stockholm, the cordon pricing sc
- Page 23 and 24: Findings: The following studies eit
- Page 25: Figure A-1 Vehicle Passenger Car Eq
Approach: Analysis first requires the identification <strong>of</strong> hypothetical regulations <strong>and</strong>, second, the<br />
identification <strong>of</strong> specific truck classes <strong>and</strong> shipment type that have potential <strong>for</strong> shifting given the<br />
regulations.<br />
Findings: The following is a sample <strong>of</strong> potential regulatory approaches <strong>and</strong> their possible<br />
impacts. The impacts are intended only to show the likely direction <strong>of</strong> shifting. A quantitative<br />
analysis would require a more specific underst<strong>and</strong>ing <strong>of</strong> alternative regulations, the distribution<br />
<strong>of</strong> vehicle classes, the development <strong>of</strong> complete weight <strong>and</strong> operating cost tables <strong>for</strong> each vehicle<br />
type <strong>and</strong> class, <strong>and</strong> potentially, research with vehicle owners to determine how these impacts<br />
might affect their purchase decisions.<br />
Regulations that would increase or decrease the weight <strong>of</strong> a vehicle. If fuel economy regulations were to<br />
require all trucks to implement weight-increasing or –decreasing technologies, there are several<br />
potential outcomes, depending on the current use <strong>of</strong> the truck. Two potential outcomes are<br />
described below:<br />
Trucks used <strong>for</strong> certain types <strong>of</strong> specialized shipments that have similar trucks in different<br />
classes are the most likely to be interchangeable. For example, a FedEx delivery truck can be<br />
one <strong>of</strong> three classes, including Class 3, 4, or 5. 18 If regulations were to increase the weight <strong>of</strong> a<br />
Class 3 FedEx delivery truck <strong>and</strong> make it Class 4, FedEx might decide to simply purchase<br />
more Class 4 trucks going <strong>for</strong>ward. Other truck types that are fungible between Classes<br />
include city delivery (Classes 3, 4, <strong>and</strong> 5), conventional van (Classes 3 <strong>and</strong> 4), <strong>and</strong><br />
conventional tractors (Classes 7 <strong>and</strong> 8). In the long-run, these changes might result in larger<br />
(or smaller) trucks being used <strong>for</strong> deliveries <strong>of</strong> all sorts, which would lead to an increase in<br />
travel.<br />
Trucks used <strong>for</strong> certain types <strong>of</strong> specialized shipments that do not have similar trucks in<br />
different classes <strong>and</strong> are not likely to be interchangeable may still be impacted by a policy that<br />
would increase or decrease the gross vehicle weight. License requirements <strong>for</strong> Class 7<br />
vehicles make marginal Class 6 vehicles most likely to experience class-shift pressure from a<br />
regulation that would increase general gross vehicle weight. For example, if regulations were<br />
to require school buses to add a significant amount <strong>of</strong> weight, it is possible that they would<br />
become Class 7 vehicles. If that were to happen, school bus drivers would need to gain<br />
additional licensure or buses would need to counteract the weight gain <strong>and</strong> lose capacity.<br />
Other Class 6 vehicles that are marginal now (school bus, beverage trucks, rack trucks, <strong>and</strong><br />
single axle vans) might bump over to Class 7, which would require special driver licensure.<br />
Regulations that would be implemented based on geography <strong>of</strong> truck travel (e.g., requiring aero fairings on<br />
trucks traveling outside <strong>of</strong> the city):<br />
Some fuel-saving technologies are only cost-effective <strong>for</strong> certain types <strong>of</strong> uses. For example,<br />
aerodynamic improvements are most beneficial <strong>for</strong> high-speed, long-haul travel, while<br />
hybridized drivetrains are most beneficial <strong>for</strong> stop-<strong>and</strong>-go duty cycles. <strong>Fuel</strong> economy could<br />
be directly regulated depending upon the intended use <strong>of</strong> the vehicle, or technology<br />
requirements imposed based on intended use. Under the assumption that a regulation would<br />
18<br />
Cummins, ―<strong>Heavy</strong> Duty <strong>Fuel</strong> Efficiency Regulations,‖ July 2009.<br />
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